Second (or Third) Russo-Japanese War

[Husky_Khan]

Peace talks have ended. War is inevitable.



Some professional military analysis.

Japan protests Russian halt to World War Two peace treaty talks

Japan reacted angrily on Tuesday after Russia withdrew from peace treaty talks with Japan and froze joint economic projects related to the disputed Kuril islands because of Japanese sanctions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Make your predictions people. Tokyo in three days? Kurils in one day?

Mongolia Resurgent in the aftermath?

 

[gral]

Mongolia Resurgent in the aftermath?

Please, this.

 

[King Arts]

The japs will spank Ivan.

 

[Bacle]

The ghosts of the Second Baltic Squadron will have their revenge on Moscow, and Japan will get the islands back, if things go loud over those islands.

The western world might feel a bit wishy-washy over Ukraine because of how riddled with corruption Ukraine has been in the past.

This conflict however...Russia should have signed the WW2 peace treaty and given those island's back to Japan a long damn time ago. That this is still an issue is rather absurd in so many ways.

The Western world will not have anywhere near the internal debate/fight over defending Japan that we are having over Ukraine, if Japan says we are taking our island's back because Russia is illegally occupying them.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

How big is the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force anyways? Even if there is going to be a war between Russia and Japan, the US would definitely get involved, as they have a mutual defense treaty with the Japanese. Although, I might also see China getting involved as well, because of Diaoyu/Senkaku Island dispute.

 

[Husky_Khan]

How big is the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force anyways? Even if there is going to be a war between Russia and Japan, the US would definitely get involved, as they have a mutual defense treaty with the Japanese. Although, I might also see China getting involved as well, because of Diaoyu/Senkaku Island dispute.

Eight Combat and Nine Combat Support (Engineers and Air Defense).

Most of the Self Defense Forces are (predictably) focused on defense. They have one elite Airborne Brigade and one recently created Amphibious Brigade (thanks to the Senkaku issue) plus an Air Assault brigade which seems more defensive in spite of the designation.

Most of their Navy is dedicated to Anti-Submarine warfare with Air Defense and AntiShip secondary.

Most telling, unless something changed recently their Air Force doesn't even have guided air to ground munitions AFAIK.

 

[Bacle]

Eight Combat and Nine Combat Support (Engineers and Air Defense).

Most of the Self Defense Forces are (predictably) focused on defense. They have one elite Airborne Brigade and one recently created Amphibious Brigade (thanks to the Senkaku issue) plus an Air Assault brigade which seems more defensive in spite of the designation.

Most of their Navy is dedicated to Anti-Submarine warfare with Air Defense and AntiShip secondary.

Most telling, unless something changed recently their Air Force doesn't even have guided air to ground munitions AFAIK.

I think the Japanese changed that when they rewrote Article 9 a few years back.

Tried to find the articles, but could not find anything specific about squirting land attack munitions. However, they are getting F-35s, and I expect they have orders in for land attack weapons comparable with F-35s.

I'm pretty sure the Japanese have anti-tank missiles for their attack choppers, so they could at least fit those on thier planes if they don't have anything else.

Also remember a few articles taking about Japan acquiring some ALCMs like the Tomahawk for defensive purposes, so they may already have some of those.

Not sure what Japan has for anti-ship work, but I figure they probably have a Harpoon or Exocet knock-off they could make air-launched in a pinch.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I think the Japanese changed that when they rewrote Article 9 a few years back.

Tried to find the articles, but could not find anything specific about squirting land attack munitions. However, they are getting F-35s, and I expect they have orders in for land attack weapons comparable with F-35s.

I'm pretty sure the Japanese have anti-tank missiles for their attack choppers, so they could at least fit those on thier planes if they don't have anything else.

Also remember a few articles taking about Japan acquiring some ALCMs like the Tomahawk for defensive purposes, so they may already have some of those.

Not sure what Japan has for anti-ship work, but I figure they probably have a Harpoon or Exocet knock-off they could make air-launched in a pinch.

Yeah looks like they are in talks in upgrading their Air to ground missiles.

Japan’s Potential Acquisition of Ground-Launched Land-Attack Missiles: Implications for the U.S.-Japanese Alliance - War on the Rocks

In late August 2017, millions of people in northern Japan got a startling, early morning text message. “Missile alert,” it read, before telling people to

warontherocks.com

And it is a recent thing. Apparently they do have some limited air to ground ability with the missiles mentioned above and things like the AGM-78 Anti-Radiation missiles as well

And like you say, their army does have artillery and anti-tank (and anti landing ship) guided missiles as well, including on their Attack Helicopters.

We saw them used in Shin Godzilla after all. 😏

And yeah they got their own indigenous designed antiship missiles as well.

 

[gral]

Not sure what Japan has for anti-ship work, but I figure they probably have a Harpoon or Exocet knock-off they could make air-launched in a pinch.

The Japanese actually have more anti-ship and anti-tank missiles than other kinds of missile, because they could justify those as being for self-defence purpose. These are the air-launched anti-ship missiles used by Japan:

Type 93 Air-to-Ship Missile - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

ASM-3 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Here's their main land-based anti-ship missile:

Type 12 Surface-to-Ship Missile - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There's links for other Japanese missiles in the Wikipedia pages.

