This isnt about drones. China has actual antishipping missiles capable of hitting carriers and lots of them. You were unable to stop Yemen from driving you out of the red sea and damaging the Truman. You wont stop the chinese from inflicting considerable damage
The 'anti-shipping missiles will obsolete carriers' hype has been going on for a long-ass time. It's nothing new, and it hasn't panned out in the past.
Further, US military technology for
countering threats like cruise missiles has been steadily developing over the last 30 years, while Russian technology very nearly (but not
completely) stagnated after the USSR collapsed, and the Chinese have only
caught up with Russian technology in the last 10 years or so.
Cruise missiles are a completely known threat against ships, particular carriers. This is 1950's/60's technology originally, not something revolutionary or new. Sure, there have been developments along the way; missile-mounted penetration aids, sea-skimming missiles, and more, but counters for those have been developed along the way too. You're acting like 'the Chinese have anti-shipping missiles' means the carriers are guaranteed to get either sunk or forced out of theater, when that's far from the truth.
Even if we completely set aside issues of corruption and quality control, historically, communist countries produce shitty war machines compared to what the free world does. From the start of the Cold War, American/NATO machines tended to be better, though the gap was relatively narrow at the start, it got broader and broader as time went on.
Is it possible China will buck that trend? In theory, yes?
Is it
likely? Given that all the factors that made Soviet hardware inferior to western hardware are still in play, it is not likely
at all.
In the first place, we
know for a fact that US/NATO missile defense technology is better. There's no clear indication that the Chinese have meaningfully capable missile-interception technology at all.
We
know that at a minimum, the J-20 is inferior in stealth capability to the F-22 and F-35, due to its known size and shape. We also know they've had very serious other issues, such as making engines good enough to have it perform adequately, much less give those engines any meaningful length of service life.
We
know that the Chinese have struggled to develop the skills for competently conducting carrier launch and recovery operations, something the US is the undisputed master of.
We
know that US/NATO military hardware
hilariously outperformed Russian military hardware in Ukraine,
especially in missile and air defense technology. Given China has struggled to meet the quality of Russia in this, much less surpass it, this is strongly indicative. It is
possible their most recent generation of hardware exceeds Russian hardware, but even if that is the case, it's extremely unlikely it does so by a large enough margin to catch up with US/NATO hardware.
We
know that the Chinese Navy has not conducted combat operations in something like 40 years. The same is true of their air force, and
mostly so for their army.
I could go on, but I'll leave it here for now.
Almost all indicators are that if the PLAN/PLAAF and the USN/USAF come into conflict, it will most likely be a crushing defeat for the Chinese. Your point about relative build capacity is arguably the
only indicator in China's favor, and it isn't an
irrelevant indicator, but it is not remotely sufficient by itself.
In short, no, the Chinese navy and air force are not in a position to dethrone the US military, not through anything but blithering incompetence on the part of US leadership. Which, granted, is not out of the question given the continuing existence of the Democrat Party, but the corruption and incompetence of the CCP is
far more likely to be a deciding factor.
The fact that you think the Houthis drove the USN out of the Red Sea really shows how out of touch with reality on the subject you are.