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One important thing - soviets do not have means to send forces bigger then 1-2 armies to Siberia,which mean,they could not win on mountain of their dead soldiers. So,Japan could win there,if they have better tanks,or good AT guns.

You have a point - but,in this case,Japan could simply attack Siberia in 1941.Soviets could not defend it,and Japan would found everytching except rubber there. For rubber...ask England nicely,if they sell it,or prefer war. Becouse american public would not go to war becouse japs beat...

Yep.But,he still need pretext.In OTL he must made Japan attack him after oil embargo = but,if they found oil in Manchuria,that trick would not work. Yes,FDR wanted save commies - but coud not openly start war in the name of it. I remember some Gate story on fanfiction.net,when Itami meet...

Taking Siberia in 1941,and then making peace.It could work for Japan.

If they never invade China - yes.Especially,if they found oil in Manchuria - they almost did it in OTL. USA try hard to provoke them in OTL,but,if Japan have oil,then they could laugh at USA embargo. Smart thing would be attacking soviets to retake Siberia,which they hold in 1923,and then made...