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Martian Grand Strategy
The Martians are intelligent, rational, thinking creatures. They saw their world cooling and had a definitive plan to deal with it, one that probably involved a civilisational investment of enormous resources. They did not leave anything to chance, either, instead engaging in the simultaneous attempt to effect lodgements on Venus and Earth. The real skill of the Martians is considerably greater, however. They did not simply walk around killing everything.
This is not a story of human helplessness, and it is not strictly a colonial inversion, either. Wells was a futurist and he made some astonishingly good predictions about where technology was going -- and many predictions in the War of the Worlds have been ignored to fixate on the traditional narrative of human helplessness, on the idea of reducing humanity to insignificance.
When we really look at the story, however, what we actually see is that the Martians were winning because they were executing a disciplined operational plan to get inside of humanity's decision cycle or OODA loop. Britain played the part of Iraq, the Martians the United States, a hundred years before that war happened. One could also make comparisons to Blitzkrieg, but this is something more, because it's the execution of total strategic dominance rather than simply battlefield dominance.
What is a rail junction? Nothing less than a concentration of railway routes from which the re-routing of trains may occur, sometimes with major rail facilities for re-marshalling. These were facilities targeted by nuclear weapons during the Cold War; in the 1890s they are even more critical and even more important.
Remember that.
Now as I have explained in covering the naval side, these guns are capable of destroying the Martians. What is a ninety-five ton gun? Probably spare 16.25in/30cal barrels with cocoa powder for their charges. These guns would take days to emplace. The heavy artillery is moving slowly on special trains. Does it ever reach London to be destroyed? absolutely not. Wells' descriptions of the subsequent battles that lead to the Martian conquest of London continue to explicitly reference field batteries. Heavy guns that could have strengthened a perimeter by firing at range and destroying Martians with concussion of near misses never once come into action--because the Martians, from the very first, have planned and are executing contingencies for the destruction of a civilisation they can envision.
They are destroying communications facilities and transportation facilities. It is noted that the canals are even no longer being worked west of London, forcing holidayers who don't realise the severity of events back to the city. Any form of transportation is being eliminated.
And yet the field guns are still able to disable a Martian, just not permanently:
Instead, the Martians effectively combine the use of the heat ray and the black smoke to suppress and then destroy revealed batteries. They have already hamstrung the carriage of heavy guns to London; now they use their technical advantages to achieve battlefield dominance. They conduct the attack too rapidly for the batteries of heavy guns and for other defences to be prepared. In doing so, they have gotten inside of the British OODA.
Wells then makes this explicit:
But it seems that Britain being an island was just right. The objective of the first landing was not to destroy humanity, and indeed it could not, for it was much too small. The objective was to establish a base which could be defended against counterattack while at the same time providing a large enough habitat and secure territory from which to build up a full strength invasion force. Britain was Okinawa in preparation for Downfall.
That was the Martian objective. And that is why the military situation shows both his unique genius as a futurist and also how humanity could, in fact, have fought back, because in the time before the Martians had built up in Britain to conquer the rest of the world, the critical gas-masks and protective gear against the black smoke could have gone a long way to equalise the contest.
Or could it have?
The Martians understood the OODA loop extremely well, which brings us to:
Using the black smoke to strategic bomb with chemical weapons the major industrial cities of continental Europe to disrupt defensive preparations.
Whether or not it would have succeeded, though, is up to the interpretation of the reader.
The Martians are intelligent, rational, thinking creatures. They saw their world cooling and had a definitive plan to deal with it, one that probably involved a civilisational investment of enormous resources. They did not leave anything to chance, either, instead engaging in the simultaneous attempt to effect lodgements on Venus and Earth. The real skill of the Martians is considerably greater, however. They did not simply walk around killing everything.
This is not a story of human helplessness, and it is not strictly a colonial inversion, either. Wells was a futurist and he made some astonishingly good predictions about where technology was going -- and many predictions in the War of the Worlds have been ignored to fixate on the traditional narrative of human helplessness, on the idea of reducing humanity to insignificance.
