United States Trump 2nd Term - Planning and Beyond

[mrttao]

I know that, I’m just quoting the dude.

Yea. I saw the quote box. Just disagreeing with the person being quoted, not you.

 

[StormEagle]

Question is, when the riots go nationwide, will Trump use the insurrection act?

Edit:

Also, I feel the need to post this as well:

Make sure to give your prayers or at least well wishing thoughts for DJ.

 

[DarthOne]

Question is, when the riots go nationwide, will Trump use the insurrection act?

Will find out on the 14th, if not sooner. They are planning a nation-wide ‘protest’. They’re calling it ‘no king day’. And it’s being back by various NGOs.

Also, I feel the need to post this as well:

Make sure to give your prayers or at least well wishing thoughts for DJ.

Agreed.

 

[mrttao]

I am kinda feeling like trump is letting them run rampant instead of immediately crushing them so they feel emboldened. and then he is gonna call an insurrection after the nationwide riots.

Or maybe its just wishful thinking

 

[DarthOne]

I am kinda feeling like trump is letting them run rampant instead of immediately crushing them so they feel emboldened. and then he is gonna call an insurrection after the nationwide riots.

Or maybe its just wishful thinking

Time will tell.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Make sure to give your prayers or at least well wishing thoughts for DJ.

 

[Morphic Tide]

I am kinda feeling like trump is letting them run rampant instead of immediately crushing them so they feel emboldened. and then he is gonna call an insurrection after the nationwide riots.

Yeah, letting the nationwide riot wave start makes it very clearly a Federal issue and exposes a lot of the networks, so he could utterly dismantle the coordination with insurrection, RICO, and sedition charges.

 

[mrttao]

Yesterday:
>> Mayor of LA: Peaceful but fiery protests. Bricks of speech/peach.
> Reporter: border czar, what do you say to the above
> Border czar: we will investigate it and if any public official is aiding the riots they will be arrested

Today
>> Mayor of LA: Riots bad! Arrest the people throwing bricks and setting fires. this was ALWAYS my position. I am only in favor of the peaceful protests.

Kek. what a quick turnaround on her verbiage.

 

[Zachowon]

The 'anti-shipping missiles will obsolete carriers' hype has been going on for a long-ass time. It's nothing new, and it hasn't panned out in the past.

Further, US military technology for countering threats like cruise missiles has been steadily developing over the last 30 years, while Russian technology very nearly (but not completely) stagnated after the USSR collapsed, and the Chinese have only caught up with Russian technology in the last 10 years or so.

Cruise missiles are a completely known threat against ships, particular carriers. This is 1950's/60's technology originally, not something revolutionary or new. Sure, there have been developments along the way; missile-mounted penetration aids, sea-skimming missiles, and more, but counters for those have been developed along the way too. You're acting like 'the Chinese have anti-shipping missiles' means the carriers are guaranteed to get either sunk or forced out of theater, when that's far from the truth.

Even if we completely set aside issues of corruption and quality control, historically, communist countries produce shitty war machines compared to what the free world does. From the start of the Cold War, American/NATO machines tended to be better, though the gap was relatively narrow at the start, it got broader and broader as time went on.

Is it possible China will buck that trend? In theory, yes?

Is it likely? Given that all the factors that made Soviet hardware inferior to western hardware are still in play, it is not likely at all.


In the first place, we know for a fact that US/NATO missile defense technology is better. There's no clear indication that the Chinese have meaningfully capable missile-interception technology at all.

We know that at a minimum, the J-20 is inferior in stealth capability to the F-22 and F-35, due to its known size and shape. We also know they've had very serious other issues, such as making engines good enough to have it perform adequately, much less give those engines any meaningful length of service life.

We know that the Chinese have struggled to develop the skills for competently conducting carrier launch and recovery operations, something the US is the undisputed master of.

We know that US/NATO military hardware hilariously outperformed Russian military hardware in Ukraine, especially in missile and air defense technology. Given China has struggled to meet the quality of Russia in this, much less surpass it, this is strongly indicative. It is possible their most recent generation of hardware exceeds Russian hardware, but even if that is the case, it's extremely unlikely it does so by a large enough margin to catch up with US/NATO hardware.

We know that the Chinese Navy has not conducted combat operations in something like 40 years. The same is true of their air force, and mostly so for their army.

I could go on, but I'll leave it here for now.

Almost all indicators are that if the PLAN/PLAAF and the USN/USAF come into conflict, it will most likely be a crushing defeat for the Chinese. Your point about relative build capacity is arguably the only indicator in China's favor, and it isn't an irrelevant indicator, but it is not remotely sufficient by itself.


In short, no, the Chinese navy and air force are not in a position to dethrone the US military, not through anything but blithering incompetence on the part of US leadership. Which, granted, is not out of the question given the continuing existence of the Democrat Party, but the corruption and incompetence of the CCP is far more likely to be a deciding factor.


The fact that you think the Houthis drove the USN out of the Red Sea really shows how out of touch with reality on the subject you are.

Eh, China tech so far seems more competent then Russian just based off thier performance by Pakistan

 

[Cherico]

Yesterday:
>> Mayor of LA: Peaceful but fiery protests. Bricks of speech/peach.
> Reporter: border czar, what do you say to the above
> Border czar: we will investigate it and if any public official is aiding the riots they will be arrested

Today
>> Mayor of LA: Riots bad! Arrest the people throwing bricks and setting fires. this was ALWAYS my position. I am only in favor of the peaceful protests.

Kek. what a quick turnaround on her verbiage.

Apply conquences and a lot of bad behavior stops.

 

[DarthOne]

Apply conquences and a lot of bad behavior stops.

