The future Frederick the Great dies in 1739
- Thread starter WolfBear
- Start date
Move on Silesia - yes.Seven years war- no.No partitions of Poland,too - it was his idea.
No seven years war - France still in North America and India,and do not hating England
No help for colonials from France - no USA
No England helping start french Revolution.
So,we have Europe still ruled by Kings,although Poland probably still be taken down later.
Interesting idea. It would cause some problems for Prussia and without his leadership if his successor still seeks to breach the Pragmatic Sanction agreement they might end up defeated. If so and Silesia is retained by Austria then its likely that the traditional alliance with Britain and the Netherlands remain and France stays the prime enemy of both. Alternatively [or possibly also] Bavaria which encouraged by France started the conflict could lose territory as a result. Mind you possibly Bavaria gets any lost land back in return for the return of the Austrian Netherlands to Austria - as opposed to Britain giving up gains in Canada.
In which case when the next conflict comes along its difficult to see how things go as the Austrians would be somewhat stronger but they might be distracted by the Ottomans or Russia depending on events. There will be such conflicts due to the assorted tensions and clashes, both in Europe and also the colonial sphere. Its possible that France will do what it did in the 1770's earlier, seeking to isolate Britain for a purely colonial conflict between it and Spain against Britain. However without the OTL successes of the 7YW its unlikely that British diplomacy will be as appalling as OTL and also with France still entrenched in Louisiana and Canada the colonies will be committed to loyalty. Plus we could have the big advantage in such a scenario of Pitt the elder coming to power. As such I would expect such a war ending in a British victory but not by as large a degree as OTL. What would happen after that would depend on circumstances.
In terms of the continent it would also depend on how badly or not Prussia was weakened and does Saxony stay the primary Protestant state in the empire. Assuming Catherine still ends up as empress of Russia she will seek to encroach on Poland among other targets but what would Austria's stance be. Likely to be reluctant to join in but would it risk making Russia an enemy with its other problems?
Given the chronic corruption and incompetence in the French monarchy your likely to see a crisis at some stage. Unless someone is able to persuade the clergy and aristocrats to commit to the state rather than just leech off it its likely to end in at least an attempt at revolution. Whether that succeeds or not could vary but sooner or later reform will be necessary. How that develops is likely to affect European and world history greatly.
Catherina do not wanted pertitions,becouse she arleady controlled entire Poland.But,considering how weak our state were,somebody later probably would do that.
Could we see a Polish-Russian Ausgleich scenario in Russia in this scenario? Specifically a loose federal arrangement with a single monarch?
What would Austria prefer? Bavarian land or to keep the Austrian Netherlands?
And France would remain a Prussian ally in this TL, right?
Just how much of its North American colonies is France likely to keep in this TL?
Why exactly wouldn't Saxony stay Protestant?
Makes sense.
Don't know. If so it would be by force and it also would require other powers, most noticeably Prussia, Austria and France be willing to see Russia gaining such massive territory. I suspect that Russia would have to make some concessions to at least one or two of those powers, which would probably mean a Polish partition probably similar to OTL.
Well from what I've read it was a bit more complex than that with Joseph wanting part of Bavaria but unclear what he was offering in return. What I once read of an actual transfer of both territories seems to have been a simplification.
At the time Belgium was probably the richer territory. However it was highly vulnerable to French pressure while international agreement greatly reduced the value of Antwerp. Bavaria would give Austria strategic depth in southern Germany while removing what had often been a French ally in previous conflicts. If a full swap had gone through then I think it would have been a good bargain for Austria but probably not for the Bavarian dynasty as they could struggle to hold Belgium.
Well it was more a case Prussia became a French ally as for all Prussia's gain in taking Silesia it was still very much a 2nd rank power.
As always the devil would be in the detail. A wide range of outcomes depending on what develops. Britain has a more developed economic and is already in the early stages of an industrial revolution while in N America it has a much larger demographic base but a France that had set itself up for a purely colonial war could be quite a challenge as the 1770s showed.
To clarify I meant that Saxony might still be seen as a major challenger to Prussia as the most powerful Protestant state in Germany. Rather than being eclipsed by Prussia.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
Yeah, I don't see Augustus William being anything like his brother. Way more cautious and defensive. No wild schemes for that one. He aso predeceased Frederick in OTL, so his son would become king much earlier. (And would presumably not be kept from serious duties for most of his youth, so he might be a bit better prepared to govern, in fact.)
Yes,he was mad.And,if Russia do not get Mad tsar who dreamed about being Frederic servant,Prussia would cease to exist.
Unfortunatelly for humanity,they survived and turned most of germans into little prussians.
Which sucked for Europe,becouse united Germany started and lost two world wars.Which sucked for Poland!
Poland would be fucked anyway - becouse in 1772 we were russian semi-colony.Without Partition we would be eaten by some tsar later.
Then we could eventually see a Polish-Russian Ausgleich-style situation in Russia develop once Russia will eventually reform. As in, there will be two halves of Russia: A Polish half and a Russian half, who will be connected in a loose union with the central government determining things such as foreign policy but with each of the halves having extremely wide autonomy in regards to determining domestic policy. Though of course Russia might aim to put the Ukrainian-heavy and Belarusian-heavy parts of Poland into the Russian half of the Russian Empire in this TL.
Most likely as you said.Better then OTL for everybody including prussians,who as result of their success ceased to exist in OTL.
Yep, Frederick the Great helped pave the way for the Prussia-screw in the long-run lol:
Nowadays, only the area around Berlin and a few other small territories are all that remains of historical Prussia in German hands. All of the rest is now in Polish (or Czech, or Lithuanian, or Russian) hands!