When we really look at the story, however, what we actually see is that the Martians were winning because they were executing a disciplined operational plan to get inside of humanity's decision cycle or OODA loop. Britain played the part of Iraq, the Martians the United States, a hundred years before that war happened. One could also make comparisons to Blitzkrieg, but this is something more, because it's the execution of total strategic dominance rather than simply battlefield dominance.
The train service was now very much disorganised. After destroying the initial cordon, the activity of the Martians is vividly demonstrated: Information is no longer available. Trains from the Southwest Company are not arriving. The junction between Woking and Byfleet has been cut. Indeed, many junctions have been cut. A litany of wrecked rail junctions litters the book from the beginning to the end, where out of work people support the customary navvies in building temporary routings to send trains across at Clapham Junction.In London, also, on Saturday night there was a thunderstorm, and my brother reached Waterloo in a cab. On the platform from which the midnight train usually starts he learned, after some waiting, that an accident prevented trains from reaching Woking that night. The nature of the accident he could not ascertain; indeed, the railway authorities did not clearly know at that time. There was very little excitement in the station, as the officials, failing to realise that anything further than a breakdown between Byfleet and Woking junction had occurred, were running the theatre trains which usually passed through Woking round by Virginia Water or Guildford. They were busy making the necessary arrangements to alter the route of the Southampton and Portsmouth Sunday League excursions. A nocturnal newspaper reporter, mistaking my brother for the traffic manager, to whom he bears a slight resemblance, waylaid and tried to interview him. Few people, excepting the railway officials, connected the breakdown with the Martians.
I have read, in another account of these events, that on Sunday morning "all London was electrified by the news from Woking." As a matter of fact, there was nothing to justify that very extravagant phrase. Plenty of Londoners did not hear of the Martians until the panic of Monday morning. Those who did took some time to realise all that the hastily worded telegrams in the Sunday papers conveyed. The majority of people in London do not read Sunday papers.
The habit of personal security, moreover, is so deeply fixed in the Londoner's mind, and startling intelligence so much a matter of course in the papers, that they could read without any personal tremors: "About seven o'clock last night the Martians came out of the cylinder, and, moving about under an armour of metallic shields, have completely wrecked Woking station with the adjacent houses, and massacred an entire battalion of the Cardigan Regiment. No details are known. Maxims have been absolutely useless against their armour; the field guns have been disabled by them. Flying hussars have been galloping into Chertsey. The Martians appear to be moving slowly towards Chertsey or Windsor. Great anxiety prevails in West Surrey, and earthworks are being thrown up to check the advance Londonward." That was how the Sunday Sun put it, and a clever and remarkably prompt "handbook" article in the Referee compared the affair to a menagerie suddenly let loose in a village.
No one in London knew positively of the nature of the armoured Martians, and there was still a fixed idea that these monsters must be sluggish: "crawling," "creeping painfully"--such expressions occurred in almost all the earlier reports. None of the telegrams could have been written by an eyewitness of their advance. The Sunday papers printed separate editions as further news came to hand, some even in default of it. But there was practically nothing more to tell people until late in the afternoon, when the authorities gave the press agencies the news in their possession. It was stated that the people of Walton and Weybridge, and all the district were pouring along the roads Londonward, and that was all.
My brother went to church at the Foundling Hospital in the morning, still in ignorance of what had happened on the previous night. There he heard allusions made to the invasion, and a special prayer for peace. Coming out, he bought a Referee. He became alarmed at the news in this, and went again to Waterloo station to find out if communication were restored. The omnibuses, carriages, cyclists, and innumerable people walking in their best clothes seemed scarcely affected by the strange intelligence that the news venders were disseminating. People were interested, or, if alarmed, alarmed only on account of the local residents. At the station he heard for the first time that the Windsor and Chertsey lines were now interrupted. The porters told him that several remarkable telegrams had been received in the morning from Byfleet and Chertsey stations, but that these had abruptly ceased. My brother could get very little precise detail out of them.
"There's fighting going on about Weybridge" was the extent of their information.
The train service was now very much disorganised. Quite a number of people who had been expecting friends from places on the South-Western network were standing about the station. One grey-headed old gentleman came and abused the South-Western Company bitterly to my brother. "It wants showing up," he said.