She’s not in a jail cell awaiting trial so she’s not had enough consequences

 

[Cherico]

She’s not in a jail cell awaiting trial so she’s not had enough consequences

That would be a damned fine day.

 

[Abhorsen]

The problem with the BBB is that it still massively raises the deficit, and nowhere near enough illegals will be deported. $5T deficit, and I bet net deports under Trump 2 are <1M.

The US has 2 existential problems right now: immigration and deficit. I get putting off one to solve another. But the BBB doesn't even solve 1 of them.

Better idea: 10k to any illegal that self deports, and legalize bounty hunting at 2k/person for any illegal that is sent to an ICE facility (1k at delivery, 1k at deportation). That's about 120B if every illegal self deports.

 

[mrttao]

The problem with the BBB is that it still massively raises the deficit, and nowhere near enough illegals will be deported. $5T deficit, and I bet net deports under Trump 2 are <1M.

The US has 2 existential problems right now: immigration and deficit. I get putting off one to solve another. But the BBB doesn't even solve 1 of them.

Better idea: 10k to any illegal that self deports, and legalize bounty hunting at 2k/person for any illegal that is sent to an ICE facility (1k at delivery, 1k at deportation). That's about 120B if every illegal self deports.

Needs harsher punishments to illegals getting caught.
And very harsh punishments to employers who do not verify ID of their employees.

 

[Morphic Tide]

The problem with the BBB is that it still massively raises the deficit

The budget assigned is assuming rather high estimates so that the projects don't need emergency spending to keep going, much larger sections of the spending than usual are facultative to taxable productivity, we already have a few cases of the structural reforms to spending causing departments to fall under their allocation, and if the heathcare reform sticks Medicare spending will drop off drastically.

and nowhere near enough illegals will be deported.

You don't need 100% hard deportations when you turn off the pull factors. Those who leave because of this will rarely be reported, leaving us working with very messy estimates until the next census as to how well the policy is working.

But the BBB doesn't even solve 1 of them.

Both the immigration and budget improvements are incremental and mostly revolve around second order and higher effects, hard data won't exist for years but all signs point towards less of a problem than staying the course. It may be offputting to your delusions of society working without a Big Guy On Top that the system isn't simply being burned down, but the MAGA base are reformists rather than revolutionaries and reform is a slow thing that the Big Beautiful Bill may just buy enough time to finish.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

You don't need 100% hard deportations when you turn off the pull factors. Those who leave because of this will rarely be reported, leaving us working with very messy estimates until the next census as to how well the policy is working.

Pretty much. The gravy train drying up and the vice slowly being tightened will be more than enough incentive for millions of them to bugger off of their own accord.

 

[Abhorsen]

Needs harsher punishments to illegals getting caught.
And very harsh punishments to employers who do not verify ID of their employees.

You don't need harsher punishments. You need faster punishments that any can enforce. Make it so that there's public bounties, and this problem gets solved quickly. Trying for centralized control won't go fast enough.

It shouldn't be illegal for a private citizen to grab an illegal immigrant, and upon verification, then move them out of the country. Just have a quadruple penalty for failure, paid by the bounty hunter to the wrong bounty.

The budget assigned is assuming rather high estimates so that the projects don't need emergency spending to keep going, much larger sections of the spending than usual are facultative to taxable productivity, we already have a few cases of the structural reforms to spending causing departments to fall under their allocation, and if the heathcare reform sticks Medicare spending will drop off drastically.

No, it isn't, because most of the structural reforms aren't encoded into law.

You don't need 100% hard deportations when you turn off the pull factors. Those who leave because of this will rarely be reported, leaving us working with very messy estimates until the next census as to how well the policy is working.

Trump isn't even going to hit 10% (1.2M), let alone 100% (12M).

Both the immigration and budget improvements are incremental and mostly revolve around second order and higher effects, hard data won't exist for years but all signs point towards less of a problem than staying the course. It may be offputting to your delusions of society working without a Big Guy On Top that the system isn't simply being burned down, but the MAGA base are reformists rather than revolutionaries and reform is a slow thing that the Big Beautiful Bill may just buy enough time to finish.

1st) this goes backwards on the budget (crucially on SALT and not codifying DOGE), while 2nd) massively overpaying for a minor increase in ICE. Currently, I expect 1M immigrants at best will be deported, for a 5T deficit. Do you see the problem there? that's about 5M/immigrant to deport.

 

[Bacle]

Timely reminder that the Dems will attempt to jail anyone who worked for Trump or supported Trump, if they get back into power in 3.5 years.

The GOP needs to realize the old rules aren't coming back, and the Dems will only double down on their stupidity and unConsitutional actions, the second they get power again.

The GOP needs to stay in power, long term, for the sake of the survival of the people that have supported or worked for Trump, and pre-emptive pardons at the end of Trump's term might be necessary to reign in some of the Dems stupider ideas, if they retake the White House in 2028.

We no longer live in a united country, red states/areas and blue states/areas are not countrymen, just enemies that share external international borders.

Edit: Reminder the Dems started the first American Civil War over their ability to keep slaves, so the Dems starting the next American Civil War over their new slaves is wholly in character.

 

[Ixian]

Eh, China tech so far seems more competent then Russian just based off thier performance by Pakistan

I got hands on time to examine Chinese naval tech while active duty in the US Navy.

It's junk, primitive, and decades behind the US. Even the Russian naval tech was better, and that is a low bar to fail.

 

[SoliFortissimi]

Eh, China tech so far seems more competent then Russian just based off thier performance by Pakistan

Against India, a country that's an international joke for how bad it is with tech.