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You don't seem to understand the point of the model. It wasn't intended to model political changes, that's a) very difficult, and b) completely irrelevant. The whole point was to show that, regardless of political system, Russia would have industrialized.

That's not what they are arguing though. They aren't saying that Tsardom could have survived; instead, they argue that the industrialization of Russia would have happened even if communism hadn't happened.