One or two trains came in from Richmond, Putney, and Kingston, containing people who had gone out for a day's boating and found the locks closed and a feeling of panic in the air. A man in a blue and white blazer addressed my brother, full of strange tidings.
"There's hosts of people driving into Kingston in traps and carts and things, with boxes of valuables and all that," he said. "They come from Molesey and Weybridge and Walton, and they say there's been guns heard at Chertsey, heavy firing, and that mounted soldiers have told them to get off at once because the Martians are coming. We heard guns firing at Hampton Court station, but we thought it was thunder. What the dickens does it all mean? The Martians can't get out of their pit, can they?"
What is a rail junction? Nothing less than a concentration of railway routes from which the re-routing of trains may occur, sometimes with major rail facilities for re-marshalling. These were facilities targeted by nuclear weapons during the Cold War; in the 1890s they are even more critical and even more important.
Remember that.
So the government is quickly responding. Guns are in rapid transit, including ninety-five tons from the Woolwich arsenal. The Government issues the regular assurances that the situation is under control. The Martians appear to retreat, but at the Battle of Shepperton that is referenced, they actually destroyed a powder works, telegraph wires, railway; they were still succeeding in their objectives.They were described as "vast spiderlike machines, nearly a hundred feet high, capable of the speed of an express train, and able to shoot out a beam of intense heat." Masked batteries, chiefly of field guns, had been planted in the country about Horsell Common, and especially between the Woking district and London. Five of the machines had been seen moving towards the Thames, and one, by a happy chance, had been destroyed. In the other cases the shells had missed, and the batteries had been at once annihilated by the Heat-Rays. Heavy losses of soldiers were mentioned, but the tone of the dispatch was optimistic.
The Martians had been repulsed; they were not invulnerable. They had retreated to their triangle of cylinders again, in the circle about Woking. Signallers with heliographs were pushing forward upon them from all sides. Guns were in rapid transit from Windsor, Portsmouth, Aldershot, Woolwich--even from the north; among others, long wire-guns of ninety-five tons from Woolwich. Altogether one hundred and sixteen were in position or being hastily placed, chiefly covering London. Never before in England had there been such a vast or rapid concentration of military material.
Any further cylinders that fell, it was hoped, could be destroyed at once by high explosives, which were being rapidly manufactured and distributed. No doubt, ran the report, the situation was of the strangest and gravest description, but the public was exhorted to avoid and discourage panic. No doubt the Martians were strange and terrible in the extreme, but at the outside there could not be more than twenty of them against our millions.
Now as I have explained in covering the naval side, these guns are capable of destroying the Martians. What is a ninety-five ton gun? Probably spare 16.25in/30cal barrels with cocoa powder for their charges. These guns would take days to emplace. The heavy artillery is moving slowly on special trains. Does it ever reach London to be destroyed? absolutely not. Wells' descriptions of the subsequent battles that lead to the Martian conquest of London continue to explicitly reference field batteries. Heavy guns that could have strengthened a perimeter by firing at range and destroying Martians with concussion of near misses never once come into action--because the Martians, from the very first, have planned and are executing contingencies for the destruction of a civilisation they can envision.
They are destroying communications facilities and transportation facilities. It is noted that the canals are even no longer being worked west of London, forcing holidayers who don't realise the severity of events back to the city. Any form of transportation is being eliminated.
And yet the field guns are still able to disable a Martian, just not permanently:
Without prompt support a second Martian would have been destroyed by field guns. What follows, of course, is the use of the Black Smoke. Poison gas clears the remaining batteries. But it might not have been so easy; guns capable of long-range fire well placed with a favourable prevailing wind could have held them off for at least a while.The St. George's Hill men, however, were better led or of a better mettle. Hidden by a pine wood as they were, they seem to have been quite unsuspected by the Martian nearest to them. They laid their guns as deliberately as if they had been on parade, and fired at about a thousand yards' range.
The shells flashed all round him, and he was seen to advance a few paces, stagger, and go down. Everybody yelled together, and the guns were reloaded in frantic haste. The overthrown Martian set up a prolonged ululation, and immediately a second glittering giant, answering him, appeared over the trees to the south. It would seem that a leg of the tripod had been smashed by one of the shells. The whole of the second volley flew wide of the Martian on the ground, and, simultaneously, both his companions brought their Heat-Rays to bear on the battery. The ammunition blew up, the pine trees all about the guns flashed into fire, and only one or two of the men who were already running over the crest of the hill escaped.
