Sino-Indian War of 2020! (or the Brawl in the Nathu La!)

[Tryglaw]

not enough oil to supply all their needs, yes Russia would make a killing and the oil would help bejing but its not enough to cover the needs of a billion plus people all over the country.

In case of Gulf sources not available for China, China can send their tanker fleet to Russian gas and oil terminals in the Far East and the Arctic / Northern Russia. Russian exports aren't just via pipelines you know...

It's a matter of Chinese tankers "filling up" at a different spot, and India, capacity to hit aside, would not dare to hit Russian infrastructure...

Sure, there would be challenges and stoppages, but between pipelines, tanker fleets and even railway cisterns you can push a surprising amount of fuel.

(Btw. I used to work in fuel-related business as senior exec for a while, though I was moving money mostly...)

 

[Cherico]

In case of Gulf sources not available for China, China can send their tanker fleet to Russian gas and oil terminals in the Far East and the Arctic / Northern Russia. Russian exports aren't just via pipelines you know...

I'm not saying they cant do that I'm saying that Russia quite simply put doesn't have enough oil production period to meet the needs of the whole of china. Its not just keeping the cars going, its not just keeping the lights on, Chinese farming uses more imputs then American and European farming because of soil issues and other problems, and dispite all of the effort china puts into these farms the country still cant feed itself.

Then you get into the fact that Russian oil has to deal with cold snaps that play havok with drilling and a whole bunch of other issues and its just that they don't have enough supply to do it.

 

[Tryglaw]

I'm not saying they cant do that I'm saying that Russia quite simply put doesn't have enough oil production period to meet the needs of the whole of china. Its not just keeping the cars going, its not just keeping the lights on, Chinese farming uses more imputs then American and European farming because of soil issues and other problems, and dispite all of the effort china puts into these farms the country still cant feed itself.

Then you get into the fact that Russian oil has to deal with cold snaps that play havok with drilling and a whole bunch of other issues and its just that they don't have enough supply to do it.

1. Check my edit please.

2. If Gulf oil / gas isn't going to China, then it's going somewhere else. Most likely Europe (with a side of killing US shale) at firesale prices, since it's the other big market that can take the quantities in question, pushing Russian oil out. Storage capacity is limited after all.
Leading to 3:

3. "Standing" contacts and rollovers aside, Gulf oil / gas at the cheap will most likely dominate the EU spot market. Meaning less sales for Russian stuff, meaning more stuff can be sold to China. Pipeline capacity is fixed, but Russia (never mind China) owns a crapload of railway rolling stock for transportation of petrochemicals, plus you've got tankers that need to ship stuff to pay for themselves. Even if the US Navy doesn't close the Gulf (which screws over India as well since they can't cover their needs from domestic sources and are buying from Arabs and Iran alike) sailing through there may be vetoed by insurance companies. Meaning tankers that can't sail the Gulf must go somewhere else. Venezuela might be a destination if Chinese refineries can be reset to process their crude, but Russia is both literally over the border and now has a lot of spare capacity to sell. Plus if we're looking at such a situation, you can expect another pipeline or three to be approved at record pace.

4. For domestic energy needs, China uses nuclear / coal / renewable, they are also *really big* on electric vehicles, from scooters to cars. (IIRC electric car plates are free, while internal combustion ones are really expensive).

 

[Arch Dornan]

India captures Chinese camp in disputed Ladakh as violence erupts again between superpowers

On Saturday evening, around 500 Chinese troops had tried to cross into Indian territory near the village of Chushul

www.telegraph.co.uk

It's on.

One of youtube comments say the camp had a porn stash.

 

[Cherico]

India captures Chinese camp in disputed Ladakh as violence erupts again between superpowers

On Saturday evening, around 500 Chinese troops had tried to cross into Indian territory near the village of Chushul

www.telegraph.co.uk

It's on.

One of youtube comments say the camp had a porn stash.

name a single military base that doesn't have a porn stash.

 

[Arch Dornan]

name a single military base that doesn't have a porn stash.

One that isn't modern?

 

[PsihoKekec]

That only means their porn was cruder.

 

[Arch Dornan]

That only means their porn was cruder.

I once watched this korean drama that had some bearded dude looking at naked paintings. Maybe that's the porn? Nude painting?

 

[PsihoKekec]

And millenias ago it was a crude stick figure with exagerated mamaries.

 

[Arch Dornan]

And millenias ago it was a crude stick figure with exagerated mamaries.

Maybe it was crafted figurines but in those days they'd be more open with the red light district.

 

[Deleted member]

In case of Gulf sources not available for China, China can send their tanker fleet to Russian gas and oil terminals in the Far East and the Arctic / Northern Russia. Russian exports aren't just via pipelines you know...

It's a matter of Chinese tankers "filling up" at a different spot, and India, capacity to hit aside, would not dare to hit Russian infrastructure...

Sure, there would be challenges and stoppages, but between pipelines, tanker fleets and even railway cisterns you can push a surprising amount of fuel.

(Btw. I used to work in fuel-related business as senior exec for a while, though I was moving money mostly...)

The Indians could try to intercept tankers going to the Russian Far East on the high seas.

 

[Deleted member]

The PLA Navy would have to traverse the Straits of Malacca, go all the way around to the other side of India and then somehow maintain a supply chain all the way from China to the Gulf of Hormuz (around India) . Only one, possibly two navies in the world I know of who have that capability.

The Indians could park some warships off of Hormuz and try pick out and seize any tankers bound for China.

