The early deaths of Franz-Joseph - 1896, 1906, or 1911

sillygoose

Well-known member
But wouldn't WWI start over the Ausgleich in this TL?
Sorry, we've been posting in so many threads with similar title I didn't see this one was about the Ausgleich starting the war.

So yes, you'd be correct it would be possible to import provided Britain didn't decide to rat-f Germany.

As to the rest though, withdrawing and abandoning all that territory, would be a non-starter for any nation and political death as these were democracies and they couldn't voluntarily give up that many voters/citizens to a foreign army without a fight.

Because I was presuming that WWI starts over the Ausgleich and thus Britain refuses to support open Russian aggression against Austria. That, and Germany doesn't invade Belgium since the Schlieffen Plan is no longer viable by then due to Russian railroad construction in Poland being completed as a part of the Russian Great Military Program (due for completion in 1917).
Not sure Russia would move then if Britain and probably France aren't involved. Politically it would be hard to get France to fight an aggressive war given the political power of the socialist anti-war movement in France. Russia would be on her own and even with the planned 1914-17 buildup of her armies fighting Germany and Austria by herself was not something Russia would want to do even if Austria were in a civil war; besides a Russian invasion would cause a 'rally around the flag' effect that would probably cut off the civil war quickly as everyone understood what a defeat would mean.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Sorry, we've been posting in so many threads with similar title I didn't see this one was about the Ausgleich starting the war.

So yes, you'd be correct it would be possible to import provided Britain didn't decide to rat-f Germany.

As to the rest though, withdrawing and abandoning all that territory, would be a non-starter for any nation and political death as these were democracies and they couldn't voluntarily give up that many voters/citizens to a foreign army without a fight.


Not sure Russia would move then if Britain and probably France aren't involved. Politically it would be hard to get France to fight an aggressive war given the political power of the socialist anti-war movement in France. Russia would be on her own and even with the planned 1914-17 buildup of her armies fighting Germany and Austria by herself was not something Russia would want to do even if Austria were in a civil war; besides a Russian invasion would cause a 'rally around the flag' effect that would probably cut off the civil war quickly as everyone understood what a defeat would mean.

Yeah, since Franz Ferdinand was a peacenik, I would think that if he lived and WWI were to eventually start, it would likely be either over the Ausgleich or over the Armenians/Kurds in the Ottoman Empire. (Persia is, of course, another less likely possibility for this.)

OK; good.

FWIW, this wouldn't be so much a withdrawal due to conscious choice but rather due to a desire to avoid extremely massive encirclements. It's either withdraw and preserve as much of one's army as possible and not withdraw and ultimately end up getting the same front lines, if not even worse ones, while also taking much more severe casualties in the process.

I don't see Russia sparking a war if at least France isn't on its side, and even in 1917, I'm not sure that France would actually be willing to fight without Britain on its side. Maybe in 1930 or 1940, but possibly not in 1917. But if France and Russia do go to war over the Ausgleich in 1917 without Britain on their side, then Yeah, I would certainly expect war fever to be much higher in Germany and A-H than in France and Russia, where socialists are going to be obviously and blatantly accusing their countries' leadership of dragging their countries into a blatantly predatory imperialist war. The crucial question would, of course, become whether Russia can actually help the Hungarians before they will collapse, in which case the war could be over pretty quickly with a status quo ante bellum peace, unless perhaps the Germano-Austrians will want to shore up their own future security by, say, going after Russian Poland + Lithuania + Courland afterwards. But Yeah, French and Russian socialists certainly aren't going to want their countries' young men to bleed and die for the sake of a reactionary Magyar autocracy that makes even Franz Ferdinand (due to his support of universal suffrage in Hungary) look liberal by comparison.

Also, one more thing: If the Schlieffen Plan will become outdated, then Germany might be compelled to resort to an East-first strategy in any alt-WWI that breaks out in either 1917 or later.
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
@sillygoose What odds would you place on Austria-Hungary eventually experiencing a revolution had FF lived due to FF's absolutist tendencies and inclinations?
Not sure to be honest. If he could beat the Magyar nobility and reform Hungary he would actually be viewed as a more forward thinking ruler IMHO, since he'd have expanded the franchise. Despite being an archconservative he wasn't stupid and realized there was no putting the genie back in the bottle so his only hope was to do an end-run around the hostile nobility in Hungary to turn to the people as his way out of the deadlock on Dual Kingdom issues. Within Austria he'd probably keep the status quo, as getting rid of parliament there wasn't going to happen. Since they already had universal male suffrage then doing the same in Hungary just makes it seem like he's doing right by his citizens by equalizing things.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Not sure to be honest. If he could beat the Magyar nobility and reform Hungary he would actually be viewed as a more forward thinking ruler IMHO, since he'd have expanded the franchise. Despite being an archconservative he wasn't stupid and realized there was no putting the genie back in the bottle so his only hope was to do an end-run around the hostile nobility in Hungary to turn to the people as his way out of the deadlock on Dual Kingdom issues. Within Austria he'd probably keep the status quo, as getting rid of parliament there wasn't going to happen. Since they already had universal male suffrage then doing the same in Hungary just makes it seem like he's doing right by his citizens by equalizing things.