Instead, the Martians effectively combine the use of the heat ray and the black smoke to suppress and then destroy revealed batteries. They have already hamstrung the carriage of heavy guns to London; now they use their technical advantages to achieve battlefield dominance. They conduct the attack too rapidly for the batteries of heavy guns and for other defences to be prepared. In doing so, they have gotten inside of the British OODA.
In short, modern military tactics have been used to destroy morale, coordination, and supply, and thus make resistance impossible. Their technology is not profoundly overwhelming. What is profoundly overwhelming, and profoundly unique about Wells' writing, is that the Martian technology, only slightly superiour to that of the British, is unstoppable because it is being combined with modern military tactics that disrupt and demoralise the ability of the defenders to respond to the offensive.So, setting about it as methodically as men might smoke out a wasps' nest, the Martians spread this strange stifling vapour over the Londonward country. The horns of the crescent slowly moved apart, until at last they formed a line from Hanwell to Coombe and Malden. All night through their destructive tubes advanced. Never once, after the Martian at St. George's Hill was brought down, did they give the artillery the ghost of a chance against them. Wherever there was a possibility of guns being laid for them unseen, a fresh canister of the black vapour was discharged, and where the guns were openly displayed the Heat-Ray was brought to bear.
By midnight the blazing trees along the slopes of Richmond Park and the glare of Kingston Hill threw their light upon a network of black smoke, blotting out the whole valley of the Thames and extending as far as the eye could reach. And through this two Martians slowly waded, and turned their hissing steam jets this way and that.
They were sparing of the Heat-Ray that night, either because they had but a limited supply of material for its production or because they did not wish to destroy the country but only to crush and overawe the opposition they had aroused. In the latter aim they certainly succeeded. Sunday night was the end of the organised opposition to their movements. After that no body of men would stand against them, so hopeless was the enterprise. Even the crews of the torpedo-boats and destroyers that had brought their quick-firers up the Thames refused to stop, mutinied, and went down again. The only offensive operation men ventured upon after that night was the preparation of mines and pitfalls, and even in that their energies were frantic and spasmodic.
One has to imagine, as well as one may, the fate of those batteries towards Esher, waiting so tensely in the twilight. Survivors there were none. One may picture the orderly expectation, the officers alert and watchful, the gunners ready, the ammunition piled to hand, the limber gunners with their horses and waggons, the groups of civilian spectators standing as near as they were permitted, the evening stillness, the ambulances and hospital tents with the burned and wounded from Weybridge; then the dull resonance of the shots the Martians fired, and the clumsy projectile whirling over the trees and houses and smashing amid the neighbouring fields.
One may picture, too, the sudden shifting of the attention, the swiftly spreading coils and bellyings of that blackness advancing headlong, towering heavenward, turning the twilight to a palpable darkness, a strange and horrible antagonist of vapour striding upon its victims, men and horses near it seen dimly, running, shrieking, falling headlong, shouts of dismay, the guns suddenly abandoned, men choking and writhing on the ground, and the swift broadening-out of the opaque cone of smoke. And then night and extinction--nothing but a silent mass of impenetrable vapour hiding its dead.
Wells then makes this explicit:
Why this action? They aren't really hamstringing mankind; they're hamstringing London. Why Britain? Britain, how much they could they have seen that it was the centre of the world? Why not Berlin, why not Paris? I think the answer is that Britain is on an island. As we know, there were only ten cylinders in the first wave:Had the Martians aimed only at destruction, they might on Monday have annihilated the entire population of London, as it spread itself slowly through the home counties. Not only along the road through Barnet, but also through Edgware and Waltham Abbey, and along the roads eastward to Southend and Shoeburyness, and south of the Thames to Deal and Broadstairs, poured the same frantic rout. If one could have hung that June morning in a balloon in the blazing blue above London every northward and eastward road running out of the tangled maze of streets would have seemed stippled black with the streaming fugitives, each dot a human agony of terror and physical distress. I have set forth at length in the last chapter my brother's account of the road through Chipping Barnet, in order that my readers may realise how that swarming of black dots appeared to one of those concerned. Never before in the history of the world had such a mass of human beings moved and suffered together. The legendary hosts of Goths and Huns, the hugest armies Asia has ever seen, would have been but a drop in that current. And this was no disciplined march; it was a stampede--a stampede gigantic and terrible--without order and without a goal, six million people unarmed and unprovisioned, driving headlong. It was the beginning of the rout of civilisation, of the massacre of mankind.
