Sino Soviet war goes nuclear
- Thread starter Cherico
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PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
Given that Chinese nuclear arsenal was just big enough to piss off the Soviets, they would come much worse from the exchange. However the Soviets really don't have the manpower to occupy the China, so perhaps occupation of Xinjiang and puppet government in Manchuria. The capacity of the surviving CCP leadership to rule the country would be severely diminished, Kuomintang would surely try to use this upheaval to try and return to the mainland.
Vietnam war would go differently, as USSR will not be able to support the North Vietnam due to hostile China in between, so low level guerrilla war instead of large scale battles, absolutely no 1972 offensive.
USSR would be somewhat damaged and under strain from commitment to China, possibly scaling down it's involvements around the world.
Vietnam war would go differently, as USSR will not be able to support the North Vietnam due to hostile China in between, so low level guerrilla war instead of large scale battles, absolutely no 1972 offensive.
USSR would be somewhat damaged and under strain from commitment to China, possibly scaling down it's involvements around the world.
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Circle of Willis
Well-known member
Agreed, this POD seems like it'd be a godsend for the capitalist nations and downright win them the Cold War a few decades early. South Vietnam would survive and Pol Pot would never gain power, ditto for the Pathet Lao. Communism would also be irrevocably reviled (even more) worldwide, on account of its two biggest hitters having just gone up in nuclear fire - I'd imagine a tankie/non-tankie (nukie?) split would be the case across the globe, and the Soviets would have a harder time finding collaborators in the Third World too (some people might still be insane and/or power-hungry enough to go for it, but a lot of people would be turned off at the thought of working with '''''anti-imperialists''''' who have just shown that they're willing to straight up go nuclear against one of their own).
Ironically and unfortunately, the USSR nuking Red China will probably turn Mao into even more of a whitewashed hero for the American New Left (which leaned more toward Maoism than Soviet M-Lism, sometimes much more - ex. the Black Panthers) even though this has happened after the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution, as this will have shown even to the most willfully blind that the Soviets were willing to do to China what America hadn't (and ultimately never would do) to Vietnam, almost certainly with far less justification than the atomic bombing of Japan. I'd imagine some variant of Third Worldism would become very popular among them & other members of the global left who still identify as some kind of Communist in short order.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
Red Dawn doesn't get made because USSR is weaker and thus fear of their invasion is not as pervasive?
Just like @PsihoKekec said,with addition of China state turning into warlords states ,and Africa free from commies/no money for that/.If USA stop helping soviet economy,it would fall before 1990.Maybe 1980? good for all conqered european states.
One down-side to this in the west is that the nuclear disarmers are likely to be a lot more active and gather far more support.
Fortunately I doubt they will have the infleunce to make either Britain or France give up their nukes, especially since the more far sighted will see the dangers of that in what's likely to be a distinctly unstable world.In broader culture your likely as well to see something of a greater hostility towards modern technology.
You will still get a number of socialist and probably a few clearly communist states in Africa. Some were in place already and their claims for universiality and hostility toward the west as the former colonizers will continue to make them attractive. Especially while the Portuguese empire and Rhodesia survive, in the states bordering them. Most other African states I fear will also end up as OTL as brutal dictatorships.
A lot will depend on the circumstances as to what happens to the USSR. It will be materially weakened, especially with possible following spread of fall-out and other problems from the widespread use of nukes. Not to mention serious overstretch if it seeks to exert power in core parts of the former Chinese state - would definitely include Manchuria here. As such it is likely to fall quicker than OTL, unless the crisis of the war enables some form of reform but that seems unlikely. However there's no way of knowing it will die as quietly as OTL or whether some idiot decides to pull down the entire world when he realises its fall can no longer be avoided.
One other thing that hasn't been mentioned so far is the impact on the eastern tigers, i.e. Japan, S Korea and Taiwan. Even if Mao doesn't try and nuke the latter when he realises his empire is going down all three - along with N Korea - will suffer a hell of a lot from fallout and possibly refugees and disorder on their borders. Depending on the level of the exchange there could well be problems further south as well while not sure whether much fall-out will carry across the Pacific to the Americas or even worldwide.
As such the world might be economically/technologically dominated by the European/N America states somewhat longer than OTL. Whether the impact will prevent or simply delay the rise of the Japan to 2nd power status and world leader in tech I don't know.
