Israel 🇮🇱 State of Israel Thread

[GoldRanger]

Who do you think will replace Abbas once he croaks? I suspect that it won't be Marwan Barghouti since he's still stuck in prison.

Not familiar enough with Palestinian politics to make a plausible guess. The real danger is Hamas taking over, like they did in Gaza. They are more popular than Fatah (as they usually are).

Also, what about having Israel do a unilateral withdrawal from most of the West Bank similar to what Ehud Olmert suggested back in 2006? I mean if Israel's parliament will ever become more left-wing.

Never going to happen, I'd say. The last unilateral withdrawal turned out to be a disastrous decision. The West Bank is much more strategic and sensitive than Gaza, and has some major Jewish religious sites to boot. Can't see any scenario of an unilateral withdrawal under any plausible government.

 

[WolfBear]

Not familiar enough with Palestinian politics to make a plausible guess. The real danger is Hamas taking over, like they did in Gaza. They are more popular than Fatah (as they usually are).



Never going to happen, I'd say. The last unilateral withdrawal turned out to be a disastrous decision. The West Bank is much more strategic and sensitive than Gaza, and has some major Jewish religious sites to boot. Can't see any scenario of an unilateral withdrawal under any plausible government.

So, Israel is stuck in a dilemma. On the one hand, it gets accused by liberals of being an apartheid state, but on the other hand, it fears that withdrawing from most of the West Bank would endanger its security.

I wish that at the very least something similar to the Mofaz Plan could be implemented:

http://fmep.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/is_v20n3_map_mofaz_plan.jpg

BTW, why has Israel never had a non-Ashkenazi PM yet? Shaul Mofaz came very close back in 2008, but he lost to Tzipi Livni, who in turn proceeded to fail to build a governing coalition.

 

[WolfBear]

I like this suggestion, BTW:

Unite Jordan and Palestine—Again

Amman should reannex the West Bank to end Israel’s illegal occupation, bring peace and prosperity, and give Palestinians democratic rights.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[GoldRanger]

So, Israel is stuck in a dilemma. On the one hand, it gets accused by liberals of being an apartheid state, but on the other hand, it fears that withdrawing from most of the West Bank would endanger its security.

It's been stuck in this dilemma for a long time now, it's become pretty good at walking that knife's edge.

I wish that at the very least something similar to the Mofaz Plan could be implemented:

http://fmep.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/is_v20n3_map_mofaz_plan.jpg

Not a chance. Even with the tiny Israeli enclaves in that proposal, one could literally walk from the sea to the border with Palestine in a couple of hours at the narrowest point, and that narrow waist would be located exactly where most of Israel's population, industry and financial institutions are. There's "indefensible" borders, and there's "begging to be bisected on the first day of a potential war breaking out" borders. It's just not something Israel could ever live with.

I think Trump's plan with some further mild concessions and some further land swaps are the most extreme Israel can agree to.

BTW, why has Israel never had a non-Ashkenazi PM yet? Shaul Mofaz came very close back in 2008, but he lost to Tzipi Livni, who in turn proceeded to fail to build a governing coalition.

Nope. There was a Mizrahi president, but he was jailed for rape and didn't finish his term.

Why? Most of the social elite are Ashkenazi, just like most of the social elite in America is white. It's slowly changing though. Give it time.

I like this suggestion, BTW:

Unite Jordan and Palestine—Again

Amman should reannex the West Bank to end Israel’s illegal occupation, bring peace and prosperity, and give Palestinians democratic rights.

foreignpolicy.com

This doesn't solve the narrow borders issue, and Jordan is hardly the most trustworthy of nations. Jordan's population is among the more hostile to Israel according to polls.

 

[WolfBear]

It's been stuck in this dilemma for a long time now, it's become pretty good at walking that knife's edge.



Not a chance. Even with the tiny Israeli enclaves in that proposal, one could literally walk from the sea to the border with Palestine in a couple of hours at the narrowest point, and that narrow waist would be located exactly where most of Israel's population, industry and financial institutions are. There's "indefensible" borders, and there's "begging to be bisected on the first day of a potential war breaking out" borders. It's just not something Israel could ever live with.

I think Trump's plan with some further mild concessions and some further land swaps are the most extreme Israel can agree to.



Nope. There was a Mizrahi president, but he was jailed for rape and didn't finish his term.

Why? Most of the social elite are Ashkenazi, just like most of the social elite in America is white.


This doesn't solve the narrow borders issue, and Jordan is hardly the most trustworthy of nations. Jordan's population is among the more hostile to Israel according to polls.

I said Mizrahi PM, not Mizrahi President. I know about Moshe Katsav, aka Musa Qasab.

Fair enough about the social elite explanation. But still, in the US, there's been a huge push to promote competent people of color in politics, business, et cetera, often through affirmative action of some sort (such as Joe Biden's promises to appoint a woman VP and a black woman to SCOTUS). Has anything comparable ever happened in Israel?

