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Ottoman Hungary again requires a certain set of events, e.g. a moron on the throne (2nd in a row) who gets himself killed and then a civil war. Have Mattias sire a legitimate son ... Lots of other possible PODs in Hungarian history - Vadislav does not die at Varna, Vladislav Posthumous manages...

Yes, Syria could benefit from the new sea routes as much if not more than Italians. It also might benefit from a wetter climate. Europeans will notice the dissapearance of NA and Egypt only. The Arab perspective will be minimally broader - i.e. they will notice the east coast down to Mozambique...

I took a look at the Mamluks and in this period commanders of forces in Syria have just overthrown the Gov't in Cairo and are running the show. High potential for the "stranded" Syrian Mamluks to go on an empire building spree. At the very least they create a state of their own. And with...

Good catch - I thought they were at it until 1420 or so :)

In 1415 the Ottomans were still a post-Ankara mess, with a lively ongoing Civil War, I believe. They are not even within sniffing distance of Syria. The success of the 1453 siege is not a given - and here might never happen. Without Egypt to back them, the Syrian Mamluk garrisons can ascend to...