With China gone and provided there's not too much impact on it India could be a gainer as it no longer has to look nervously to its north while Pakistan has lost its biggest support at the time. This might mean that assuming the Bangladesh war happens similarly to OTL would India seek possibly some permanent territorial gains from the rump Pakistan?
Not sure how the ME would change as the assorted Arab powers might either look toward the Soviets more or turn earlier to winning over the US. If the former what happens if the 1973 Yom Kippur War still occurs.
Also in the non-democratic world and possibly with some democratic states, most likely India I would think, you could see a greater rush for nuclear weapons.
Forgetting the other issue of what state is China in and how does the rest of the world respond? As well as the Soviets trying to get influence there the west [ aka US] might try to, either off it own bat or being pulled in by a Taiwan that hasn't been nuked seeking to regain the mainland. Also some sort of intervention is likely both on humanitarian grounds, to prevent others gaining too much influence and also perhaps to locate any remaining Chinese nukes before either some nutter fires one at somewhere or they fall into criminal/terrorist hands.
Steve
As such the world might be economically/technologically dominated by the European/N America states somewhat longer than OTL. Whether the impact will prevent or simply delay the rise of the Japan to 2nd power status and world leader in tech I don't know.
With China gone and provided there's not too much impact on it India could be a gainer as it no longer has to look nervously to its north while Pakistan has lost its biggest support at the time. This might mean that assuming the Bangladesh war happens similarly to OTL would India seek possibly some permanent territorial gains from the rump Pakistan?
Not sure how the ME would change as the assorted Arab powers might either look toward the Soviets more or turn earlier to winning over the US. If the former what happens if the 1973 Yom Kippur War still occurs.
Also in the non-democratic world and possibly with some democratic states, most likely India I would think, you could see a greater rush for nuclear weapons.
Forgetting the other issue of what state is China in and how does the rest of the world respond? As well as the Soviets trying to get influence there the west [ aka US] might try to, either off it own bat or being pulled in by a Taiwan that hasn't been nuked seeking to regain the mainland. Also some sort of intervention is likely both on humanitarian grounds, to prevent others gaining too much influence and also perhaps to locate any remaining Chinese nukes before either some nutter fires one at somewhere or they fall into criminal/terrorist hands.
Steve
While you might see more of a push for anti-nukes in the west, the mere fact that more nukes had been used in anger by countries other than the United States is going to prevent them from getting ANY political clout. The risk of disarmament becomes to high as while in the OTL the disarmament people had a point in that both sides were, in effect, making weapons because they were scared of the other side, but neither side really wanted to USE them, now the Soviet Union and China have shown they are both willing and ABLE to use them against supposed ideological allies (which means how much more willing would they be willing to use them against ideological enemies). As such, no western country would be willing to give up their weapons, they need them in case the USSR gets stupid.
It also risks normalizing nuclear weapons in normal military conflict between nuclear powers. While I doubt the US or west would really change their nuclear doctrine much, officially, you'd probably see them draw up potential first use cases especially when dealing with the Soviet Union and the remains of Maoist China. After all, better to use them first over having your own forces nuked...
It also risks normalizing nuclear weapons in normal military conflict between nuclear powers. While I doubt the US or west would really change their nuclear doctrine much, officially, you'd probably see them draw up potential first use cases especially when dealing with the Soviet Union and the remains of Maoist China. After all, better to use them first over having your own forces nuked...
I agree, I can't see any of the three western powers with nukes giving them up but I think the appeasers and unilateralism - or the genocide movement as I have called them in the past
- would get more support and their not exactly vulnerable to reason or logic so I would expect a lot more opposition, especially I fear in the UK with the CND [Campaign for Nuclear Destruction] movement.AspblastUSA
Well-known member
Naturally the PRC isn't surviving this intact due to the nuclear disparity but how badly maimed the USSR is depends primarily on who shot first, as it were. While OTL the war was small enough that both sides claimed to be the attacked party, the only way the war gets hot enough to go nuclear would be if the PRC committed to a major invasion of the Soviet Far East. In such a scenario, and if the Soviets took the second-strike, they could likely avoid much (though nowhere near all) of the political fallout by claiming to be the victims of unwarranted Chinese aggression, who regretfully but necessarily responded in kind and put down the national equivalent of a mad dog.