The Trump Plan divides the Palestinian state into Swiss cheese:

Bantustans, if you will.

 

[GoldRanger]

I said Mizrahi PM, not Mizrahi President. I know about Moshe Katsav, aka Musa Qasab.

Fair enough about the social elite explanation. But still, in the US, there's been a huge push to promote competent people of color in politics, business, et cetera, often through affirmative action of some sort (such as Joe Biden's promises to appoint a woman VP and a black woman to SCOTUS). Has anything comparable ever happened in Israel?

There's talk about it sometimes in the media, but it's not even making the top 50 issues that are important to the Israeli public. Security, the economy, foreign relations, welfare (the exact order of importance changes from election to election), but skin color or origin is not something that the Israeli public pays much attention to, as long as the PM is Jewish.

The Trump Plan divides the Palestinian state into Swiss cheese:

Yep. That's what happens when you lose multiple wars, you don't get to decide your own borders.

Bantustans, if you will.

Demagoguery. A fragmented border doesn't automatically make a country a Bantustan.

 

[WolfBear]

There's talk about it sometimes in the media, but it's not even making the top 50 issues that are important to the Israeli public. Security, the economy, foreign relations, welfare (the exact order of importance changes from election to election), but skin color or origin is not something that the Israeli public pays much attention to, as long as the PM is Jewish.



Yep. That's what happens when you lose multiple wars, you don't get to decide your own borders.



Demagoguery. A fragmented border doesn't automatically make a country a Bantustan.

Would Israelis be willing to accept someone with a Jewish father and who did not convert to Judaism as their PM?

So, what does make a country a Bantustan?

 

[GoldRanger]

Would Israelis be willing to accept someone with a Jewish father and who did not convert to Judaism as their PM?

Doubtful, although such a person could be a pretty successful leader of a left-wing party, since leftists in general care much less about Jewish ancestry, or define it in a broader way. But I don't think he'll ever have the votes to be PM (on the other hand, technically Bennet didn't either, so who knows).

So, what does make a country a Bantustan?

A puppet government, for one.

 

[WolfBear]

Doubtful, although such a person could be a pretty successful leader of a left-wing party, since leftists in general care much less about Jewish ancestry, or define it in a broader way. But I don't think he'll ever have the votes to be PM (on the other hand, technically Bennet didn't either, so who knows).



A puppet government, for one.

But someone with a Jewish mother is fair game for PM even if they have a non-Jewish father, right? Or if they have a Jewish mother who had a non-Orthodox conversion to Judaism along with a non-Jewish father (their mother's second husband, for instance)?

Many Palestinians presumably view Mahmoud Abbas as an Israeli puppet, so ...

 

[GoldRanger]

But someone with a Jewish mother is fair game for PM even if they have a non-Jewish father, right? Or if they have a Jewish mother who had a non-Orthodox conversion to Judaism along with a non-Jewish father (their mother's second husband, for instance)?

I think so. I guess that with any case where the "Jewishness" of a candidate is in question, the opposition will do it's best to put a spotlight on it. Remember Obama's alleged birth certificate shenanigans?

Many Palestinians presumably view Mahmoud Abbas as an Israeli puppet, so ...

While Abbas is in many senses cooperative with Israel (such as policing Palestinian territory to help curtail terror attacks), in others he makes it very clear that he's no Israeli puppet. Even leaving his frequent anti-Israeli rhetoric aside, the Palestinian Authority Martyr's Fund is a thing, for example.

 

[WolfBear]

While Abbas is in many senses cooperative with Israel (such as policing Palestinian territory to help curtail terror attacks), in others he makes it very clear that he's no Israeli puppet. Even leaving his frequent anti-Israeli rhetoric aside, the Palestinian Authority Martyr's Fund is a thing, for example.

Yeah, that's certainly fair enough. Though to be fair, a cynic could say that he can't appear to look like a total Israeli puppet or else his own people could turn on him.

 

[GoldRanger]

Yeah, that's certainly fair enough. Though to be fair, a cynic could say that he can't appear to look like a total Israeli puppet or else his own people could turn on him.

Look, he's either secretly an Israeli puppet, or he's not, he certainly doesn't appear to be IMO, but we could speculate on "what if's" until we're blue in the face, it won't lead us anywhere.

If he is an Israeli puppet, a Palestine under Trump's borders becomes closer to a Bantustan, although I'm not sure if even then it's quite enough. It'll be something in between a Bantustan and a full country - no military, no control over airspace and no control over borders, but an independent government, independent foreign relations, independent financial institutions, independent passport, independent foreign and domestic policy, independent trade relations with foreign countries, and Israel would be obligated to respect their territorial integrity in times of peace (although that may become problematic and unenforceable if terror or rocket attacks will be based in Palestine).

In time after they prove themselves this may change, but as things stand Israel has no incentive to give them a border a walking distance from Tel Aviv and a completely free hand. Even with the current situation where Israel has a lot of control the Palestinians still manage to carry out murderous terror attacks, giving them even MORE power would be an indescribably stupid move.

