raharris1973
Well-known member
What if the Soviets invade Turkey and seize the straits as an adjunct to their 1944 Balkans campaign?
I am imagining that the Soviets were finding the Turkish straits far closer to powerful combat forces of their own in the late stages of WWII than in any stages of WWI or many other points of Russian history, and Stalin could have found it tempting, while occupying Bulgaria in strength, to cross the border and seize the Turkish straits as well.
The Soviets declared war on Bulgaria and invaded it in September 1944, achieving almost instant capitulation. I imagine the Soviet combined ground, air and naval operation to seize the straits, and probably the Kars border region of northeastern Turkey, could be feasibly set up and well-timed for middle or late December 1944, and combined with a Declaration of War, based on supposed hostile Turkish intent, alleged past Turkish unneutral behavior, and hostile troop movements on the border during earlier dangerous points during the Great Patriotic War. [similar to justifications used in declaring war against Bulgaria, and Japan, who had not declared war on the USSR].
A December date would have allowed movement and concentration of Black Sea fleet support, troop echelons and airpower in Bulgaria and the Caucasus, to be able to execute a quick grab of Thrace, Constantinople, the Asian side of the sea of Marmara, Turkey's Aegean islands, and Kars. Politically, this is after the settlement of the western and Soviet occupation zones in Germany in London in September. And after the Balkan 'percentages' agreement in October 1944, which notably - did not address Turkey. It is also after FDR's reelection, and it at a moment where the inevitable bad PR and blowback the Soviets will face in the west is somewhat diluted by the recent British suppression of the Greek Communists being roundly criticized in the US press. It also after nearly all the year's Lend-Lease has been delivered, including just about everything to be used in the January offensive the Soviets intend to use to sweep across Poland to the gates of Berlin, to hopefully break into the city early in the new year.
How long will and can the Turks fight for the territorities the Soviets are seizing and keep attempting counterattacks?
How will the western powers react to the Soviet fait accompli, and its thin and unconvincing explanation, while the Soviets also press full steam ahead against the Germans in Central Europe and Yugoslavia?
Do the Western Allies reshape any of their final operations for the defeat of the Nazis in Europe, terms of acceptance for Nazi surrenders, limit or terminate Lend Lease deliveries, or alter any of the stop lines they are aiming for in Europe?
In Yalta, will they still be meeting with the Soviets in person, and seeking their participation in the Pacific War, and offering Lend-Lease in support of that end, or now rethinking that whole idea of extending the partnership eastward?
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Theoretically, the Soviets could initiate action against Turkey even sooner, in late September or October. It would require more advance Soviet planning and preparation and staging of follow-on forces and naval forces, but it would also seem to flow more 'naturalistically' and accidentally from adjacent operations in Bulgaria. It leaves open a branch plan to even cross the border and exert some influence in northeastern Greece on behalf of ELAS if so desired.
Politically, it is riskier in that it leaves the Soviets appearing more unilaterally domineering than the British. It may also pose a risk to FDR's reelection and to Lend Lease supplies for the final Berlin campaign and for follow on caampaigns against Japan.
What happens if the Soviets hit Turkey on the way through Bulgaria in late September 1944?
What if they go one further, and don't agree to percentages or noninterference with the British in Greece, helping ELAS take over and arm up in northern Greece while passing through?
I am imagining that the Soviets were finding the Turkish straits far closer to powerful combat forces of their own in the late stages of WWII than in any stages of WWI or many other points of Russian history, and Stalin could have found it tempting, while occupying Bulgaria in strength, to cross the border and seize the Turkish straits as well.
The Soviets declared war on Bulgaria and invaded it in September 1944, achieving almost instant capitulation. I imagine the Soviet combined ground, air and naval operation to seize the straits, and probably the Kars border region of northeastern Turkey, could be feasibly set up and well-timed for middle or late December 1944, and combined with a Declaration of War, based on supposed hostile Turkish intent, alleged past Turkish unneutral behavior, and hostile troop movements on the border during earlier dangerous points during the Great Patriotic War. [similar to justifications used in declaring war against Bulgaria, and Japan, who had not declared war on the USSR].
A December date would have allowed movement and concentration of Black Sea fleet support, troop echelons and airpower in Bulgaria and the Caucasus, to be able to execute a quick grab of Thrace, Constantinople, the Asian side of the sea of Marmara, Turkey's Aegean islands, and Kars. Politically, this is after the settlement of the western and Soviet occupation zones in Germany in London in September. And after the Balkan 'percentages' agreement in October 1944, which notably - did not address Turkey. It is also after FDR's reelection, and it at a moment where the inevitable bad PR and blowback the Soviets will face in the west is somewhat diluted by the recent British suppression of the Greek Communists being roundly criticized in the US press. It also after nearly all the year's Lend-Lease has been delivered, including just about everything to be used in the January offensive the Soviets intend to use to sweep across Poland to the gates of Berlin, to hopefully break into the city early in the new year.
How long will and can the Turks fight for the territorities the Soviets are seizing and keep attempting counterattacks?
How will the western powers react to the Soviet fait accompli, and its thin and unconvincing explanation, while the Soviets also press full steam ahead against the Germans in Central Europe and Yugoslavia?
Do the Western Allies reshape any of their final operations for the defeat of the Nazis in Europe, terms of acceptance for Nazi surrenders, limit or terminate Lend Lease deliveries, or alter any of the stop lines they are aiming for in Europe?
In Yalta, will they still be meeting with the Soviets in person, and seeking their participation in the Pacific War, and offering Lend-Lease in support of that end, or now rethinking that whole idea of extending the partnership eastward?
---
Theoretically, the Soviets could initiate action against Turkey even sooner, in late September or October. It would require more advance Soviet planning and preparation and staging of follow-on forces and naval forces, but it would also seem to flow more 'naturalistically' and accidentally from adjacent operations in Bulgaria. It leaves open a branch plan to even cross the border and exert some influence in northeastern Greece on behalf of ELAS if so desired.
Politically, it is riskier in that it leaves the Soviets appearing more unilaterally domineering than the British. It may also pose a risk to FDR's reelection and to Lend Lease supplies for the final Berlin campaign and for follow on caampaigns against Japan.
What happens if the Soviets hit Turkey on the way through Bulgaria in late September 1944?
What if they go one further, and don't agree to percentages or noninterference with the British in Greece, helping ELAS take over and arm up in northern Greece while passing through?