WI the Franco-Prussian War went the other way?

[Circle of Willis]

@Circle of Willis Here's a question for you: If Max lives, gets his place back in the A-H line of succession after leaving Mexico (as opposed to being executed there like in real life), and manages to live to age 90 (not impossible considering that his brother FJ lived to age 86), dying in 1922, is Max likely to be as pro-peace as FF was in real life?

Impossible to tell, too many things will have changed between 1867 and 1914-22 - likely including Max himself. For all we know, a living Max could've been embittered by his defeat in Mexico and turned his back on liberalism, ironically becoming more of the sort of stalwart reactionary FJ would've approved of. Alternatively, he could've retained his old views and been a positive influence on his nephew Rudolf, who apparently was more liberal than FJ and clashed with the latter because of it. If the butterflies (including a good relationship with his like-minded uncle) get Rudolf to survive, well I do believe you've cracked open a jar full of butterflies over A-H's head. Either way, Max'd probably be right back to worrying about the Austrian Navy during his brother's long reign and would primarily be focused on keeping it in tip-top shape after Tegetthoff's death (unless the butterflies spare him too).

In any case, I don't think this is a good thread to discuss Maximilian's survival and the implications thereof further. After all, my original POD was that France wins the FPW and the ill-fated archduke will have already been dead for three years by the time that happens.

 

[sillygoose]

@Circle of Willis Here's a question for you: If Max lives, gets his place back in the A-H line of succession after leaving Mexico (as opposed to being executed there like in real life), and manages to live to age 90 (not impossible considering that his brother FJ lived to age 86), dying in 1922, is Max likely to be as pro-peace as FF was in real life?

@sillygoose I also want to hear your own answer to this question of mine.

Sorry, not that familiar with Max and how his survival might change things.

 

[WolfBear]

Impossible to tell, too many things will have changed between 1867 and 1914-22 - likely including Max himself. For all we know, a living Max could've been embittered by his defeat in Mexico and turned his back on liberalism, ironically becoming more of the sort of stalwart reactionary FJ would've approved of. Alternatively, he could've retained his old views and been a positive influence on his nephew Rudolf, who apparently was more liberal than FJ and clashed with the latter because of it. If the butterflies (including a good relationship with his like-minded uncle) get Rudolf to survive, well I do believe you've cracked open a jar full of butterflies over A-H's head. Either way, Max'd probably be right back to worrying about the Austrian Navy during his brother's long reign and would primarily be focused on keeping it in tip-top shape after Tegetthoff's death (unless the butterflies spare him too).

In any case, I don't think this is a good thread to discuss Maximilian's survival and the implications thereof further. After all, my original POD was that France wins the FPW and the ill-fated archduke will have already been dead for three years by the time that happens.

I have now created a new thread about this here:

https://www.the-sietch.com/index.php?threads/the-effects-of-a-surviving-archduke-maximilian-of-austria-hungary.7423/

Please feel free to post any additional thoughts of yours on this over there. That said, though, there is one thing that I want to briefly add here: I wonder if Max and FF might bond over the fact that both of their children (adopted Mexican children in Max's case) would be incapable of ever having any succession rights to the A-H thrones. Thoughts on this? You can respond to this in the other thread if you want to.

 

[WolfBear]

Oops, misread your intention there. Yeah, in that case Max's survival really wouldn't have mattered. I really don't think Franz Josef or any other Habsburg would have been content with allowing their centuries-old patrimony to pass into the hands of some Mexicans who are not only obviously not Habsburgs by blood, but not even European nobility (being instead the descendants of an originally-minor-gentry family from Mexico) and have no real connection to A-H. They'd probably just be treated like the Hohenbergs IMO.

Question for you: If Maximilian lives, is there any chance that he could divorce Charlotte/Carlota and marry someone else (likely some other princess) in the hope of providing him an heir? Especially if Austro-Hungarian Crown Prince Rudolf still commit suicide on schedule and thus Max becomes the new heir to the A-H throne. Max would be almost 60 then but males have no fertility age limit, unlike females. But of course I would presume that divorce or even an annulment of one's marriage in a heavily Catholic late 19th century monarchy would be extraordinarily controversial and thus unlikely to actually be done or possibly even tried, right?

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Historically, getting baited by Bismarck into the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71 turned out to pretty much be an unmitigated disaster for France. The French army started the war with superior infantry equipment in the form of the advanced Chassepot rifle and an innovative pseudo-machine gun in the mitrailleuse, but their failure to deploy these (especially the latter) in a way that'd maximize their utility coupled with major Prussian advantages in mobilization, leadership and the long-range firepower of their Krupp guns = a recipe for catastrophe, and it showed with France going on to lose almost every battle (including every single one of the major battles) of the war.

The war ended with French Emperor Napoleon III being taken captive within two months, his empire falling altogether, the Paris Commune briefly rising up, and the unified German Empire emerging & taking Alsace-Lorraine from France, instilling a grudge among the French that lasted all the way up to WW1. The threat of German hegemony also forced France and Britain to increasingly set aside their ancient rivalry, with the weakened France generally conceding more to Britain than the other way around (ex. the Fashoda incident).

