The Cardassian Empire vs the UNSC Round Duo!

[The Original Sixth]

Let's take the previous discussion to the next level!

Cardassian Union -- 2380

• Is fast-forwarded 5 years after the end of the Dominion War.
• Was aided in recovery of their industrial and political base by the Federation as established in the show. They still retain the industrial replicators they were given.
• All foreign occupation was removed roughly 18 months before this versus.
• Cardassian military assets are as they were at the end of the Dominion War, but with one exception; all surviving military installations and ships were repaired, but were effectively mothballed during the occupation, save for a token force needed for defense and patrol.
• Given that the conservative estimate for the Cardassian military is at ~30,000,000 people (including space and ground forces and everyone involved thereof) and they suffered a loss of ~23% before the war was even over, I'll assume that the Cardassian military took a rough 70% loss in military personnel and resources. That's a good baseline, but feel welcome to argue that point.
• Cardassia will NOT have Bajor or Bajor's colonies.
• DMZ worlds will be limited to the ones that the Cardassians were given in the original deal between them and the Federation.

UNSC -- 2557

• Is fast-forwarded 5 years after the war with the Covenant. Some of you will notice that this right around Halo 4. This occurs just before Halo 4.
• No Forerunner story arc. Essentially, the Forerunner-Promethean plot is put on hold for everyone.
• The Covenant will be neutral. They will not attack either side and neither side will attack them.
• Neither side can fire the rings, but they may be of strategic or technological use.
• The Cardassian Union appears on the eastern section of UNSC space, more or less similar to their position to the Federation.

The Situation

• Both sides are aware that the other emerged recently from a war that neither have yet to fully recover from. Both sides are fuzzy on the specifics, but have a general idea what happened.
• Both sides estimate that open war will occur within 18 months.
• Both sides are intent upon conquering the other.

 

[Spartan303]

Both sides are freaking dumb-asses for even thinking war considering how their respective last wars utterly decimated them both.

 

[The Original Sixth]

Both sides are freaking dumb-asses for even thinking war considering how their respective last wars utterly decimated them both.

It has a lot to do with mutual distrust and the danger of allowing one competitor to have an advantage over you for the future. Even Germany went to war a second time after only 11 years in regards to ww1 and ww2.

And with the build up time, it's closer to 6.5 years.

 

[Battlegrinder]

It has a lot to do with mutual distrust and the danger of allowing one competitor to have an advantage over you for the future.

True, but we've also seen how the UNSC, or at least ONI, acts in that exact situation with the covenant. The do the usual CIA style destabilization/riling up milititant factions/etc stuff, not open warfare. I'm not sure why this would change in this scenario.


I'm also not sure the UNSC really has the strength for any kind of major offensive. They have a few rebuilt defensive fleets that they seem extremely reluctant to release from the system they're holding, and the infinity, which while more powerful than anything the cardassian can throw at it and probably capable of seizing an average planet all on its own, is still only one ship and can only do so much on it's own. Outside of something like a lightning fast SPARTAN lead decapitation strike against cardassia, I'm not sure what offensive opitions the UNSC has open to it.

 

[S'task]

Cardassian Union -- 2380

Critical question:

Does the Cardassian Union have Garek?

 

[Battlegrinder]

Critical question:

Does the Cardassian Union have Garek?

I would assume so, in most post DS9 continuities he's still around running the union's intelligence service. Except STO, where he appears to just be the cardassian intelligence service in it's entirety.

 

[Deleted member 88]

I thought in the novelverse he was the head of the Cardassian government?

 

[The Original Sixth]

I'm also not sure the UNSC really has the strength for any kind of major offensive.

Nevertheless, they will need to do something. The Cardassians will do something.

They have a few rebuilt defensive fleets that they seem extremely reluctant to release from the system they're holding, and the infinity, which while more powerful than anything the cardassian can throw at it and probably capable of seizing an average planet all on its own, is still only one ship and can only do so much on it's own. Outside of something like a lightning fast SPARTAN lead decapitation strike against cardassia, I'm not sure what offensive opitions the UNSC has open to it.

Well, what would you do in their place? An aggressive enemy that you believe will be in open war with you within 18 months.

 

[Battlegrinder]

Well, what would you do in their place? An aggressive enemy that you believe will be in open war with you within 18 months.

