Alternate History War of Bavarian Succession - a NOT greedy Joseph

[Buba]

In OTL Karl Theodore seems to have been amenable, but Joseph disregarded the common wisdom of "go big or go home".
So, what if Joseph "went big":
- all of Austrian Netherlands (including Luksemburg) are given to Karl/House Wittelsbach, attached forevermore to Juelich-Berg. This almost contiguous territory (the narrow slivers of bishoprics of Liege and Koeln split it into three) comes with a royal title - "Kingdom of Belgium/Batavia/Lower Lotharingia" - to further sweeten the deal. Same as in OTL the two electoral seats of Bavaria and Palatinate are combined;
- some Further Austria holdings are given to Karl Theodore's bastards, making them hereditary Fursts (Daddy happy!).

In return Bavaria (the smaller, pre 1806 edition) is added to Habsburg lands. Naturally, Prussia violently protests, but support (moral or material) for its opposition to the swap inside Germany is lesser. France and Britian, as we remember, are out of the picture as they are otherwise occuupied with the American Revolt. Russia is bought off with enthusiastic support for anti-Ottoman plans, i.e the 1781 alliance is brought forward by a few years.

Could this work?

 

[ATP]

In OTL Karl Theodore seems to have been amenable, but Joseph disregarded the common wisdom of "go big or go home".
So, what if Joseph "went big":
- all of Austrian Netherlands (including Luksemburg) are given to Karl/House Wittelsbach, attached forevermore to Juelich-Berg. This almost contiguous territory (the narrow slivers of bishoprics of Liege and Koeln split it into three) comes with a royal title - "Kingdom of Belgium/Batavia/Lower Lotharingia" - to further sweeten the deal. Same as in OTL the two electoral seats of Bavaria and Palatinate are combined;
- some Further Austria holdings are given to Karl Theodore's bastards, making them hereditary Fursts (Daddy happy!).

In return Bavaria (the smaller, pre 1806 edition) is added to Habsburg lands. Naturally, Prussia violently protests, but support (moral or material) for its opposition to the swap inside Germany is lesser. France and Britian, as we remember, are out of the picture as they are otherwise occuupied with the American Revolt. Russia is bought off with enthusiastic support for anti-Ottoman plans, i.e the 1781 alliance is brought forward by a few years.

Could this work?

Look good on paper,but....i lack knowledge about Habsburg affairs from that time.Maybe?
Well,if Habsburg and Russia go after turks,we could avoid Second Partition of Poland here.But - Revolution still happen.
In that case - stronger Bavaria could smash it early ?

 

[Buba]

In that case - stronger Bavaria could smash it early ?

There is no Bavaria here, it is part of Austria. There is Belgium - more or less OTL Belgium, Luksemburg and most of Nordrhein part of Nordrhein-Westfallen.
Revolution still happen and Marat and Rpobespierre make red terror and kgbistan

 

[PsihoKekec]

So much of catholic Germans is in one entity, which would have interesting long term consequences, if it could work. München-Vienna dynamic would be intersting, how dysfunctional would it be, would the Revolutionary/Napoleonic wars strenghten it or break it? You'd need someone much more knowledgable on both Austria and Bavaria though.

In Belgium (or whatever it would be named), the Germans are now a population of noteworthy size, so it wont be just Flems and Waloons disliking each other, but Flems, Waloons and Germans disliking eachother, making the country even more dysfunctional than OTL.

 

[Skallagrim]

Very pleasant scenario, and yes, ties in well with that other "evergreen": earlier Austro-Russian war against the Turks in the 1780s. Note that in the OTL war of '87, the Austrians were plagued by terrible luck, and vast numbers died of disease, while the Ottomans lucked out and barely suffered disease losses. Also, Austria had to bow out early due to the French Revolution. If the war occurs earlier, things could turn out quite differently, so Catherine getting her "Greek Plan" and Austria getting a battle-tested and non-decimated army just in time for French shenanigans is a very real option.

Combine that with the actual main scenario here, and you could be looking at pretty great prospects for both the Habsburgs and the Romanovs.

Note also that a Wittelsbach "Belgium" (I think they'd name it Lotharingia, though) would be a high priority target for French revolutionary expansionist zeal. So they won't be dallying around: they'll be 100% anti-French, and committed. Combine that with the potentially quite improved Autrian situation, a recent Austro-Russian triumph and corresponding "good feelings" between the two, and a British drive to stop Revolutionary France at all costs and in alliance with whoever it takes...

Well. The French Republic may be getting curb-stomped early on, due to a far stronger response from the established powers. But even if it's not a total curb-stomp, we could still easily see the French losing before Napoleon even rises to the top. Radicalism gets pretty thorougly discredited as a result. (The common notion may be: "the 'conservative revolution' in America worked, while the 'radical revolution' in France led to mass murder and then total defeat".)

 

[Buba]

Flems, Waloons and Germans

Nederlands and Deutsch speakers will correct me here.
I've read that if a German person from around Aachen goes to Venlo or Maastricht to shop and speaks in the patois they learned from Oma and Opa, then they will get along fine as the locals speak the same dialect on the Lower Frankish continuum. Standard Nederlands versus Standard school-taught German is a different matter.
The dynamics of this Lothringen would be very different to OTL - the French speaking elite will have to contend with Lower Frankish speaking elites - who also speak perfect parisian French, BTW. Look at Karl Theodore for an example of Francophillia and love for French culture and actresses. BUT these German speaking elites will be - as noted - (mostly) Catholic and not 100% Calvinist Heretics.

improved Autrian situation, a recent Austro-Russian triumph and corresponding "good feelings" between the two, and a British drive to stop Revolutionary France at all costs and in alliance with whoever it takes...

For the Bayern for Niederlothringisches swap to happen Prussia needs to be spanked in some manner. She may still be hurting and a sore loser those 10-15 years later ...

 

[ATP]

There is no Bavaria here, it is part of Austria. There is Belgium - more or less OTL Belgium, Luksemburg and most of Nordrhein part of Nordrhein-Westfallen.
Revolution still happen and Marat and Rpobespierre make red terror and kgbistan

Thanks ! then,like others arleady mentioned,Turkey would be arleady beaten,Catharina would get Constantinopole, and Poland here would remain her vassals, i do not see anybody here falling for prussian "help"
Belgium and Austria with better army should be enough to beat Revolution,if not,russians would do the trick.

Much better Europe,even if Poland remain as russian vassals.And Prussia would never get their unification,and if they try,they could be partitiones,not us !