Or how many people voted for Pete Buttigieg 'coz he's gay?
Which Post-1900 Presidential Candidates Could've Surpassed LBJ's Popular Vote Share?
- Thread starter Zyobot
- Start date
Or how many people voted for Pete Buttigieg 'coz he's gay?
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Frivolity this, frivolity that. If those same voters are surprised at how the political class made it at as far as it has, then America may very well be screwed, as is.
Per my previous posts on the topic, I've also been wondering about an ATL 1952 election in which Truman hangs on by a thread throughout primary season, only for the General to crush him by Reaganite margins on Election Night proper? If a rather "milquetoast" candidate like Adlai Stevenson got his ass kicked IOTL, then surely, an unpopular incumbent like Truman will get buried six feet underground ITTL.
Maybe you can have Truman cheat on his wife with his daughter while you're at it in order to have Truman lose all fifty states on election day?
strunkenwhite
Well-known member
I was going to say that nobody in the 21st century could rack up the kind of victory proposed, but then my mind also turned to the 2004 election. Suppose Bush had stayed the fuck out of Iraq and had resisted the Patriot Act's trampling of civil liberties? Afghanistan would go better with America's attention undivided, and Bush would be well-regarded by people who distrusted the Patriot Act (especially if his opponent is still Kerry who voted for it). If Bush's veto was overridden and he took the L and went on with implementation then the act's supporters may not even hold it against him; 'the best person to wield power is the one reluctant to do so' is a popular idea.
And I mean, maybe Katrina just didn't happen? While I'm wishing for things.
Would help if the dot-com recession began in late 2000 rather than in early 2001 so that way Clinton gets the blame for it.
Sergeant Foley
Well-known member
Didn't Nixon come close to breaking that record in 1972?
If you actually go and look, the Dot Com recession DID start in 2000, the bubble began bursting well before the election took place, the media, being the media, just didn't talk about it until after Bush took office in order to blame him.
So what you're really wishing for is an actual unbiased media that isn't in the tank for Democrats...
Without that... well, you're actually probably looking at multiple R presidents in the 20th Century being able to pass 60%. Nixon, Reagan, HW in 88, W in 2004... with an actual honest media that isn't in the tank for leftism Clinton may not even win in 92, and Obama certainly wouldn't have won in 08...
I think many of you underestimate just how much water the media has been carrying for the Dems since the mid 20th century. If they were honest and truly neutral the number of massive scandles that would have sunk or prevented most Dem presidents since Carter is simply to numerous to list...
49ersfootball
Well-known member
As of 2022: Reagan is the last US President to win reelection by double digits.
If one wants to make a cynical observation, the US electorate was presumably much whiter back in the 1980s than it is right now. When most minorities vote for the Democrats, and their share of the US population has significantly grown, it became significantly harder for Republicans to win by double-digits. And Democrats find it difficult to win by double-digits because their Wokeness alienates white working-class whites, who have defected to the Republicans in huge numbers over the last 30+ years.
49ersfootball
Well-known member
Clinton could've cracked double digits in 1996.
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Wasn't there something about Democratic turnout being much lower than expected, which ultimately brought Clinton's victory into "comfortable" rather than blowout territory?
Yes, he could have. But the Democratic Party was nowhere near as Woke back then.
Interestingly enough, I personally dislike Clinton for his 1996 welfare reform and specifically for the part that required parents who are on welfare to seek child support. I think that the current child support situation is extremely disadvantageous for males, with them literally needing to choose between abstaining from PIV sex with all fertile and potentially fertile cisgender females and surgical castration if they want to have 100% guaranteed odds of avoiding the risk of being forced to pay child support for 18+ years afterwards. Even vasectomies and bilateral epididymectomies can fail even when these two methods are combined and are also combined with a bilateral salpingectomy on the woman's part.
Welfare reform and/or the Defense of Marriage Act might have had something to do with this.
49ersfootball
Well-known member
Had JFK been assassinated in October 1964 instead of in November 1963, I would have expected LBJ's 1964 landslide to be even larger. Why? Well, take a look at these polls:
news.gallup.com
In such a scenario, the election would be held right after JFK's assassination and thus LBJ would get even more of a sympathy boost than he did in real life. He might even crack 65% of the total nationwide popular vote if he's lucky!
Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008
Gallup historical election data chart the presidential election campaigns from 1936 to 2008.
news.gallup.com
In such a scenario, the election would be held right after JFK's assassination and thus LBJ would get even more of a sympathy boost than he did in real life. He might even crack 65% of the total nationwide popular vote if he's lucky!
49ersfootball
Well-known member
As of 2022: LBJ is the most recent Dem President to win by double digits.
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Had JFK been assassinated in October 1964 instead of in November 1963, I would have expected LBJ's 1964 landslide to be even larger. Why? Well, take a look at these polls:
Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008
Gallup historical election data chart the presidential election campaigns from 1936 to 2008.
In such a scenario, the election would be held right after JFK's assassination and thus LBJ would get even more of a sympathy boost than he did in real life. He might even crack 65% of the total nationwide popular vote if he's lucky!
Agreed he'd receive the boost of a lifetime if Kennedy were assassinated in '64, but I'd guess that the trajectory of the race leading up to this depends on other, much larger variables.
Namely, whoever the GOP nominee is in a TL where his death is delayed and whether or not JFK still runs. I recall hearing (but not having had the chance to verify) a claim of Kennedy being content to serve out one term, so if he's on his way out anyway, I wonder what the assassin's reasons would be for offing him, Lee Harvey Oswald or not?
I've never heard that JFK wanted to retire in 1964. What's your source for this?
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Don't recall, but could easily have misremembered that. Read it a while ago, too, but will see if I can find it to verify.
Yeah, please let me know what you find in regards to this.