Well, outside of the SPARTAN decapitation strike or sending them out on prowlers to sabotage cardassian military infrastructure (which might work, I think Prowlers have cloaking devices these days), I'm not sure the UNSC has the resources to go on the offensive.

What I would do is, presuming that the various ONI skulduggery in the past year and half gives the UNSC a rough understanding of what cardassian tech can do, would to be to focus on defense engagements. The UNSC should be able to get transporter jammers rigged up, given how touchy transporter are, on a scale wide enough to at least prevent the cardies from beaming directly onto UNSC cities or bases. That will force any ground assaults into a more or less conventional engagement (the post dominion war cardassian government is probably going to be very reluctant to resort to orbital bombard after what happened to them during the war), and I don't like their odds of pulling that off, the UNSC is going to be far better at that form of warfare then they are if only due to greater experience, and probably enjoys a comfortable numerical edge as well.

Spacewise.....I have no idea, honestly, our picture of how rebuilt the UNSC navy is and what kind of defenses they have is extremely unclear. I think it's reasonable to assume that Earth is going to be as close to impregnable as the UNSC can manage, including newly built ODPs and a massive defensive fleet, but beyond that I'm not sure.


For offense, it's basically going to be the infinity and her battlegroup, and while they can probably handle an engagement at even to slightly outnumbered odds, they can't win the war conventional. So it's probably going to limited to raiding......or NOVA bombing something important right of the gate and demanding the cardassians surrender.

 

[The Original Sixth]

Well, outside of the SPARTAN decapitation strike or sending them out on prowlers to sabotage cardassian military infrastructure (which might work, I think Prowlers have cloaking devices these days), I'm not sure the UNSC has the resources to go on the offensive.

Certainly would seem like a good idea.

What I would do is, presuming that the various ONI skulduggery in the past year and half gives the UNSC a rough understanding of what cardassian tech can do, would to be to focus on defense engagements. The UNSC should be able to get transporter jammers rigged up, given how touchy transporter are, on a scale wide enough to at least prevent the cardies from beaming directly onto UNSC cities or bases.

I see you relying on this argument a lot, and while there are some merits to it, I think I should disabuse you of the notion that you can bring Cardassian transporter tech to a halt with jamming technology.

First the merits. The means of producing transporter jammers is fairly low tech, all things considered. And the UNSC has shown to have actual shields, so the technology is easily within their reach. You yourself have pointed out that magnetic shields can effectively block a transporter and of course, one of your favorites is the limitations as they were presented in Legacy, which was actually a great episode when the Enterprise D crew had to look at the limitations of their own abilities and how a possible adversary could exploit them. Primarily being unable to transport through two solid kilometers of granite and the difficulty in getting a lock while under a transformer substation. And of course, in Insurrection, the Enterprise E crew used both transport jammers and a special ore located within a mountain region to avoid transporters.

Let's look at the weaknesses of such defenses though.

The first is one of infrastructure. Jammers need energy and you're going to need a fair amount of them to cover something the size of a city. So right away, we know that anyone using them needs to have the resources and the money to produce them. On a planet, that immediately means all those large agricultural fields, those small towns, and remotely located infrastructure is not going to be able to be protected. Now that's fine for a short-term invasion. That's not fine if the Cardassians are able to maintain an orbital presence and can beam troops down to cut off supplies and destroy transport infrastructure. Those protected cities essentially become small isolated islands.

For a city, the problems get more complicated. The most obvious target is not going to be the emitters themselves, but rather the source of their power. If the UNSC powers a city by only a handful of power plants, the Cardassians can make a pin-point strike from a Galor in orbit. A few hits on the fusion reactor, even if they don't outright destroy the facility, could shut it down for hours or days. Even weeks. Even if the UNSC is able to keep enough power flowing to keep the shield jammers up, the rest of the city is going to suffer rolling brownouts. That causes stress on the citizens and in turn makes it more difficult for the UNSC to operate and keep the peace. Especially if the Cardassians have already cut off food imports into the city.

Then of course, the Cardassians can also target the actual jammers themselves. For large-scale emitters, a Galor is probably more than capable of wiping it out. If we're looking at smaller scale jammers, such as the ones used in Insurrection, the Cardassians can send down fighters, skimmers, or even drones to remove those pesky things. One could argue about the abilities of the UNSC air defense network and certainly that is going to be an issue--so the Cardassians will have to target and destroy them first.

