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I really like this. You can even realistically set up this scenario with the following (perhaps more suited to an AH thread): History proceeds as usual till AD 1218. The Qara Khitai was indeed annexed that year. The point of divergence occurs in the same year with the (in)famous Mongol...

Macro-history is fascinating and Spengler (and Toynbee, etc.) certainly had intriguing and interesting ideas for the study of history, even if he (and others) had flawed interpretations for some of them. We can use better historical evidence to refine their theories, but this does not mean that...

@Skallagrim never did this though. I encourage you to read his very first post in this thread: link where he makes a comparison between the roles that Charlemagne and the Carolingian disintegration function in Western civilization to what Agamemnon and the Greek Dark Ages function in Classical...

Well put @Skallagrim. Interesting point on the end of Civil War-Lex Hortensia analogue. You've certainly given me something to think about here. It makes me wonder if future historians will make similar comparisons with Roman Republican and American histories if they notice the striking...

:) I agree on all points. It would certainly be an amusing scenario. Though, I don't know if there's a 'frivolous' section on this forum to discuss it.

It's no problem, indeed. I don't think the future is set in stone, to be clear, but I think we can use macrohistorical analysis to predict general trends in a civilization's future. Trends, not the specific details. I will leave @Skallagrim to explain this better than me. Regarding Lincoln and...

Interesting, I think this is how it will go. I imagine Lincoln and FDR will be remembered in a similar way that Marcus Furius Camillus the 'Second Founder of Rome' was regarded by the Romans - as a capable statesman who provided steady leadership during a time of military and social struggles...