raharris1973
Well-known member
The challenge is what’s stated in the title.
Unlikely to happen in 1914, but if war doesn't break out that year and instead things spiral out of control in 1917 once FJ dies and FF acquires the Austro-Hungarian thrones, then I could certainly see the French working-class not wanting to die in an imperialist war so that Serbia could acquire Bosnia.
Why that particular timing for that particular change? Do you see a decided trend to the left in France that would weaken commitment to the eastern alliance at all costs? An end to Poincare's term as Prez? Not even sure it would have been over yet.
Oh, so you are not just changing the year and the Austro-Hungarian monarch, you are most importantly changing how the war starts - with a Serb invasion of Bosnia, not a Viennese ultimatum to Serbia.
well then, …sure
The crisis within the empire begins to have affects elsewhere. In Bosnia, Serb nationalists set up an unofficial assembly to run parallel to the official institution. Franz Ferdinand is leery of using force to shut it down as such parliamentary spirit would be useful in the federal empire he envisages. Nevertheless he clamps down on its activities and newspapers, fuelling an undercurrent of dis-satisfaction.
There are also moves in Trieste and Fiume to establish Italian conventions of a similar ilk. These Franz Ferdiand represses ruthlessly, much to the anger of the Kingdom of Italy, and alarm of the German Empire.
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In Sarajevo this is immediately followed by the Bosnian Serb unofficial assembly voting on a resolution to call for annexation by Serbia.
Italy engineers similar votes in Trieste and Fiume, though they have far less legitimacy.
AFAIK contemporaries feared such an event. E.g. the French had a long list of socialists and labour union leaders to be arrested in case of war.
I suppose a concerted effort by the SPD in Germany and the left in France could torpedo the war. But I'd imagine civil wars in those countries instead.