Nor do the Cardassians need to take out the entire city's power or jammers; they just have to make enough holes to be able to get troops on the ground in key areas. For example, instead of destroying or disabling the power plants with weapon fire from orbit, the Cardassians could send down fighters to take out the energy infrastructure of the jammers and then just shut down the plants themselves. Even a few minutes of total blackout over part of the city could be devastating to the UNSC's defenses.

Rather, the utility of jammers is going to be most useful for military bases, especially bunkers. A city is so large that it's almost impossible to defend it with just one new technology. It won't make a difference. When it comes to a military base, those jammers will be far more effective and when it comes to actual bunkers, transporters are more or less removed from the table. The flaw here though is that these additions won't make the entire base safe from any sort of assault, it only allows them to keep operating up to and until the Union brings the full might of their military power against those resources.

That will force any ground assaults into a more or less conventional engagement (the post dominion war cardassian government is probably going to be very reluctant to resort to orbital bombard after what happened to them during the war),

What?

I think you're confusing the Obsidian Order with the entirety of the Union. The Union did not through its proper political channels, decide to mass bomb the Founder homeworld. That was the action of the Obsidian Order. Before, the Cardassians would certainly make use of orbital strikes, but that is primarily a strategic concern. Removing critical infrastructure or resources can actually shorten a war and reduce casualties, as it forces the enemy to submit without having to grind them down to dust first. When the Founders decided to begin eradicating the population as punishment for their disobedience, it really had no bearing on the previous legitimate use of orbital strikes by the Union.

and I don't like their odds of pulling that off, the UNSC is going to be far better at that form of warfare then they are if only due to greater experience, and probably enjoys a comfortable numerical edge as well.

No, I disagree.

The Covenant's use of "orbital" strikes was more about their zealotry than it was about strategy. The Covenant practiced a sort of warfare that was more about steamrolling whatever they came across than it was about modern warfare. And within the context of the Covenant, that makes sense. The UNSC took a different approach; they used special forces to weaken the Covenant's ability to fight.

The flaw in your reasoning is that the Union isn't the Covenant; they are going to fight in a style that the UNSC excels at--admittedly probably more so when it comes to the individual units. The fact is though, the Cardassian soldiers individually don't need to be as good or even as well prepared as the UNSC's special forces, because the Cardassians enjoy a greater level of mobility, greater fire support, and information.

For offense, it's basically going to be the infinity and her battlegroup, and while they can probably handle an engagement at even to slightly outnumbered odds, they can't win the war conventional. So it's probably going to limited to raiding......or NOVA bombing something important right of the gate and demanding the cardassians surrender.

A NOVA bomb would essentially be asking the Cardassians to respond with a biogenic weapon against Earth. And the Cardassians already have all the necessary biological information on humans to make one.

 

[Battlegrinder]

The first is one of infrastructure. Jammers need energy and you're going to need a fair amount of them to cover something the size of a city. So right away, we know that anyone using them needs to have the resources and the money to produce them. On a planet, that immediately means all those large agricultural fields, those small towns, and remotely located infrastructure is not going to be able to be protected. Now that's fine for a short-term invasion. That's not fine if the Cardassians are able to maintain an orbital presence and can beam troops down to cut off supplies and destroy transport infrastructure. Those protected cities essentially become small isolated islands.

That really depends on how much time the UNSC has to prepare and manufacture jammers.

For a city, the problems get more complicated. The most obvious target is not going to be the emitters themselves, but rather the source of their power. If the UNSC powers a city by only a handful of power plants, the Cardassians can make a pin-point strike from a Galor in orbit. A few hits on the fusion reactor, even if they don't outright destroy the facility, could shut it down for hours or days. Even weeks. Even if the UNSC is able to keep enough power flowing to keep the shield jammers up, the rest of the city is going to suffer rolling brownouts. That causes stress on the citizens and in turn makes it more difficult for the UNSC to operate and keep the peace. Especially if the Cardassians have already cut off food imports into the city.

I would assume that a fair number of those jammers would have thier own power supply, rather than being tied into an external grid, for exactly that reason.