So, what if the French had managed to miraculously offset their numerous disadvantages and score a victory over Prussia & the rest of the German alliance instead, as Napoleon III thought he could pull off at the start? General Adolphe Niel's military reforms to increase & accelerate the pace of French mobilization being introduced earlier, Marshal Bazaine not being so criminally incompetent, Moltke the Elder & the rest of the Prussian general staff catching a severe case of stupidity-inducing brainworms - any or all of these and more can serve as the POD for the French victory. That victory doesn't necessarily have to include French cuirassiers parading in Berlin either, even 'just' thwarting German unification for a couple decades and camping on the Saarland would suffice. How would an enduring Second French Empire and a delayed German unification affect the rest of the 19th century and potentially the early 20th?

Subbed and following this timeline.

 

[Basileus_Komnenos]

Question for you: If Maximilian lives, is there any chance that he could divorce Charlotte/Carlota and marry someone else (likely some other princess) in the hope of providing him an heir?

In otl he seemed very much in love with his wife. Additionally unlike with Josephine she was faithful to him.

Maximillian and FJ were also at odds with each other at times so he wouldn't really be affecting much within the empire aside for maybe providing another moderating more liberal advice for FJ.

Maximillian not dying though would probably be a boon for Franco-Austrian relations as despite their precarious relationship, Franz-Joseph was very pissed at Napoleon III for basically getting his brother killed. That was one of the reason why he didn't get involved in the war to help out Napoleon III even though the possibility was put out there.

If you want a surviving Second French Empire, your best bet is probably having Austria winning the Austro-Prussian War. Napoleon and everyone was counting on an Austrian victory and from there he planned on using the situation to gain more territory with his designs on Luxembourg, and likely parts, if not the entirety of the Rhineland for himself. This would of course make Bavaria nervous because of France's border-gore, and the Pfalz being the way to resolve it.

Of course if he makes his intentions clear to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Netherlands, leaving Antwerp out of French hands, that might be enough to potentially not upset the British as much.

An opportunity to do this would have been at Konnigratz where von Moltke, Bismarck, and King Wilhelm were all in the line of fire and nearly got killed by Austrian artillery. A loss like this would have crippled Prussia and its allies, and Austria could have framed it at restoring the status quo in the German Confederation, with France using that pretense to punish the "Prussian upstarts."

Austria here would have retaking Silesia for sure and they probably would have insisted on Saxony being restored to its pre 1815 status quo as well as a restoration of Hannover and the other states which Prussia occupied/disposed.

 

[ATP]

In otl he seemed very much in love with his wife. Additionally unlike with Josephine she was faithful to him.

Maximillian and FJ were also at odds with each other at times so he wouldn't really be affecting much within the empire aside for maybe providing another moderating more liberal advice for FJ.

Maximillian not dying though would probably be a boon for Franco-Austrian relations as despite their precarious relationship, Franz-Joseph was very pissed at Napoleon III for basically getting his brother killed. That was one of the reason why he didn't get involved in the war to help out Napoleon III even though the possibility was put out there.

If you want a surviving Second French Empire, your best bet is probably having Austria winning the Austro-Prussian War. Napoleon and everyone was counting on an Austrian victory and from there he planned on using the situation to gain more territory with his designs on Luxembourg, and likely parts, if not the entirety of the Rhineland for himself. This would of course make Bavaria nervous because of France's border-gore, and the Pfalz being the way to resolve it.

Of course if he makes his intentions clear to respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Netherlands, leaving Antwerp out of French hands, that might be enough to potentially not upset the British as much.

An opportunity to do this would have been at Konnigratz where von Moltke, Bismarck, and King Wilhelm were all in the line of fire and nearly got killed by Austrian artillery. A loss like this would have crippled Prussia and its allies, and Austria could have framed it at restoring the status quo in the German Confederation, with France using that pretense to punish the "Prussian upstarts."

Austria here would have retaking Silesia for sure and they probably would have insisted on Saxony being restored to its pre 1815 status quo as well as a restoration of Hannover and the other states which Prussia occupied/disposed.

If both Bismarck and Wilhelm died,Prussia would still win on battlefield.It was not horde,when after kiling khagan his commanders start fighting each other.

If you want change that,gave austrians better rifles - it almost happened in OTL,but they refuse to made breachloaders ,becouse they just made big manufactury for older rifles.

And then you could kill Bismarck.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Austrians needed better commanders, Prussian divisions arrived towards Königsgratz piecemeal, setting themselves for defeat in detail, but Austrian commanders passively waited for Prussian forces to assemble themselves and engage them.

 

[Buba]

I've also read that the Austrian were a shambles, having sent off their train and left without food or - more importantly - water. The hungry, thirsty troops were incapacitated by their own High Command.
A better commander and not fucking up the basics and they'd had won Koenigsgratz with smoothbore flintlocks.
Prussian tactics were pretty much on the level of Dothraki from ASOAIF - charge screaming. If repulsed, charge again but scream louder ...

 

[ATP]

Austrians needed better commanders, Prussian divisions arrived towards Königsgratz piecemeal, setting themselves for defeat in detail, but Austrian commanders passively waited for Prussian forces to assemble themselves and engage them.

You have a point.

I've also read that the Austrian were a shambles, having sent off their train and left without food or - more importantly - water. The hunger, thirsty troops were incapacitated by their own High Command.
A better commander and not fucking up the basics and they'd had won Koenigsgratz with smoothbore flintlocks.
Prussian tactics were pretty much on the level of Dothraki from ASOAIF - charge screaming. If repulsed, charge again but scream louder ...

You also have a point.