We are literally support for a possible war with North Korea. Our main fighting force is not on pen. We will provide Naval security for the rest of the world
Yes. Because the South Koreans signed a one-sided trade agreement to benefit the USA. Not to mention that North Korea is a mostly exhausted country clinging desperately to a handful of crude, nuclear armed ballistic missiles. Whose leader is desperately trying to find a way to revive his country before one of his crazed relatives murders him while he plots to murder the generals who demand he keep it Commie Cool.
That is a manageable situation. One that President Trump has managed pretty well, all things considered.
If Russia invaded Poland we would mobilize to stop it. There is no if and or buts about it. We will stay and work towards a peace, or until Russia leaves the country..
No, we won't.
Because the US public does not (at large) want a war with Russia. The only ones who want a return to escalation with Russia are globalists, who are hoping to use it to bring back free trade and return to the way things were between 1990 and 20016. The US public will torpedo any potential president who openly supports engaging in oversea wars. There's a reason why people like Pelosi, Warren, Schumer, Harris, Clinton, and Biden try and talk around the subject or insist that we'll use disposable allies to fight these geopolitical battles that the US public
lost interest in twelve years ago.
Russia will wait until it is certain the US will not act. Any nationalist President who gets into power (such as Trump) will choose not to act and instead treat Poland the same way the Europeans treated Ukraine. Which is to say, drop off some hardware, send some money, and start a hashtag wishing them good luck with their new Russian overlords.
I am talking more then because of the Us pulling from Free trade. I am looking at more then geo political and economical stuff. I am looking at what is overall going on.
This is what my discipline does.
The overall direction is that the USA will withdraw from free trade, creating various power vacuums across the world. It is happening and it's been happening since the Obama administration. Obama actually had Free Trade on life support. The few times that he actually tried to engage in preserving American power in the Middle East, he did so half-heartily with no troops on the ground, and it ended up blowing in his face time after time. Trump has done more than just change America's posture, he's gutted NATO, distanced himself from every Middle Eastern power except Israel, and effectively put China on notice.
The USA is pulling back. We have had almost nothing short of 20 years of bad experiences in interfering with other countries. Two entire American generations grew up as children with 9/11, the Middle Eastern Wars, and terrorist attacks as the result of interfering with other countries. All while they wallow in economic mediocrity.
It is a damn world problem. If Euro don't step up, we will have a repeat of World war 2, with them letting Russia take all the way to damn Germany. The US wont let that happen.
Putin's optimistic hope of hope is that he manages to take back half of Poland. Because Russia is not looking to restart the Cold War, but rather to make it easier to defend Russia. The European plain runs from France and into Russia. It expands like a cone, growing wider as you approach Russia. The most narrow point on the European plain is in Poland, between the mountains and the sea. The Russians have been invaded multiple times by France and Germany along the European plain. Their victory was impart due to strategic depth, the hellish cold of Russia, lots of Russians, and lots of vodka.
With the Russian ethnicity dying out, Russia does not have the troops that they need to secure Russia by sending wave after wave of their own men to wear down an invading force. And because Russia is entirely flat, that means that without numbers and military tech edge, the Russians cannot hope to retain their hold of the territory everyone acknowledges as theirs in 20 years.
They won't have enough scientists, engineers, and troops in 20 years to secure Russia's wide open borders in 10-20 years. Their best hope is to use the army they have now to expand into the most narrow regions in other states to prevent an invader. And believe it or not, their greatest fear is not Germany, France, Poland, or the United States. It's Turkey. That's part of why Russia is fucking around in Syria. It keeps the Turks focused on the Kurds and that means they're looking south, not North, East, and West.
Now, the natural response to this information is "why doesn't Russia just try and make a peace deal?". The answer is that the Russians doesn't trust the US. And for good reason. The Obama Administration gave support to Ukraine trying to join the EU, which forced Moscow to act to protect its only warm water port. That's not to mention all the minorities within their oh-so-cheery-state who would be more than happy to pay the Russians back for all the kindness of the past several centuries.
You have me here. This makes a lot of sense
Russia is really not playing around. Putin and the leadership know that if Russia does not find a way to slow their collapse, the entire country will shatter and they'll probably be devoured.
Is russia really that bad off?
Yes.
The Soviet collapse caused a massive healthcare and educational crises that was not addressed until after Putin came to power. Their most experienced and gifted engineers and scientists are all reaching the mortality rate. It's not that they're retiring; they're literally working themselves into the grave. Their population is inflicted with highly resistant HIV that has dealt a huge blow to the public. Attempts at encouraging growing birthrates have failed and now minorities are quickly catching up to ethnic Russians. The dropping birthrates in Europe and China will mean that soon even gas money won't keep Russia flush with cash. And that was before COVID-19 saw the Saudi's directly going after their energy market. And on top of that, now even the US is threatening to get in on the action.
Russia can defend itself now. But when they don't have enough engineers and scientists to keep their armor, jets, and ships moving and fighting, that will change. When their army is undermanned or filled with ethnic minorities who hate their commanders, that will change. When their gas money starts to run dry and the Russian state is no longer able to pay people, that will change. When the Turks to the south finally awaken from their 100 year long hiatus of being a major power, that will change. When Putin's body gives out on him, plunging the entire political oligarchy into chaos and infighting, that will change.
Russia is desperate. And that makes it far, far more dangerous in some ways than even then during the Cold War. Be thankful that Putin is as restrained as he is. He's worked to transform Turkey into an energy hub, has worked to use geo-economics to bring most of the former Soviet States under Russian influence, and would probably settle for a sort of Russian-led Eastern European bloc, so long as Russian troops protect the linchpin states from "the outside".
Should a war with US break out from China..Russia is gonna be heavily affected by it.
They will, objectively they will suffer in some way, most likely economically, but the geo-economic loss would be far offset by the new geo-strategic reality. Which is that the focus of the United States would shift from Russia's near-abroad to China. In other words, while Russia will objectively suffer more damage from the loss of Chinese business than the USA, the US would suffer a larger relative loss in geo-strategic mobility, because of the sheer size and power of China. Even if China lacks projection capabilities.
That means that the Russians can play more in Syria and distract the Turks. It means that if the Americans are worried about fighting a war on the Chinese coast, they are not going to be too eager to start a war against Russia in Eastern Europe. Especially when most Eastern European countries are economically, heavily reliant upon the Russians to begin with. Hell, Germany is addicted to Russian gas. That's why despite Russia's actions in Ukraine, the Germans have done very little about it. All their economic punishments were mostly symbolic.
I doubt Putin wants there to be a war between the US and China, but he would do everything in his power to exploit the situation.