Then of course, the Cardassians can also target the actual jammers themselves. For large-scale emitters, a Galor is probably more than capable of wiping it out. If we're looking at smaller scale jammers, such as the ones used in Insurrection, the Cardassians can send down fighters, skimmers, or even drones to remove those pesky things. One could argue about the abilities of the UNSC air defense network and certainly that is going to be an issue--so the Cardassians will have to target and destroy them first.

Nor do the Cardassians need to take out the entire city's power or jammers; they just have to make enough holes to be able to get troops on the ground in key areas. For example, instead of destroying or disabling the power plants with weapon fire from orbit, the Cardassians could send down fighters to take out the energy infrastructure of the jammers and then just shut down the plants themselves. Even a few minutes of total blackout over part of the city could be devastating to the UNSC's defenses.

I'm not so sure the cardassians can do even that, I think you might be overestatiming thier sensors capabilities because you're basing this estimate on what the federation can do, not what the cardies can. Unless I'm missing something, a sensor capable of detecting something as small as a jammer from orbit, should also be able to detect weapons and explosives from a roughly similar range. But we know the Bajorian resistance was able to conceal thier equipment from the cardassians, and while certainly some of that could have been via hiding in areas with sensor jamming equipment or natual features that blocked them, they would have had to leave those places to attack, and unless they brought jamming gear with them everywhere (which would have been a bad idea), they would have had that stuff detected once they left those safe zones.

You've mentioned before that the cardassians are a third rate power, but I'm not sure if you're treating them as a third rate power all the time when assessing what they can do.

Rather, the utility of jammers is going to be most useful for military bases, especially bunkers. A city is so large that it's almost impossible to defend it with just one new technology. It won't make a difference. When it comes to a military base, those jammers will be far more effective and when it comes to actual bunkers, transporters are more or less removed from the table. The flaw here though is that these additions won't make the entire base safe from any sort of assault, it only allows them to keep operating up to and until the Union brings the full might of their military power against those resources.

What?

I think you're confusing the Obsidian Order with the entirety of the Union. The Union did not through its proper political channels, decide to mass bomb the Founder homeworld. That was the action of the Obsidian Order. Before, the Cardassians would certainly make use of orbital strikes, but that is primarily a strategic concern. Removing critical infrastructure or resources can actually shorten a war and reduce casualties, as it forces the enemy to submit without having to grind them down to dust first. When the Founders decided to begin eradicating the population as punishment for their disobedience, it really had no bearing on the previous legitimate use of orbital strikes by the Union.

No, I meant after the dominion started blowing up thier cities from orbit at the end of the war, the cardassians might be reluctant to employ such tactics themselves, like how japan is really, really anti-nuclear after we dropped the bomb on them.

No, I disagree.

The Covenant's use of "orbital" strikes was more about their zealotry than it was about strategy. The Covenant practiced a sort of warfare that was more about steamrolling whatever they came across than it was about modern warfare. And within the context of the Covenant, that makes sense. The UNSC took a different approach; they used special forces to weaken the Covenant's ability to fight.

The flaw in your reasoning is that the Union isn't the Covenant; they are going to fight in a style that the UNSC excels at--admittedly probably more so when it comes to the individual units. The fact is though, the Cardassian soldiers individually don't need to be as good or even as well prepared as the UNSC's special forces, because the Cardassians enjoy a greater level of mobility, greater fire support, and information.

I'm not talking about special forces, I'm talking about marines vs cardassians in the trenches fighting it out with tanks and artillery. Certainly, in some of those engagements the cardies will have orbital fire support and mostly unhindered transporters, but sometimes the UNSC will have the edge there, and most of the time I don't think anyone will. The cardassians probably can't afford to keep a capship presence up everywhere they're attacking, they don't have enough ships left for that, defending their territory, and trying to keep the UNSC's home fleets pinned at anchor all at the same time. During the dominion war, it was not at all uncommon for neither side to have starship support on hand during an invasion, for precisely those factors. I imagine a lot of orbital support is just going to be a handful of ships at most, and they'll be constantly at threat from being picked off by the other side's navy during an engagement (the cardassians might have the worse end of this, since it's generally harder to warp thier ships into a solar system to attack a UNSC force, while the UNSC can drop ships out of slipspace right on top of them with virtually no warning).

