The Bolsheviks reject Brest-Litovsk

[WolfBear]

What if, in spite of Lenin's urges, he simply isn't able to get the Bolsheviks to accept the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, not even while the Germans are advancing deep inside of Russia? What would the subsequent effects of this have been? Would the Germans try setting up their own puppet government in Russia? Would they succeed? Would this puppet government actually survive the end of World War I, once Germany is defeated? And who and what would replace it? The Bolsheviks or someone more moderate? Would the Bolsheviks become interested in power-sharing if the Germans are occupying most or all of European Russia? Or would they still insist on holding onto totalitarian power for themselves?

I also wonder if another way to make this scenario work would be for Lenin to simply die in, say, January 1918 or whenever. What do you think?

 

[stevep]

What if, in spite of Lenin's urges, he simply isn't able to get the Bolsheviks to accept the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, not even while the Germans are advancing deep inside of Russia? What would the subsequent effects of this have been? Would the Germans try setting up their own puppet government in Russia? Would they succeed? Would this puppet government actually survive the end of World War I, once Germany is defeated? And who and what would replace it? The Bolsheviks or someone more moderate? Would the Bolsheviks become interested in power-sharing if the Germans are occupying most or all of European Russia? Or would they still insist on holding onto totalitarian power for themselves?

I also wonder if another way to make this scenario work would be for Lenin to simply die in, say, January 1918 or whenever. What do you think?

Well I don't know if Germany could occupy enough of Russia to remove the Bolsheviks totally from power as they could simply retreat further east but the loss of further extensive territories, especially if the Germans could capture it would seriously undermine their position. However that would be a huge strain on German forces and would further delay them getting the eastern front freed up so they could possibly try an attack before the western powers get too strong. Then it would be a case of could the Germans find any reliable puppets with serious influence to be their new 'Russian' government and how much support would such a state continue to require?

I suspect unless the Bolsheviks collapsed totally - and even then there would be other opponents to the German client rulers I suspect the latter wouldn't long survive the fall of Germany. Unless they were palatable enough to the allies to be more favourable to the allies that say a surviving Bolshevik regime. Even then they would be viewed by many inside Russia and abroad as collaborators which is never a good position to be in.

Lenin dying, possibly say from an accident or an assassination is quite possible. Which could start off quite an infighting session for power within the party.

 

[WolfBear]

Well I don't know if Germany could occupy enough of Russia to remove the Bolsheviks totally from power as they could simply retreat further east but the loss of further extensive territories, especially if the Germans could capture it would seriously undermine their position. However that would be a huge strain on German forces and would further delay them getting the eastern front freed up so they could possibly try an attack before the western powers get too strong. Then it would be a case of could the Germans find any reliable puppets with serious influence to be their new 'Russian' government and how much support would such a state continue to require?

I suspect unless the Bolsheviks collapsed totally - and even then there would be other opponents to the German client rulers I suspect the latter wouldn't long survive the fall of Germany. Unless they were palatable enough to the allies to be more favourable to the allies that say a surviving Bolshevik regime. Even then they would be viewed by many inside Russia and abroad as collaborators which is never a good position to be in.

Lenin dying, possibly say from an accident or an assassination is quite possible. Which could start off quite an infighting session for power within the party.

Do you think that the Bolsheviks would agree to form a coalition government in Siberia or wherever their government will relocate to after a German occupation of Moscow and St. Petersburg or do you think that they will still insist on holding onto total power for themselves?

 

[stevep]

Do you think that the Bolsheviks would agree to form a coalition government in Siberia or wherever their government will relocate to after a German occupation of Moscow and St. Petersburg or do you think that they will still insist on holding onto total power for themselves?

They might 'agree' to some co-operation with other radical left groups such as the Social Revolutionaries or Menshiviks but unless their desperate - or just possibly at least Lenin and possibly others have been removed - that I suspect would be in name only. At least once they sense victory.

Doubt it would be in Siberia as that seemed to come fairly securely under White hands but possibly somewhere on the Volga say?