What would be the impact if *both* Italy and the Ottoman Empire remained neutral throughout all WWI?

WolfBear

Well-known member
Yes,that is what they should do.Russia would be really second world army now,and probable economy,too.
Not mention 100 millions communism victim less.
Better world for everybody,with possible excemption of Poland - but,we supposed to suffer for World salvation,so it would be OK ! ;)

You'll still have your independence west of the Curzon Line, most likely.
 

ATP

Well-known member
You'll still have your independence west of the Curzon Line, most likely.
And recover territories occupied by germans,too.Russian plans for vassal polish state were like that.Maybe even Oder river line.
In that case,it would be better for Poland then OTL - the same territory,but without 50 years of communism.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
And recover territories occupied by germans,too.Russian plans for vassal polish state were like that.Maybe even Oder river line.
In that case,it would be better for Poland then OTL - the same territory,but without 50 years of communism.

You might not get Lower Silesia south of the eastern Neisse (between the eastern and western Neisse) in this TL. Otherwise agreed, though. :)
 

strunkenwhite

Well-known member
If Italy is neutral, what are the odds of it becoming a vehicle for American trade with Germany? That would not only alleviate the supply situation to some degree but, I would think, plausibly butterfly away American entry on the Entente side. (Germany would have very strong reason to avoid antagonizing America by attacking American shipping to Britain, no Zimmerman telegram, etc. On the American side, the interests are less lopsided in the Entente's favor.)
 

stevep

Well-known member
If Italy is neutral, what are the odds of it becoming a vehicle for American trade with Germany? That would not only alleviate the supply situation to some degree but, I would think, plausibly butterfly away American entry on the Entente side. (Germany would have very strong reason to avoid antagonizing America by attacking American shipping to Britain, no Zimmerman telegram, etc. On the American side, the interests are less lopsided in the Entente's favor.)

Its likely although who would be supplying the shipping. The EPs have an even greater chance of stopping goods going into the Med to Italy for inspection for contraband than into the North Sea. [Gibraltar, along with French colonies and Corsica and then Malta can also act as basis for such forces.] I'm not sure what happened before Italy joined the EPs OTL but expect there was some blockade system in place.

Germany is still likely to try USW as it quickly proves to be a way to hurt the EP's naval superiority and trade and that will affect US citizens - such as with the Lusitania - and also attacks on neutral ships from the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway etc which will also upset at least some Americans. Plus US business will still be largely with the EP as they have the cash for US imports and the shipping to carry it so the US will tighten their economic links with the EP. Add in other actions such as the use of poisoned gas, attacks on neutrals, terror bombing by zeppelins and then bombers etc and that will cause tensions with some in the US. The allies will reply in kind in some of those areas - poisoned gas and bomber raids etc but since the Germans were the initiators their going to face the biggest blame.

As such there are going to be tensions and assuming no major change in the German leadership - plus the problems the CPs will have with a neutral Turkey - I can see it being desperate/rash enough for things like the OTL sabotage activities inside the US and even the Zimmerman telegram.

Its likely that the incentives for the US to enter the war - unless Germany escalates things faster than OTL which they might do if desperate - will be less but then by early 1917 your likely to see a CP collapse so it could be rendered a moot point.
 

ATP

Well-known member
If Italy is neutral, what are the odds of it becoming a vehicle for American trade with Germany? That would not only alleviate the supply situation to some degree but, I would think, plausibly butterfly away American entry on the Entente side. (Germany would have very strong reason to avoid antagonizing America by attacking American shipping to Britain, no Zimmerman telegram, etc. On the American side, the interests are less lopsided in the Entente's favor.)
USA could do the same through Denmark or Holland.
 

stevep

Well-known member
USA could do the same through Denmark or Holland.

Germany tried to bypass the blockade via goods through neutral countries. The EPs were able to restrict this somewhat. The US was opposed to this procedure when neutral as it reduced their trade with the CPs then did a 180 and encouraged further tightening once they became a belligerent.
 

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