A NOVA bomb would essentially be asking the Cardassians to respond with a biogenic weapon against Earth. And the Cardassians already have all the necessary biological information on humans to make one.

I think trek consistently overstates the effectiveness of biological weaponry by a fair margin, and even if might turn the war into a MAD situation it's still probably the UNSC's best shot.

 

[The Original Sixth]

I would assume that a fair number of those jammers would have thier own power supply, rather than being tied into an external grid, for exactly that reason.

For a city, that is assuming a lot. You might have emergency secondary power, but those things are going to suck energy and that's going to require a grid. Masking Yar's signal basically required her being directly under it and it didn't take much effort for Riker to get her out of range (distance wise). The most efficient means is going to be plugging them directly into the power grid. You might be able to set up secondary generators so you can run them short term, but they'll run out of juice pretty quickly.

That said, a military base or a bunker would not have that same problem.

I'm not so sure the cardassians can do even that, I think you might be overestatiming thier sensors capabilities because you're basing this estimate on what the federation can do, not what the cardies can. Unless I'm missing something, a sensor capable of detecting something as small as a jammer from orbit, should also be able to detect weapons and explosives from a roughly similar range.

Um, they can. The Cardassians can tell the difference between a Federation runabout from a local freighter by reading their warp signatures light years in distance. Granted, they can also be fooled by adjusting the warp field, but if they can read a warp field light years away, they can probably locate the jammers located on the ground. It's worth noting that the So'na did this as well by using their own shuttle/fighter craft in Insurrection.

But we know the Bajorian resistance was able to conceal thier equipment from the cardassians, and while certainly some of that could have been via hiding in areas with sensor jamming equipment or natual features that blocked them, they would have had to leave those places to attack, and unless they brought jamming gear with them everywhere (which would have been a bad idea), they would have had that stuff detected once they left those safe zones.

I see, so that's what you're getting at.

You make an excellent point, but that isn't necessarily an issue about Union weakness in regards to UFP sensor tech (although it is not contested that the UFP is superior), but rather a limitation of occupation vs invasion. The issue isn't that a Galor (or satellite) can't detect Bajoran resistance fighters launching a raid on something--it's that doing so is intensive work that requires a great deal of the limited bandwith of the Union military.

If a Galor is actively taking part in an attack on a Bajoran city, it can focus its sensor pallets on where the fighting is, on the infrastructure, and enemy movements. When a Galor is part of an occupation force, it's not going to do that 24/7. Even if it did, no one is going to sit there 24/7 to keep an eye on it. Especially not the most capable people in charge as they would be for an invasion. Rather, what is going to happen is that the Galor is going to use passive scans across the city, focusing in pre-determined hotspots and occasional wide-scans. The ship won't put anyone in charge of actively looking at the sensor readouts, but will instead use Applied AI to keep an eye out for anything that would signal such an attack; energy fire and such. And an Applied AI, even one that is well programmed and holding a relatively wide array of scenarios, is not going to be a match for anything with general intelligence.

And that's assuming you use a Galor, rather than a street-level limited sensor network hooked up to a local occupation government's security office whose job it is to handle that sort of thing. Which means the hardware is far more exposed to the Bajorans, both in terms of the sensor, the network it works in, and the person who runs it. You'll occasionally have Cardassian patrols with skimmers, but you'll map their routes and prepare your attacks to compensate. If you wanted to say, bomb the Cardassian embassy or the local security office; you would plan it with those in mind. You just don't roll up on them.

So certainly, during an invasion, the UNSC can take advantage of the fact that the Cardassians can't see everything at once, but the fact is that the Cardassians will be able to see most things most of the time and that means that the jammer network is not going to provide a strong deterrence without city-wide shields or an especially capable AA defense network.

You've mentioned before that the cardassians are a third rate power, but I'm not sure if you're treating them as a third rate power all the time when assessing what they can do.

Third rate is probably a bit harsh. Second rate is probably more accurate.

No, I meant after the dominion started blowing up thier cities from orbit at the end of the war, the cardassians might be reluctant to employ such tactics themselves, like how japan is really, really anti-nuclear after we dropped the bomb on them.

Yes, but they aren't anti-bomb. So certainly I think the Union would not be able to get away with genocide or carpet bombing a city, but they don't need to. Their weapons and technology favor precision strikes anyway.

