Russia conquers Inner Manchuria in addition to conquering Outer Manchuria in 1858-1860

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WolfBear

Well-known member
What if, in addition to conquering Outer Manchuria in 1858-1860, Russia would have also conquered Inner Manchuria during this very same time? The logic behind this would be to expand even further and to secure a warm-water port for itself in the Far East. Expanding even further southward would not be realistic since Russia would have already reached Beijing, and I don't think that Chinese would look very favorably upon a Russian Emperor who declares himself the heir to the Kingdom of Heaven. FWIW, Russia can also conquer Mongolia and Xinjiang either during this time or sometime afterwards, such as during Yakub Beg's rebellion in the 1870s in regards to Xinjiang.

Anyway, what would the effects of all of this have been? FWIW, in real life, Inner Manchuria is currently China's lowest-fertility region:

Dr0bCAEWwAEGwgu.jpg
 
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Ricardolindo

Well-known member
WolfBear said:
What if, in addition to conquering Outer Manchuria in 1858-1860, Russia would have also conquered Inner Manchuria during this very same time? The logic behind this would be to expand even further and to secure a warm-water port for itself in the Far East. Expanding even further southward would not be realistic since Russia would have already reached Beijing, and I don't think that Chinese would look very favorably upon a Russian Emperor who declares himself the heir to the Kingdom of Heaven. FWIW, Russia can also conquer Mongolia and Xinjiang either during this time or sometime afterwards, such as during Yakub Beg's rebellion in the 1870s in regards to Xinjiang.

Anyway, what would the effects of all of this have been? FWIW, in real life, Inner Manchuria is currently China's lowest-fertility region:

Dr0bCAEWwAEGwgu.jpg
Click to expand...
For your information, one reason why Inner Manchuria's fertility rate is so low is because there are very few ethnic minorities there. Ethnic minorities were exempt from the one child policy.
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
Ricardolindo said:
For your information, one reason why Inner Manchuria's fertility rate is so low is because there are very few ethnic minorities there. Ethnic minorities were exempt from the one child policy.
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Southeast China also has few ethnic minorities and yet its TFR is higher:

nyq7vcddf8l31.jpg


BTW, here is a map showing Russian rule over northern Manchuria up to the present-day:

archive.ph

The Russian Empire in 2021 (NO WORLD WARS) : imaginarymaps

archived 11 Dec 2021 20:24:39 UTC
archive.ph archive.ph

a48af811a443cab768fecc1c774aa899405282dd.png
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
Ricardolindo said:
I edit "the" into "one". Please, edit it in the quote.
It's one reason. Another one is that Inner Manchuria is China's Rust Belt.
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Edited. Anyway, would it have still been a rust belt right now had it been Russian rather than Chinese?

Russia's southern Far East is currently experiencing natural population decline, but nowhere near as badly as core European Russia is:

Russia_natural_population_growth_rates_2015.PNG
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
History Learner said:
The Qing didn't allow Han settlement into Manchuria until the 1850s and 1860s, so it's entirely possible you might achieve a Russian plurality in the region.
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Might the Russians also be welcoming to Chinese immigrants in order to acquire their human capital for themselves?
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
History Learner said:
No, this is the 19th Century.
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The US already got a lot of immigrants during this time. And FWIW, I was also thinking about the long(er)-run here. Russia could get this territory in the 19th (or early 20th) centuries and only welcome a lot of Chinese immigrants into this territory later on.

FWIW, there was a precedent for Russia accepting high-quality immigrants even in the pre-industrial era with the Volga and other Germans.
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
@History Learner If Russia wasn't Communist in the 1930s, is there any realistic chance of Russia liberating Manchukuo from Japanese rule and then directly annexing Manchukuo to Russia?
 
TheRomanSlayer

TheRomanSlayer

Kayabangan, Dugo, at Dangal
I could think of the most realistic way that the Russians can technically gain control of the entirety of Manchuria would have been for the Taiping Rebellion to go a little bit better for the Taiping rebels, in that you could also have multiple rebellions breaking out against the Qing as well. Only problem is that the Dungan, Nian, Panthay, and other various Rebellions were hardly coordinated with the Taiping, but the long lasting damage done to the Qing was severe enough to cause its long term collapse.
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
TheRomanSlayer said:
I could think of the most realistic way that the Russians can technically gain control of the entirety of Manchuria would have been for the Taiping Rebellion to go a little bit better for the Taiping rebels, in that you could also have multiple rebellions breaking out against the Qing as well. Only problem is that the Dungan, Nian, Panthay, and other various Rebellions were hardly coordinated with the Taiping, but the long lasting damage done to the Qing was severe enough to cause its long term collapse.
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If Taiping succeeds, are we going to see China industrialize much earlier? And also do things such as birth registrations and censuses on a mass scale much earlier?
 
Buba

Buba

A total creep
Taking Inner Manchuria in 1860 (or 1895, for that matter) would had been a great idea if:
- immediately followed by Trans-Siberian RR, finished by 1875 or so;
- maintaining ban on Han inflow;
- pouring in c.200k European settlers per year for several decades.

Otherwise Manchuria is lost as in OTL when the Japanese get serious, Britain stays paranoid, and internal mess is at OTL level.

Chinese - or other - birthrates today and 2nd half of 19th century events? Connection is like with that of the state of tide at London Tower Bridge ...

My data (I once downloaded a cute table) puts total population of Manchuria in 1890 at 7M. And this is two decades or so when the (sometimes spottily enforced) bans on Han immigation were lifted.
The above figure includes 4,5M Han. Hence in 1860 the land was very empty.
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
Buba said:
Taking Inner Manchuria in 1860 (or 1895, for that matter) would had been a great idea if:
- immediately followed by Trans-Siberian RR, finished by 1875 or so;
- maintaining ban on Han inflow;
- pouring in c.200k European settlers per year for several decades.

Otherwise Manchuria is lost as in OTL when the Japanese get serious, Britain stays paranoid, and internal mess is at OTL level.

Chinese - or other - birthrates today and 2nd half of 19th century events? Connection is like with that of the state of tide at London Tower Bridge ...

My data (I once downloaded a cute table) puts total population of Manchuria in 1890 at 7M. And this is two decades or so when the (sometimes spottily enforced) bans on Han immigation were lifted.
The above figure includes 4,5M Han. Hence in 1860 the and was very empty.
Click to expand...

Why ban the Han? They could be successfully Russified with enough education and assimilation just like the Sakhalin Koreans could in real life, no?
 
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raharris1973

Well-known member
WolfBear said:
Interesting that this settlement didn't extend to Outer Manchuria by 1860.
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It might have extended to Outer Manchuria by 1860. I don't how many Han Chinese people actually lived there, but before Russian rule, Vladivostok had a Chinese name, Haishenwai, I think it was. Direct translation means "small seaside village". Documents or maps from the Mongol/Yuan dynasty refer to a settlement at the site called Yongmingcheng, which to my eyes, appears almost as much Korean as Chinese.
 
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