 

[ATP]

Why KGBstan should attack Japan? they would only lost their Pacyfic fleet.Even they knew that - and on sea throwing fresh bodies,like they plan to win on Ukraine/and probably would win/ would never worked.

Unless,they come as China ally.Problem is - is China interested in war? according to them,USA would fall before 2040,so they could wait.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

China could wait, but Taiwan is more of a perfect target for them. Plus China and Japan have a territorial dispute as well.

 

[ATP]

China could wait, but Taiwan is more of a perfect target for them. Plus China and Japan have a territorial dispute as well.

Indeed.And China,after few days when they waited for Putin victory,now laugh at KGBstan and wait when it fell apart like soviet union,so they could take Syberia.Which mostly is ancient chineese territory - in Tang dynasty times.China still remember that.
So,no joining Putin there.
And Putin would not attack ,too - he could not win one war on land,so he would not need defeat on sea.

 

[Bacle]

The Japanese actually have more anti-ship and anti-tank missiles than other kinds of missile, because they could justify those as being for self-defence purpose. These are the air-launched anti-ship missiles used by Japan:

Type 93 Air-to-Ship Missile - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

ASM-3 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Here's their main land-based anti-ship missile:

Type 12 Surface-to-Ship Missile - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There's links for other Japanese missiles in the Wikipedia pages.

Damn, nice.

That new Type-93 makes me think of the old Type-93 the Japanese used; guess the Long Lances will come from jets instead of subs this time.

SoB is about the same size as the old Type-93 as well.

 

[PsihoKekec]

I'm pretty sure the Japanese have anti-tank missiles for their attack choppers, so they could at least fit those on thier planes if they don't have anything else.

Helicopter ATGMs don't work on aircraft as they are made to be launched from stationary/low speed (under 50 km/h) platform.

 

[Husky_Khan]

I think the Japanese changed that when they rewrote Article 9 a few years back.

Tried to find the articles, but could not find anything specific about squirting land attack munitions. However, they are getting F-35s, and I expect they have orders in for land attack weapons comparable with F-35s.

Should've known this because they literally used guided bombs in aforementioned Shin Godzilla as well but they now have a fair number of JDAM kits in all likelihood since way back in 2013 they added laser guidance kits to some of their JDAMs. And the Binkov video cited in the OP, at around 6:45 in states that they have IR bomb kits and over five hundred JDAM kits as well.

Boeing gets another order for 1,496 precision laser guidance kits for JDAM smart munition

PATUXENT RIVER NAS, Md., 24 April 2013. The U.S. Navy is ordering 1,496 laser guidance kits to enable the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) to destroy moving targets under terms...

www.militaryaerospace.com

And I guess they've had them for a while, since 2003 albeit only for the F-2's.

JDAM Kits to Be Installed in Japan's F-2s | Aviation Week Network

JDAMS FOR F-2S Japan's air force has opted to install Joint Direct Attack Munition kits on its 500-lb. bombs for its frontline Mitsubishi/Lockheed Martin F-2s. The addition of the JDAM GPS guidance system and fins will bring a precision bombing capability to the close-air-support fighter. The...

aviationweek.com

You are probably right in that the F-35's that Japan is purchasing would almost certainly have strike capabilities.

 

[Buba]

Would somebody please think about the children logistics?
Vladivostok is some 10 timezones away from Moscow, Petropavlosk Kamchatskiy - another 2 or 3.
There are two RR between the Far East and the rest of the Russian Federation. 100% increase over 1904 - woot! woot!
Unless it is stockpile+Blitzkrieg+Japanese political cave-in (and such planning worked wonderfully for e.g. Japan in 1941, didn't it?), it is impossible for Russia to win.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Plus apparently the Russians deployed (at least elements) one of their Naval Brigades stationed in Kamchatka, the 40th, to Ukraine to fight and die in Mariupol.

Though Russia did announce a military exercise in the disputed region.

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www.reporter.am

Three thousand troops. No doubt Japan should be cowering from such a potent conventional force.

 

[Husky_Khan]

So apparently one of the islands in the Kurils is 60% ethnically Ukrainian.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iturup

And while most of the Kuril Islands are apparently ethnically Russian, there are also minorities of Tatars, Ainus, Orochs and Nivkhs etc who clearly need protecting, especially considering the population loss that has occurred in these areas as of late.

I think the responsible thing to do... is for Japan to support the independence of these islands in some sort of "Seperatist Republic" that they can then ensure the safety and security from in case of attempts at retaliatory and unprovoked Russian aggression or genocide.

 

[Bacle]

So Japan officially has stated that the Kuril's are all Japanese territory that are being illegally occupied by the Russians.

Guess this would be the time to put pressure on Russia over this, and start getting international pressure going related to it as well.

 

[ATP]

So Japan officially has stated that the Kuril's are all Japanese territory that are being illegally occupied by the Russians.

Guess this would be the time to put pressure on Russia over this, and start getting international pressure going related to it as well.

And it mean,that Russia is weak.Japan do not dared such thing before,becouse they feared invasion.Now they see,that there is nothing to fear.