I'm not talking about special forces, I'm talking about marines vs cardassians in the trenches fighting it out with tanks and artillery.

There aren't going to be any "trenches". The Cardassians aren't going to just roll up and engage the UNSC on their terms, just because the UNSC happens to be good at it. The Cardassians are going to pick and choose most of the engagements and they're going to pick where they're going to attack and from where.

Certainly, in some of those engagements the cardies will have orbital fire support and mostly unhindered transporters, but sometimes the UNSC will have the edge there, and most of the time I don't think anyone will.

How? We've seen that hand sensor units can track targets kilometers away. And that's not including dedicated sensor machines or satellites or fighters or shuttles.

The cardassians probably can't afford to keep a capship presence up everywhere they're attacking, they don't have enough ships left for that, defending their territory, and trying to keep the UNSC's home fleets pinned at anchor all at the same time.

Capital ships tend to present over a world getting invaded. It's a different story once the world is held of course, but that generally means that the local troops have established a base with vehicles and transporters and a sensor network.

During the dominion war, it was not at all uncommon for neither side to have starship support on hand during an invasion, for precisely those factors.

I don't think there is any proof to support that assessment. Nor would it be the only support they would have. Certainly it is possible that there are times when a ship will be absent, because it must be so--but it makes very little sense to send something as valuable as a starship away from a planetary invasion force. AR-558 is not the end-all, be-all of Trek ground engagements. Which I have to say, I have the impression that is what you go on.

We can look at the invasion of Ajilon Prime in Nor the Battle to the Strong as an example of how these ground battles actually go.

BASHIR: It's a distress call from the Federation colony on Ajilon Prime. They're under attack. The Klingons have landed troops.
JAKE: So much for the cease fire.
BASHIR: The main hospital's been damaged. They're short on doctors and running low on supplies.
JAKE: What are we waiting for? Let's go.
BASHIR: It's risky. The hospital's only fifty kilometres away from the front line.

.....

ODO: Something wrong, Captain?
SISKO: I just talked to Doctor Bashir. He's on his way to Ajilon Prime to answer a request for medical assistance.
KIRA: Jake's with him.
SISKO: According to the latest reports, Klingon ground troops have captured two settlements in the northern hemisphere.
WORF: Half the colonists are still trapped on the planet. There are no ships in the area to evacuate them.
O'BRIEN: We're three days away at best.
SISKO: The Farragut will get there the day after tomorrow. Bashir says that he and Jake will leave as soon as the relief teams are in place.

...

JAKE: Ready to beam down?
BASHIR: No, we can't leave the runabout in orbit, not with the Klingons around. Besides, the colonists moved what was left of the medical equipment underground when the hospital was destroyed and there's magnesite in the rock face. There's no way to transport through it.
JAKE: I guess we'll have to find a place to set down.
BASHIR: Looks like there's a clearing about a kilometre away from the main settlement. Jake, things could get a little rough down there. They've got a lot of wounded.
JAKE: I'll be all right.

So some basic establishing notes. First is that the battle seems to encompass the northern hemisphere, where the Klingons have already captured two settlements. The hospital is about 50 km from the fighting and it was damaged and eventually the colonists had to move the medical equipment and personnel below ground. Bashir also indicated that they couldn't just leave the runabout in orbit and instead decided to land it to within a kilometer of the of the main settlement.

Immediately Starfleet sends the Farragut to provide relief for the colony. As we'd later see, it was intercepted by the Klingons and Sisko would later take the Defiant.

DAX: We just got word. The Klingons have destroyed the Farragut near the Lembatta cluster.
ODO: What about Ajilon Prime? Without reinforcements
SISKO: Dax, you're with me. We'll leave as soon as the Defiant is ready.

...

KIRBY: Don't worry about it. Same thing happened to me my first day. You know what I heard? That ship Starfleet sent, the Farragut? The Klingons intercepted it.
JAKE: Starfleet'll send another one, won't they?
KIRBY: It won't be here for days, and in the meantime we're looking at a ground war which is just what the Klingons want. According to a lieutenant I talked to, they've got so many transport scramblers online that we can't beam troops anywhere.
JAKE: What about using hoppers?
KIRBY: He says the Klingons have been shooting them out of the sky left and right. Unless something changes, he figures the Klingons'll take the settlement the day after tomorrow. Did you see all the bat'leth wounds today? Klingons get mad, they forget about their disruptors, go hand to hand. If you ask me, they're looking to get even for what happened on Ganalda Four.