 

[WolfBear]

Look, he's either secretly an Israeli puppet, or he's not, he certainly doesn't appear to be IMO, but we could speculate on "what if's" until we're blue in the face, it won't lead us anywhere.

If he is an Israeli puppet, a Palestine under Trump's borders becomes closer to a Bantustan, although I'm not sure if even then it's quite enough. It'll be something in between a Bantustan and a full country - no military, no control over airspace and no control over borders, but an independent government, independent foreign relations, independent financial institutions, independent passport, independent foreign and domestic policy, independent trade relations with foreign countries, and Israel would be obligated to respect their territorial integrity in times of peace (although that may become problematic and unenforceable if terror or rocket attacks will be based in Palestine).

In time after they prove themselves this may change, but as things stand Israel has no incentive to give them a border a walking distance from Tel Aviv and a completely free hand. Even with the current situation where Israel has a lot of control the Palestinians still manage to carry out murderous terror attacks, giving them even MORE power would be an indescribably stupid move.

Even with the Trump Plan, the Palestinians are still going to have a border within walking distance of Tel Aviv, so this won't actually change anything in regards to this. It will give Israel a more secure border against Jordan, though, which could help if Jordan will ever once again become hostile towards Israel.

 

[GoldRanger]

Even with the Trump Plan, the Palestinians are still going to have a border within walking distance of Tel Aviv, so this won't actually change anything in regards to this. It will give Israel a more secure border against Jordan, though, which could help if Jordan will ever once again become hostile towards Israel.

It does give Israel a much more robust presence in the area (in the "cracks" in between the border) which would help intercept any attacks, plus an integral part of the plan was Palestinian demilitarization.

 

[WolfBear]

It does give Israel a much more robust presence in the area (in the "cracks" in between the border) which would help intercept any attacks, plus an integral part of the plan was Palestinian demilitarization.

Interesting analysis.

Anyway, do you think that Israelis would be willing to give up the Arab parts of East Jerusalem? Few Israeli Jews go there anyway and there isn't much of value there outside of the Old City and perhaps the US consulate in that area.

 

[GoldRanger]

Interesting analysis.

Anyway, do you think that Israelis would be willing to give up the Arab parts of East Jerusalem? Few Israeli Jews go there anyway and there isn't much of value there outside of the Old City and perhaps the US consulate in that area.

The left wing yes, the right wing no. It has also the Jewish quarter which was ethnically cleansed of Jewish presence in 1948. Overall there needs to be a serious and unlikely change for that to be possible.

 

[WolfBear]

The left wing yes, the right wing no. It has also the Jewish quarter which was ethnically cleansed of Jewish presence in 1948. Overall there needs to be a serious and unlikely change for that to be possible.

Where's the Jewish quarter in East Jerusalem?

Also, a question for you: If it's perfectly legitimate for Israel to restrict non-Jewish immigration (even that of non-Muslims) for fear that this immigration will threaten Israel's Jewish character, why wouldn't it likewise be perfectly acceptable for Israel to criminalize speech that threatens Israel's Jewish character? For instance, speech that encourages Israeli Jews to engage in apostasy and to join other religions? Or speech in favor of allowing mass non-Jewish immigraiton into Israel? Is it because such speech is much less likely to result in bad outcomes than open immigration policies, or what?

 

[LordsFire]

Where's the Jewish quarter in East Jerusalem?

Also, a question for you: If it's perfectly legitimate for Israel to restrict non-Jewish immigration (even that of non-Muslims) for fear that this immigration will threaten Israel's Jewish character, why wouldn't it likewise be perfectly acceptable for Israel to criminalize speech that threatens Israel's Jewish character? For instance, speech that encourages Israeli Jews to engage in apostasy and to join other religions? Or speech in favor of allowing mass non-Jewish immigraiton into Israel? Is it because such speech is much less likely to result in bad outcomes than open immigration policies, or what?

Because free speech is a fundamental right, entering another nation is not.

 

[GoldRanger]

Where's the Jewish quarter in East Jerusalem?

My mistake, it's in the old city.

 

[Bear Ribs]

One of the issues with Israel giving up part of Jerusalem is that they have very little reason to think that any area they give up won't have mortars and missile launchers planted on it an hour later, and they don't want the rest of Jerusalem under fire at point-blank range.

If it's been a decade since the last mortar/rocket/missile attack on Israel, then they can start talking about handing over land so close to major population and religious centers. Actually, my general feeling is that this would be a better path to peace than the usual insta-broken treaties. Rather than "We pinkie-promise not to shoot rockets anymore if you give us all this land" reverse things and have Israel promise to give them the land if Palestine can go twenty years without a major terror attack*.

*Not going to bother defining this for space and time, presume it's many pages of lawyerese and covers actual major military operations like rockets, bombs, and the like while not causing the whole thing to fall apart from a single rogue gunman exercising a heckler's veto.