Just how much power did the Austrian and Hungarian parliaments actually have, though? Because if they had as little power as the Russian Duma had, then that's not exactly comforting.
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
Intriguing. Did the A-H parliaments vote in favor of war in 1914?
I'm not exactly clear from the description, but in Hungary it seems despite it supporting the war parliament didn't vote for it and the king declared war on his own:
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
I'm not exactly clear from the description, but in Hungary it seems despite it supporting the war parliament didn't vote for it and the king declared war on his own:

Interesting.

BTW, off-topic, but in a 1917 alt-WWI that involves a Hungarian secession attempt, just how likely do you think that Serbia, Romania, and/or Italy will be in supporting separatist movements within Austria-Hungary? Serbia in Bosnia, Romania in Transylvania and Bukovina, and Italy in Trentino, Trieste, Istria, and Fiume, I mean.
 

sillygoose

Well-known member
Interesting.

BTW, off-topic, but in a 1917 alt-WWI that involves a Hungarian secession attempt, just how likely do you think that Serbia, Romania, and/or Italy will be in supporting separatist movements within Austria-Hungary? Serbia in Bosnia, Romania in Transylvania and Bukovina, and Italy in Trentino, Trieste, Istria, and Fiume, I mean.
I don't see why they wouldn't.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Not sure to be honest. If he could beat the Magyar nobility and reform Hungary he would actually be viewed as a more forward thinking ruler IMHO, since he'd have expanded the franchise. Despite being an archconservative he wasn't stupid and realized there was no putting the genie back in the bottle so his only hope was to do an end-run around the hostile nobility in Hungary to turn to the people as his way out of the deadlock on Dual Kingdom issues. Within Austria he'd probably keep the status quo, as getting rid of parliament there wasn't going to happen. Since they already had universal male suffrage then doing the same in Hungary just makes it seem like he's doing right by his citizens by equalizing things.

Question: If diluting the Magyars' power in Hungary was super-crucial for a surviving Franz Ferdinand, why not go a step further and add both Galicia and Bukovina to Hungary? Their placement in Austria was a bit strange considering that geographically they would fit in much more in Hungary than in Austria. Adding both Galicia and Bukovina to Hungary would further dilute the Magyars' demographic strength in Hungary by adding a lot of additional Slavs and Romanians into Hungary.
 

Buba

A total creep
Adding Galicia to Hungary - an idea which did rear its ugly head around 1900 would cause a revolt among all three concerned parties - Hungarians, Poles and Ukrainians ...
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Adding Galicia to Hungary - an idea which did rear its ugly head around 1900 would cause a revolt among all three concerned parties - Hungarians, Poles and Ukrainians ...

What about the fourth party: The Galician Jews? ;)

1910_Jewish_Population_Density_of_the_Kingdom_of_Galicia_and_Lodomeria.svg
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
Not enough of them to matter.

And they're not violence-ready enough to matter.

But seriously, why would Hungarians, Poles, and Ukrainians all be so pissed off by an administrative change like what is discussed? The Hungarians and Poles didn't tend to have conflicting claims/interests - rather mutual admiration. The Ukrainians had issues with Poles, but that just follows them whether they are in Austria or Hungary.
 

Buba

A total creep
The Poles no longer are the big dogs who can boss over the Ukrainians in return for siding with the "Germans" against the "Czechs" in the Austrian Parliament. This influence garnering role is now gone, but maybe they toady up to the Magyars ...
The Hungarians are diluted even further - down from 10M in 20M to 10M in 30M - and find it more difficult to boss over others.
The Ukrainians lose the Viennese "umbrella" protecting them from the Poles. Although maybe Budapest will prop them up to keep the Poles from getting uppity.
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
My initial thoughts going in -

Scenario 1 - 1896
Best-case - Franz-Ferdinand wank. F-F reforms the empire, and builds good relations with Russia (while maintaining excellent relations with Wilhelm) through agreements in 1897 and 1903 to keep the Balkans, "on ice". In 1903, this includes acting, with Russian permission, against the Serbian regicides, since its is in "his", western, "half" of the Balkans (Romania and Bulgaria being the Russian "half"). He cold-shoulders the Italians in the Triple Alliance re-negotiations of 1903, but at the same time, encourages the Willy-Nicky correspondence, which broadens into the Willy-Nicky-Franky letters, and when Nicky looks for a Bjork-like alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary over the Far East, Franky and Willy with Franky's encouragement goes for it. This leaves France as frustrated, non-exclusive, fourth ally.