Even if China could get supplies via the Panama Canal or Cape of Good Hope, any oil leaving it's origin via Hormuz could be stopped. That leaves out everyone in the mid-east but the Saudis (and most of their oil also leaves via Hormuz I believe).

Another factor is that the Indians have sixty+ years of carrier operations including combat operations under their belts. The Chinese have ten. The Indians directly copy Fleet Air Arm practice, the Chinese had to invent their own. INS Vikramaditya is frankly a potent weapon that, even outnumbered two to one, could probably put the PLAN on the bottom with skill and daring if they were operating in the Indian Ocean far from supporting land based infrastructure. It would be a classic WW2 “strike first, you win” roll of the dice for the Indians to locate and hit the Chinese first with their full deck.

 

[Tryglaw]

The Indians could try to intercept tankers going to the Russian Far East on the high seas.

Ummm, how?

In maritime terms, Chinese shipping can go from Chinese national waters to Russian national waters right after hopping that pass between Korean Peninsula and Japan, straight to Vladivostok, shielded from "high seas" by Japanese Islands and then Sakhalin to the east, and Korean Peninsula then Russian clay (since Russia has a land border with North Korea) to the west.
That means basically all the time under cover / interdicted by land-based aviation.

Never mind Hindu fleet would have to sail from Bay of Bengal past Malaysia (which could deny passage, again I'd have to check laws on passage of warships of belligerent sides, if the straights can be closed like the Bosporus), Indonesia, Vietnam or Philippines, then pretty much all of Chinese coast north, then either past the Korea / Japan pass or around Japan and between Japan and Sakhalin to hit tankers in Russian national waters...

Or try their luck in Chinese waters, against land-based aviation backing Chinese navy.

In case of a conflict, for either Japan or S.Korea to allow Indian navy to operate within their national waters would make them co-belligerents de facto (and possibly de jure, I'd have to look up relevant conventions and laws). Squeezed better Russia and China, well, that really would not be a good idea for them...

Also, Chinese navy by now is bigger and more modern then Hindu one.
Never mind Russian reaction on India hitting Russian trade...

 

[Deleted member]

@Tryglaw submarines. Diesel submarines can marginally do patrols that far out, but the Indians now have a few nuke attack boats. They only need to sink a couple tankers for the the Lloyd’s rates to go crazy. Most Chinese oil does not travel on Chinese bottoms.

 

[Zachowon]

Ummm, how?

In maritime terms, Chinese shipping can go from Chinese national waters to Russian national waters right after hopping that pass between Korean Peninsula and Japan, straight to Vladivostok, shielded from "high seas" by Japanese Islands and then Sakhalin to the east, and Korean Peninsula then Russian clay (since Russia has a land border with North Korea) to the west.
That means basically all the time under cover / interdicted by land-based aviation.

Never mind Hindu fleet would have to sail from Bay of Bengal past Malaysia (which could deny passage, again I'd have to check laws on passage of warships of belligerent sides, if the straights can be closed like the Bosporus), Indonesia, Vietnam or Philippines, then pretty much all of Chinese coast north, then either past the Korea / Japan pass or around Japan and between Japan and Sakhalin to hit tankers in Russian national waters...

Or try their luck in Chinese waters, against land-based aviation backing Chinese navy.

In case of a conflict, for either Japan or S.Korea to allow Indian navy to operate within their national waters would make them co-belligerents de facto (and possibly de jure, I'd have to look up relevant conventions and laws). Squeezed better Russia and China, well, that really would not be a good idea for them...

Also, Chinese navy by now is bigger and more modern then Hindu one.
Never mind Russian reaction on India hitting Russian trade...

South Korea would be strongly encouraged by the US to not intervene. Same with Japaj as this yhen could cause a world war

 

[PsihoKekec]

The problem is that according to maritime law, the civilian shipping can use their territorial waters to pass through, while use of foreign military vessels to attack these civilian ships during peaceful passage is rather frowned upon. So Chinese navy can escort tankers and cargo ships from Shangai to South Korean territorial waters and from there they can follow the coast to Vladivostok under rules of innocent passage. Technically, the Indian submarines could also use these rules to follow the ships, but wouldn't be able to use the weapons unless the followed ships strayed out of territorial waters, or they wanted a serious incident with Koreas or Russia. To that matter they might try their luck with their sole Akula in the North Korean territorial waters.

 

[Zachowon]

The problem is that according to maritime law, the civilian shipping can use their territorial waters to pass through, while use of foreign military vessels to attack these civilian ships during peaceful passage is rather frowned upon. So Chinese navy can escort tankers and cargo ships from Shangai to South Korean territorial waters and from there they can follow the coast to Vladivostok under rules of innocent passage. Technically, the Indian submarines could also use these rules to follow the ships, but wouldn't be able to use the weapons unless the followed ships strayed out of territorial waters, or they wanted a serious incident with Koreas or Russia. To that matter they might try their luck with their sole Akula in the North Korean territorial waters.

Honestly best time to attack. When by North korea. They can't and won't do shit

 

[PsihoKekec]

Of course thy can, they would be all too glad to sink a foreign submarine in their territorial waters, but their ASW gear is old, so it would be difficult, but not impossible. It would be huge loss of face for them, so they might accept Chinese offer/demand to send their own ASW helis and aircraft, in NK colors of course. It remains to be seen how much damage the submarine could do in that time.

 

[Zachowon]

I doubt that would happen. China would do something on thier own. Things arnt the best up there right now woth nK.

 

[Arch Dornan]

China accuses India of firing gunshots near troops across disputed border in latest confrontation

Shots fired?