OTOH if the Soviets revert to nuclear warfare first they will have a much harder time of it. It's not impossible that they could convince people at large it was a justified escalation of the war (the USA has more or less managed to avoid being called out for nuking Japan twice after all) but it would be a much harder sell, and they may well have to concede to allowing Taiwan control over part of the mainland or similar concessions to try and present themselves as reasonable liberators rather than bloody-handed conquerors.
OTOH if the Soviets revert to nuclear warfare first they will have a much harder time of it. It's not impossible that they could convince people at large it was a justified escalation of the war (the USA has more or less managed to avoid being called out for nuking Japan twice after all) but it would be a much harder sell, and they may well have to concede to allowing Taiwan control over part of the mainland or similar concessions to try and present themselves as reasonable liberators rather than bloody-handed conquerors.
Cuba might actually see a Bay Of Pigs with full on military support. I don't think Castro's regime survives in this environment b/c Russian backing would be severely curtailed.
Taiwan will likely be heavily reinforced with US naval power and aid to keep humanitarian spillover manageable and make sure thos Krazy Russians dont get any other ideas. Plus, it allows easy access to support Taiwanese ventures in Mainland China.
I think Russia effectively wins, but neuters their long term goals with the Commintern movement. Vastly fewer Americans will willingly support the Communukers. I can also see a reinvigorated McCarthyism movement in the US and possibly the other Western powers.
SE Asia sees most of the Communist support they received sucked up by Russian action in China. Vietnam and Laos likely don't become Communist.
NATO gets a HUGE kick in the pants for funding and the Star Wars program comes roaring into existence.
Taiwan will likely be heavily reinforced with US naval power and aid to keep humanitarian spillover manageable and make sure thos Krazy Russians dont get any other ideas. Plus, it allows easy access to support Taiwanese ventures in Mainland China.
I think Russia effectively wins, but neuters their long term goals with the Commintern movement. Vastly fewer Americans will willingly support the Communukers. I can also see a reinvigorated McCarthyism movement in the US and possibly the other Western powers.
SE Asia sees most of the Communist support they received sucked up by Russian action in China. Vietnam and Laos likely don't become Communist.
NATO gets a HUGE kick in the pants for funding and the Star Wars program comes roaring into existence.
And if USA simply decide stop leaking technology to soviets/truck manufactures was made after 1970 using american technology/,soviets could fall for economical reasons about 1980.
IF it takes that long....it really depends on what parts of USSR get nuked. I mean...central production facilities or other key points of infrastructure get wasted...I don't know that they get support from outside to get that fixed. Not without some very heavy cost.
Frankly, that end of this spectrum is key...because the USSR could collapse shortly after depending upon the fallout, both literal and metaphorical.
But Ethiopia would survive,becouse commie coup was possible there only becouse soviet have a lot of resources.At least million people would live longer,and Africa would have monarchy as role model,not only commies or dictators.
And monarchy is always at least as good as dictatorship,usually better.
Iran would still fall,but maybe there would be less bloody Iraq-Iran war.Hussain was supported both by USA and soviets,now only USA support would remain.
And maybe Taiwan manage to libearate at least part of China.
Not necessarily regarding Ethiopia as the appaling mismanagement of the old imperial regime caused massive resentment. True the communist dictatorship that followed was ever more brutal but when people are desperate they will risk a new disaster rather than the current one their sure of being bad.
Iran may fall to a religious dictatorship but too many butterflies with such a huge POD to know. If so and Iraq is in a similar position I wouldn't put it past Saddam to attack as OTL since he didn't exactly get a slap on the wrist for his actions from the west.
Depending on the mess in China and neighbouring areas but Taiwan may manage to extend some control over part of the mainland. However its still pretty dictatorial itself at this stage and China is in such a condition that the population isn't likely to favour new rulers unless their able and willing to make things better for them. If the intent is to come in and simply take over control for the newcomers then its not going to go down well. All depends on the circumstances as to how things develop.
The former Ethiopian regiem successfully kicked Italy's ass a country that was fully industrialised, at the end of the second world war it stood at the winners table and gained more land. Finally getting the country access to the sea. I get that things were a little rough after the Italians fucked shit up but the country was on an upward motion and then the commies fucked all of that up including losing their sea access. Helping to create one of the worst countries in the world.
PsihoKekec
Swashbuckling Accountant
It wasn't, it was in crisis for years, that is why the Derg were able to take power and murder the royal family without much opposition. Of course they in turn made all the problems much worse.