What if the Turkish Republic of Oct 1, 1924 is ISOT back 50 years, or 100 years?

[raharris1973]

What if the Turkish Republic of Oct 1, 1924 is ISOT back to Oct 1,1874 (shortly before the Bosnia-Bulgaria revolts and war with Russia) , or to Oct 1 1824 (during the Greek independence war, before foreign military intervention, but after the first British loan)?

We once before had an Erdogan Turkey, ISOT'ing back 2 centuries or more, predictably a wank.

We also previously had a 1924 Turkey ISOT'ing back 10 years to 1914, which is more the inspiration for this thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-turkey-1924-isot-to-1914.517906/#post-22700412

Despite the OP's instinct it might be a wank it turned out to be a Turkey screw because lack of recovery from WWI and Greco-Turkish war damage left 1924 Turkey much weaker than 1914 OE despite any future knowledge and higher tech, and its possession of Kars, property of 1914 Russia, automatically puts it in the war with no escape.

How are Turkey's and Ataturk's chances in a 50 year ISOT or a 100 year one? They have more freedom to pursue a strategy of their own choice without the enemy being literally at the home gates posing a threat of extinction. Their tech advantages count for more. They start off with larger imperial buffers, even though Ataturk is ideologically, not so interested in Ottoman universalism, nor Pan-Islam, nor Pan-Turkism.

 

[Buba]

Can Turkey even make its own ammunition?

 

[raharris1973]

It's going to be able to improvise at least small-arms ammo production. Larger artillery shells, harder to say.

 

[WolfBear]

We also previously had a 1924 Turkey ISOT'ing back 10 years to 1914, which is more the inspiration for this thread:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-turkey-1924-isot-to-1914.517906/#post-22700412

Despite the OP's instinct it might be a wank it turned out to be a Turkey screw because lack of recovery from WWI and Greco-Turkish war damage left 1924 Turkey much weaker than 1914 OE despite any future knowledge and higher tech, and its possession of Kars, property of 1914 Russia, automatically puts it in the war with no escape.

Will 1914 Russia really care all that much about Kars knowing just how much going to war with the Ottoman Empire helped screw Russia over later on? Had the Ottomans remained neutral in WWI, there might have very well been no Bolshevik coup in Russia in late 1917.

IMHO, the smart thing for 1914 Russia to do would be to accept the new Turkish borders as they are. Maybe seek revenge for the Armenian Genocide later. Maybe. After WWI is actually over. Russia would be allowed to keep Batumi as it is, after all. That's where a lot of Russia's investments in the region have gone to, IIRC.

 

[raharris1973]

Can Turkey even make its own ammunition?

Are you saying Turkey would end up completely helpless, at least after expending its existing 1924 ammo and fuel stocks? Or that it would have to down-tech after doing so, and therefore be nothing special in terms of weapons?

 

[raharris1973]

Will 1914 Russia really care all that much about Kars knowing just how much going to war with the Ottoman Empire helped screw Russia over later on? Had the Ottomans remained neutral in WWI, there might have very well been no Bolshevik coup in Russia in late 1917.

There is a wee little problem with this argument being credible to the 1914 Russians. The only people dispensing the 'future history knowledge' that the Great War would be disastrous and empire-ending, and that Ottoman blockage of straits significantly helped make it so, would be the Turks, who the Russians would see as having very self-interested in motives in saying that is the future whether it is true or not. The one physical manifestation showing to the Russians showing that they did poorly in the future would simply be the fact that Turkey suddenly controls a future Kars-Ardahan region. But even here, the Russians might doubt it is because of Turkish strength, because the Turks own maps will show they lost all their own southern Arab provinces.

 

[WolfBear]

There is a wee little problem with this argument being credible to the 1914 Russians. The only people dispensing the 'future history knowledge' that the Great War would be disastrous and empire-ending, and that Ottoman blockage of straits significantly helped make it so, would be the Turks, who the Russians would see as having very self-interested in motives in saying that is the future whether it is true or not. The one physical manifestation showing to the Russians showing that they did poorly in the future would simply be the fact that Turkey suddenly controls a future Kars-Ardahan region. But even here, the Russians might doubt it is because of Turkish strength, because the Turks own maps will show they lost all their own southern Arab provinces.

