What if Stalin just doesn't wanna go to war with Japan in August 1945 and sits it out?

raharris1973

Well-known member
What if Stalin just doesn't want to follow-through with going to war with Japan in August 1945, decides to sit it out, blaming 'technical difficulties' for not getting started when talking to the Americans, and starts focusing on peacetime rebuilding and reposturing.

One can argue participation in the war against Japan is all upside and pretty much no downside, but let's just say Stalin thinks differently. Nobody internally contradicts him and he gets his way. Debate over.

What is the range of plausible endgames for the Pacific War?

What are the odds of the Japanese surrendering anyway at the exact same time as OTL?

If the Japanese hold out additional weeks, how soon would the US drop the next atomic bomb? [We should not necessarily expect the third bomb to be automatic upon availability - after Nagasaki, Truman demanded he be consulted for express permission to drop the bomb, because he disliked the 'automatic' nature of the Nagasaki bomb non-decision. Of course, his post Nagasaki decision was in a context where the USSR had also joined the war.]

Assuming individual bomb strikes do not change the Japanese government's position, what is the maximum number of plausible additional weeks or months Japan could go without surrendering?

Could Japan still be un-surrendered in late October 1945/November 1945 with the US readying to execute invasion operations of any of the home islands?
What would the status of British Empire and Dominion operations in Southeast Asia be? Would French or Dutch forces have deployed to Southeast Asia? What about the state of Chinese Nationalist or Communist operations on the mainland, or possibly any American operations in collaboration with the former?

If USSR from August or VE Day relaxes its instructions to western Communist parties to oppose labor strikes, will labor stoppages in North America, Western Europe, and Australia become worse than they already were?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
I wonder if the US could bribe Stalin enough to change his mind on this. If not, though, then there's a very real chance that more nukes need to be dropped before Japan surrenders. I don't know if Japan will surrender before a US invasion of the Japanese home islands in this TL.
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
I wonder if the US could bribe Stalin enough to change his mind on this. If not, though, then there's a very real chance that more nukes need to be dropped before Japan surrenders. I don't know if Japan will surrender before a US invasion of the Japanese home islands in this TL.

Depending on what's going on with the war, how soon Washington thinks Japan may surrender, and what Washington's priorities for Asia are, if Americans come a bribing, Stalin can fairly ask: 'are you bribing me to get in?' to kill your enemies and end the war faster? Or "are you bribing me to say out?" to keep my mitts off treasured Asian territories?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Depending on what's going on with the war, how soon Washington thinks Japan may surrender, and what Washington's priorities for Asia are, if Americans come a bribing, Stalin can fairly ask: 'are you bribing me to get in?' to kill your enemies and end the war faster? Or "are you bribing me to say out?" to keep my mitts off treasured Asian territories?

If the US will offer Stalin money (and/or whatever else) to enter the war, how exactly would that be interpreted by him as a bribe to stay out of the war?
 

ATP

Well-known member
What if Stalin just doesn't want to follow-through with going to war with Japan in August 1945, decides to sit it out, blaming 'technical difficulties' for not getting started when talking to the Americans, and starts focusing on peacetime rebuilding and reposturing.

One can argue participation in the war against Japan is all upside and pretty much no downside, but let's just say Stalin thinks differently. Nobody internally contradicts him and he gets his way. Debate over.

What is the range of plausible endgames for the Pacific War?

What are the odds of the Japanese surrendering anyway at the exact same time as OTL?

If the Japanese hold out additional weeks, how soon would the US drop the next atomic bomb? [We should not necessarily expect the third bomb to be automatic upon availability - after Nagasaki, Truman demanded he be consulted for express permission to drop the bomb, because he disliked the 'automatic' nature of the Nagasaki bomb non-decision. Of course, his post Nagasaki decision was in a context where the USSR had also joined the war.]

Assuming individual bomb strikes do not change the Japanese government's position, what is the maximum number of plausible additional weeks or months Japan could go without surrendering?

Could Japan still be un-surrendered in late October 1945/November 1945 with the US readying to execute invasion operations of any of the home islands?
What would the status of British Empire and Dominion operations in Southeast Asia be? Would French or Dutch forces have deployed to Southeast Asia? What about the state of Chinese Nationalist or Communist operations on the mainland, or possibly any American operations in collaboration with the former?

If USSR from August or VE Day relaxes its instructions to western Communist parties to oppose labor strikes, will labor stoppages in North America, Western Europe, and Australia become worse than they already were?

I once read,that after Hiroshima best Japan scientist was ordered to copy A bomb in 6 months,becouse they could not hold longer.
Their answer was that not even 6 years would be enough - so Japan surrender.
On other hand,Igor Witkowski,polish writer who specialized in wunderwaffe,was sure that Japan navy had its own program using thorium from Korea which could made bomb in this time.
Problem is - he is now claiming that good aliens from Pleiads are caming to save us from USA lifestyle and Holy Mother,so....

But,let assume that Japan hold 3 months longer and get 3 bombs more.
What changed ?
They still have Kuriles,and dutch would hold Indonesia longer.No united commie China,too.

Better world,i would say.
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
If the US will offer Stalin money (and/or whatever else) to enter the war, how exactly would that be interpreted by him as a bribe to stay out of the war?

By late June, and certainly July and August 1945, some elements in the US government (I am pretty sure civilian, not military) were preferring the USSR *not* participate in the war against Japan and accordingly spread its influence in the Far East.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
By late June, and certainly July and August 1945, some elements in the US government (I am pretty sure civilian, not military) were preferring the USSR *not* participate in the war against Japan and accordingly spread its influence in the Far East.

Then the US would offer the USSR money NOT to enter the war rather than to enter the war.
 

ATP

Well-known member
By late June, and certainly July and August 1945, some elements in the US government (I am pretty sure civilian, not military) were preferring the USSR *not* participate in the war against Japan and accordingly spread its influence in the Far East.

Then,they could pretend that they cared about Poland freedom,and later say"listen,you could take Poland,but only if you do not attack Japan"
It could worked.
 

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