Worst-case - Franz-Ferdinand tries to reform the empire and uses leverage during Ausgleich negotiations in 1897 to do it. The Hungarians rebel, and F-F rallies counter-revolutionary forces of other groups. The Hungarians are on the path to losing, but fighting lasts long enough to be called a civil war, and for Romania, Serbia, and Italy to intervene over border areas, and then the Germans to intervene on behalf of F-F, and then Russia and France to intervene to counter Germany. We have an early WWI with the Triple Alliance and CP's starting off disorganized and divided against themselves, but at least the British are not intervening on the Franco-Russian side. But things look bleak for the Austro-German side to come out of the conflict with everything it had at the beginning.

Scenario 2 - 1906

Best-case Franz-Ferdinand wank. F-F reforms the empire, and builds good relations with Russia (while maintaining excellent relations with Wilhelm). The Young Turk revolution of 1908 forces him to resolve the status of Bosnia, ultimately through annexation, but the personal correspondence he establishes with Nicholas via Wilhelm helps F-F and Nicholas keep better control over Aehrenthal and Isvolski handle their bargaining and announcements of moves and promises with more tact and consistency, allowing negative publicity to be handled without ultimatums and bullying. F-F's reforms also remove Magyar fiscal obstruction to decent military and other public investments.

Worst-case - Franz-Ferdinand tries to reform the empire and uses leverage during Ausgleich negotiations in 1907 to do it. The Hungarians rebel, and F-F rallies counter-revolutionary forces of other groups. The Hungarians are on the path to losing, but fighting lasts long enough to be called a civil war, and for Romania, Serbia, and Italy to intervene over border areas, and then the Germans to intervene on behalf of F-F, and then Russia and France to intervene to counter Germany. We have an early WWI with the Triple Alliance and CP's starting off disorganized and divided against themselves, and worse, the British, having recently concluded a convention with Russia, are taking a pro-Franco-Russian stance, threatening to poach German colonies or Copenhagen the German fleet. Things look bleak for the Austro-German side to come out of the conflict with everything it had at the beginning.

Scenario 3 - 1911

Best-case Franz-Ferdinand wank. F-F reforms the empire, and strives to conciliate Russia and support the Balkan status quo. It's not easy because of where things were left off with the Bosnian crisis. His domestic pro-Slavism may be seen as a positive however in Russia. The country really testing his nerves, and the nerves of his close friend Conrad Hotzendorff, however, is Italy, a so-called "ally". Italy is insisting on going to war with the Ottomans, even at risk of destabilizing the Balkans, despite Austrian mediation proposals that would give Italy practical control over Tripoli under Ottoman suzerainty. F-F, on taking the throne and command of state affairs, gets quite direct with the Italians that the mediation proposal is the best deal he can support for Rome, and he can't support an Italian war on Turkey. By this point, the Italian government is too far committed to its warlike course to back-down and issues its ultimatum, declaration, and attack in September.

F-F and Hotzendorff are livid about Italian recklessness. F-F agrees to Conrad's previously stated advocacy for war to crush Italy, and launches several weeks preparation to launch an ultimatum, DoW, and attack over the border before the mountain passes freeze .

Austria attacks Italy in late October or early November, citing as its excuse Italy's refusal to cease its unprovoked aggression against Turkey. Fighting Italy is something that almost all nationalities in the Austrian empire can agree on. Austria's attacks into Venezia make it impossible for Italy to reinforce Tripoli, and Austria soon forms an alliance and joint Army and Navy planning with the Ottomans. This deters and contains any potential aggression by Armies and Navies of the Balkan states.

When the war finally ends in 1912, Austria wins in the settlement a restoration of the Ottoman status quo, an indemnity from the Italians, a demilitarized zone in Lombardy and Venezia, and, most cruelly, the hand-over of Italy's colonial trophies, Somalia, which goes to Austria, and Eritrea, which is split between Austria and Abyssinia, which joins the Austro-Ottoman side by 1912.


Worst-case - Franz-Ferdinand tries to reform the empire strives to conciliate the Russians but is confronted immediately with the Italo-Ottoman crisis upon taking the throne. Despite F-F's mediation and warnings, the Italians go to war in September. F-F and Conrad resolve on war against Italy. Despite conciliatory moves towards Russia, Nicholas is too weak to resist Russian ministers who insist that Russia must mobilize and cannot let Austria crush Italy, and must use this opportunity to humiliate Austria, win a new ally, and gain revenge for the Bosnia crisis. The French, seeing a similar opportunity, and unlike in the Morocco instance earlier in the year, seeing a crisis where Russia has skin in the game, do nothing to discourage Russian mobilization.

The Austrian attack on Italy is followed by Russian mobilization, then German mobilization, then French, then German attack on Belgium and France, then Russian attack on Germany and Austria (and the Ottomans), then British declaration of war on Germany.

I think that it is most likely in the last scenario that Nicholas II does not mobilize in favor of Italy, but is willing to mobilize in favor of the Balkan League if they still decide to declare war on the Ottoman Empire and will subsequently be at risk of losing this war. In such a scenario, I wonder if Franz Ferdinand might aim for a negotiated peace due to his fear of a war with Russia. Whether Russia would actually accept would be an interesting question, of course, especially if it already secured the Anglo-French as its allies in this impending Great War.
 

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