So, Russia might conclude that it needs to do a better job shoring up the home front in any future Great War?

 

[Buba]

Are you saying Turkey would end up completely helpless, at least after expending its existing 1924 ammo and fuel stocks? Or that it would have to down-tech after doing so, and therefore be nothing special in terms of weapons?

Could be defenceless if cannot make brass cartridges, primers, smokeless power on its own. Hardcore autarky. once stocks are gun it is back to blackpowder ...

 

[raharris1973]

Could be defenceless if cannot make brass cartridges, primers, smokeless power on its own. Hardcore autarky. once stocks are gun it is back to blackpowder ...

Hmm, I suspect the chemical recipes, and machinery for small arms ammo, and possibly for light artillery ammo of 1900-1914 standard would be available in Istanbul and multiple Anatolian cities. I don't know about all the precursor raw materials or intermediate manufactured chemicals being available and known within the boundaries of the Republic or OE. Or the Turks knowing exactly what to see to by abroad, or if any intermediate chemicals or compounds were uninvented yet. I would think they had some factories for smokeless powder ammo in the republic and knew the recipe, but don't know if went down to elements 'from scratch'.

Assuming the Turkish Republic can fight, bluff, gracefully downtech, manufacture or economize long enough to keep a defensive edge and hold the imperial boundaries, I wonder if Ataturk in the 1824 scenario or especially the 1874 scenario might be inclined to apply any of his favorite techniques from the 20th century, like population exchanges. For example, trying to impose after any successful war with Russia an exchange where Russia excepts Orthodox (and other) Christian populations and Slavs from Balkan and Caucasian areas and the OE takes in Turkic (and Tatar and Circassian)-speaking Islamic peoples from the Russian territories to 'Turkey' the OE's territories more.

 

[WolfBear]

Assuming the Turkish Republic can fight, bluff, gracefully downtech, manufacture or economize long enough to keep a defensive edge and hold the imperial boundaries, I wonder if Ataturk in the 1824 scenario or especially the 1874 scenario might be inclined to apply any of his favorite techniques from the 20th century, like population exchanges. For example, trying to impose after any successful war with Russia an exchange where Russia excepts Orthodox (and other) Christian populations and Slavs from Balkan and Caucasian areas and the OE takes in Turkic (and Tatar and Circassian)-speaking Islamic peoples from the Russian territories to 'Turkey' the OE's territories more.

Would the Turks also be interested in getting Crimea back after winning the Battle of Crimea River against Russia?

 

[Agent23]

Genocides, that is what.

 

[WolfBear]

Genocides, that is what.

Any chance that the Turks make a move on Azerbaijan due to its oil and the common Turkic ties there?

 

[Agent23]

Any chance that the Turks make a move on Azerbaijan due to its oil and the common Turkic ties there?

I think they will be too busy killing off Slavs, Greeks and Arabs and Armenians to focus on that.

Besides, Arab oil is there for the taking, and arguably it will be easier for them to take control of it and secure it than Azerbaijan.

 

[WolfBear]

I think they will be too busy killing off Slavs, Greeks and Arabs and Armenians to focus on that.

Besides, Arab oil is there for the taking, and arguably it will be easier for them to take control of it and secure it than Azerbaijan.

So, conquering what is now Saudi Arabia, then?

 

[Buba]

Besides, Arab oil is there for the taking, and arguably it will be easier for them to take control of it and secure it than Azerbaijan.

Well, it is under DT Ottoman control already ...
And 1924 Turks have a RR to Nusaybin, relatively close to Mosul. And with much easier terrain between the railhead and the oilfields than between Kars and Baku.

EDIT:
Any railroad extensions would have to be made with rails taken from dismantled lines and/or sidings. I very much doubt 1924 Turkey having rail making (not to mention locos and other rolling stock) capacity. But give it 10-15 years and they should have some dumbed down versions in artisanal production ...