With the Farragut intercepted, the Klingons are apparently pushing forward with a ground war. They used so many transporter scramblers that the UFP can't beam its troops anywhere and any hoppers they put int he sky was getting shot down left and right. They're estimated to take the settlement in about two days.

BURKE: It's just you and me then. What are you doing out here? Why'd you leave the settlement?
JAKE: I was outside when the shelling started. I guess I got lost looking for cover.
BURKE: Lucky me. I could use the company. Here. Water.

...

BURKE: You didn't see a crashed hopper around here, did you?
JAKE: No.
BURKE: They made it!
JAKE: Who?
BURKE: My platoon. The Klingons had us pinned down. We couldn't beam out because they had a transport scrambler running. We called for a hopper. As soon as it set down, the Klingons came after us. CO ordered me and Brice to lay down cover so the squad could get up the ramp. By the time Brice got in, the Klingons were practically on top of us. The hopper was taking such a pounding, I didn't think it would make it off the ground.

...

JAKE: But I have to. That way this'll all make sense. Maybe I ran for a reason, so I could find you and save your life.
BURKE: Ran?
JAKE: From the explosions. We had to get to the runabout for the generator, and the shelling started and I couldn't see Doctor Bashir and the explosions, they kept getting closer. I had to get out of there, so I ran. I ran and I kept running until I found you.

...

JAKE: I got knocked out when we were trying to get to the runabout. Did Doctor Bashir make it back all right?
KIRBY: He's in IC for the night. He's got plasma burns on his arm and shoulder. I don't know how he managed, but he carried the generator back here by himself. We went looking for you right after the shelling stopped. There was hardly anything left of the runabout. The whole place was nothing but bomb craters and smoke. We had pretty much given up hope.

...

ENSIGN: You know, on a mining team. They're the ones who split the asteroids up with phasers so the excavators can get at what's inside. You've got to have good aim. No matter what else you can say about me, you can't say that I don't have good aim. If I hadn't hit my foot just right, I would've taken my whole leg off. It's funny. One minute your life's moving along just like you always thought it would, and the next you do something that changes everything, that makes you realise you're not who you thought you were. At the Academy, I did really well in the battle simulations. I never had any problems. But when you're out there and the live shells are detonating all around you, it's a whole different thing.
JAKE: All you can think about is getting away from the explosions.

...

KALANDRA: Everybody listen. Listen! We're evacuating. We're taking the patients out through the north tunnel to the surface. A hopper will take us down the peninsula to the base at Tananda Bay.
KIRBY: That tunnel is almost two kilometres long. We have over seventy patients to move. Do you know how long that's going to take?
KALANDRA: Resource is sending a security detail to defend the hospital and give us time to evacuate. We can do this.

The Klingon artillery at minimum destroyed a runabout and left holes and craters. So much so that they had given up on any hopes of finding Jake--seemingly dead or alive. The ensign who shot his own foot also confirms that these are live shells detonating.

Then of course, when the hospital is evacuated, they need to take 70 people, plus personnel with them. That's probably at least 80 and probably suggests that a Hopper can hold at around a hundred people. Said hopper was then going to take them south of the peninsula to the base at Tananda Bay.

I imagine a lot of orbital support is just going to be a handful of ships at most, and they'll be constantly at threat from being picked off by the other side's navy during an engagement (the cardassians might have the worse end of this, since it's generally harder to warp thier ships into a solar system to attack a UNSC force, while the UNSC can drop ships out of slipspace right on top of them with virtually no warning).

If there is a lack of orbital support, it would probably be due to the fact that the Cardassians had already managed to establish a ground base to support their troops.

I think trek consistently overstates the effectiveness of biological weaponry by a fair margin, and even if might turn the war into a MAD situation it's still probably the UNSC's best shot.

No, it most certainly would not. And it would likely harden the Union, not put them at a disadvantage where they feel they must talk. I think you are trying to use what would have worked on the Covenant and applying it to the UNSC.