The "baile funk" dance parties have been called off. Some open-air drug markets are closed for business. Gangs and militias have imposed strict curfews. Coronavirus is coming, and Rio de Janeiro's lawless favelas are gearing up for the onslaught.
www.reuters.com
Even gangs are taking it seriously.
You know, until yesterday, I would have agreed with this, but since yesterday night, things are happening in Brazil that make me think the lockdown will end at most by the end of next week, if not by the end of this one.
I'll try to explain. The biggest problem with the lockdown in Brazil is there is no money to help those who will stay at home. The budget for the current year already has a built-in deficit of some... R$ 129 billion(slightly less than US$ 30 billion), IIRC. The stimulus package already on the way will fuck up economic recovery for some time, but it can't be helped, it's that or have the economy break down right now. But that stimulus doesn't have, like some of what I hear for the US, a subsidy for those who will stay home and not work.
This is already(lockdown has been on effect in Rio since March 16th, on other States and cities, it started one, two days later) playing havoc with poorer people. Today, I've read an article(can't find it now) where it showed 3 days(IIRC, that's why I was trying to find out the article) without work was enough for more than 70% of families living in slums to reduce spending. For 32% of the slum-residing families, 3 days without work is enough to make them skip meals. Also, the small commercial establishments and companies aren't able to keep paying their employees where there isn't work, even for an interruption that is less than one month. So, they're firing their employees. I'm not even mentioning the effects of closing down lottery houses(which also work like banks, and for many on the dole are the only way to receive their benefits). Bus companies in Rio de Janeiro(main mass transport here) have already said they will be shutting down on Friday if things don't go back to normal.
All in all, keeping a lockdown for more than two weeks in Brazil might be making people choose between starvation and COVID-19, and it's obvious which one people will choose. To make things even worse, people in the same situation I am(able to do home office and with guaranteed income) are getting antsy and violating the lockdown by themselves. I went out this morning(first time I went out since last Thursday) and saw a lot of people running on the beach. Not enough to make it a normal day, but way more than what I expected. This on the neighborhood that has had the largest number of cases in Rio de Janeiro City until now(because they were the ones who could go on a trip to Italy on Carnival).
In the end, I'm expecting the lockdown will fail soon, because people simply won't obey it. And, for the poorest ones, who can fault them?
Ah, those slum curfew reports? So far, I've seen them being applied on two different locations. Which would be, all in all, some 5-6 slums(although big ones). Rio de Janeiro has more than a 1,000 slums withing its city limits(22% of the population of the city).
www.foxnews.com
www.newscientist.com
www.koco.com