Directly below him the balloonist would have seen the network of streets far and wide, houses, churches, squares, crescents, gardens--already derelict--spread out like a huge map, and in the southwardblotted. Over Ealing, Richmond, Wimbledon, it would have seemed as if some monstrous pen had flung ink upon the chart. Steadily, incessantly, each black splash grew and spread, shooting out ramifications this way and that, now banking itself against rising ground, now pouring swiftly over a crest into a new-found valley, exactly as a gout of ink would spread itself upon blotting paper.
And beyond, over the blue hills that rise southward of the river, the glittering Martians went to and fro, calmly and methodically spreading their poison cloud over this patch of country and then over that, laying it again with their steam jets when it had served its purpose, and taking possession of the conquered country. They do not seem to have aimed at extermination so much as at complete demoralisation and the destruction of any opposition. They exploded any stores of powder they came upon, cut every telegraph, and wrecked the railways here and there. They were hamstringing mankind. They seemed in no hurry to extend the field of their operations, and did not come beyond the central part of London all that day. It is possible that a very considerable number of people in London stuck to their houses through Monday morning. Certain it is that many died at home suffocated by the Black Smoke.
For some reason, they could not project a larger force. Britain was a springboard. Did they know that it was important? Possibly they were able to track the wakes of ships from Mars or some other grand endeavour of telescopic refinement. Quite possibly they had observed that of all the cities on Earth, the lights of London had grown the fastest and furthest in the past century--London's population growth was immense in the 19th century, and with the invention of gas-lighting, probably detectable and obvious."It's all over," he said. "They've lost one--just one. And they've made their footing good and crippled the greatest power in the world. They've walked over us. The death of that one at Weybridge was an accident. And these are only pioneers. They kept on coming. These green stars--I've seen none these five or six days, but I've no doubt they're falling somewhere every night. Nothing's to be done. We're under! We're beat!"
I made him no answer. I sat staring before me, trying in vain to devise some countervailing thought.
"This isn't a war," said the artilleryman. "It never was a war, any more than there's war between man and ants."
Suddenly I recalled the night in the observatory.
"After the tenth shot they fired no more--at least, until the first cylinder came."
But it seems that Britain being an island was just right. The objective of the first landing was not to destroy humanity, and indeed it could not, for it was much too small. The objective was to establish a base which could be defended against counterattack while at the same time providing a large enough habitat and secure territory from which to build up a full strength invasion force. Britain was Okinawa in preparation for Downfall.
That was the Martian objective. And that is why the military situation shows both his unique genius as a futurist and also how humanity could, in fact, have fought back, because in the time before the Martians had built up in Britain to conquer the rest of the world, the critical gas-masks and protective gear against the black smoke could have gone a long way to equalise the contest.
Or could it have?
The Martians understood the OODA loop extremely well, which brings us to:
They were experimenting on a "great flying machine". There is no guarantee they had aircraft in the thin aircraft on Mars, but from their rocketry, they knew the principles of flight and aerodynamics. If the machine had succeeded, it is obvious what the next step would have been:Across the pit on its farther lip, flat and vast and strange, lay the great flying-machine with which they had been experimenting upon our denser atmosphere when decay and death arrested them. Death had come not a day too soon. At the sound of a cawing overhead I looked up at the huge fighting-machine that would fight no more for ever, at the tattered red shreds of flesh that dripped down upon the overturned seats on the summit of Primrose Hill.
Using the black smoke to strategic bomb with chemical weapons the major industrial cities of continental Europe to disrupt defensive preparations.
Whether or not it would have succeeded, though, is up to the interpretation of the reader.