What if the Union wins the First Battle of Bull Run in 1861 at the start of the American Civil War? What would the effects of this have been? Just how much shorter would the ACW have been and how exactly would this have affected the post-war settlement and aftermath?
Any thoughts on this,
@History Learner @Skallagrim @Circle of Willis?
For reference:
Firstly, despite what Wikipedia insists, the proper name of the battle is the First Battle of Manassas. That's literally what everyone who has real weight on the matter calls it, from the name of the actual historical site under US Government maintenance to the traditional naming convention of battles in the US Civil War, to the local and state governments that are involved with the battlefield.
I know, I grew up in Manassas. Ever single sign, every historical marker, the name on the Federal Park call it "Manassas National Battlefield Park" and refer to the battles as First and Second Manassas.
This fucking insistence by Wikipedia to call it "Bull Run" and their claim that this is the "more common name" (when it actually isn't by their own standards and the one time it appeared so was due to purposeful search manipulation on the clique's part) is one of the most obvious examples of Wikipedia's weaponized rule system and capture by cliques over being a site run honestly under its supposed ideals.
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Sorry, that's been a pet peeve of mine with Wikipedia going on 20 years now and one of the major reasons I refuse to ever give them money or even take them seriously.
That said, a Union victory at First Manassas would be hard to follow up. Even assuming the Union's army managed to be organized, marching from Manassas to Richmond in time to capture it and the Confederate government is unlikely. Manassas is merely 30 miles from Washington DC, while it's close to 100 miles from Richmond. Further there's significant rivers between Manassas and Richmond, most importantly the Rappahannock River and the city of Fredericksburg, which historically served as a major hurdle on any advance towards Richmond, and is about at the halfway point between Manassas and Richmond.
So a more likely scenario on a Union victory at First Manassas would be a Confederate retreat and likely rally at Fredericksburg, where they likely would be able to stop the advance with more fresh troops and greater urgency.
This actually ends up not derailing the Civil War as much as you might think, as the northern Virginia counties of Prince William, Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria were under Union occupation for most of the Civil War anyway, as the Confederacy actually put their main defensive lines not at the Potomac River, but farther south, leaving much of northern Virginia under occupation while allowing Confederate Partisans, such as Mosby, free reign to disrupt as much as they could in the region. This just turns that timetable up a little bit.
The other possibility is that a Confederate loss at Manassas might actually speed up when Lee takes over the Army of Northern Virginia. As it originally stood, he was not appointed overall commander until 1862 as the early victories by the Confederacy at Manassas led them to believe the Union wasn't as much of a threat and enabled Gen. Joseph Johnston to maintain his position. It wasn't until the Peninsula Campaign and Johnston's continued losses to McClellan where McClellan managed to practically get to Richmond as well as Johnston getting injured that Lee was given command and proceeded to push McClellan off the peninsula in the Seven Days Battles and then turned north and Pope all the way back to DC at Second Manassas.
The logistics to turn a Union victory at First Manassas to an early end of the Civil War I just don't see being in the cards. There's to much distance between Manassas and Richmond, with to many good locations for the Confederates to rally and hold them off.
