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Less luck than topography. Thanks to that horrifying wall of mountains that is the Himalayas, there's basically only a handful of routes between Asia and Europe. All of them except for the one through India require punching through several 'stans followed by invading Russia. On top of that...

Ask Tibet about that.

At this point, I suspect China's more likely to break out in monkey bites with India rather than Taiwan. Taiwan is a big deal in the news with a lot of people keeping their eyes on it, and any buildup China does to try to get enough shipping to invade is going to immediately draw the attention...

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Middle East. I'll even get really daring and say there will be an outbreak of violence between Israel and Palestine.