Russian Military News

[Marduk]

But I also know we cannot prevent it anymore than we can stop the globe from spinning, so I'd rather prepare for, and adapt to, a multipolar world than waste time trying to maintain a unipolar world.

The problem with that is that its a self fulfilling prophecy. Obama's "managed decline".
The problem is, the day it becomes a multipolar world, what your further plans are going to be?
Continue "managed decline", or become one of the major powers competing for leading role the next time bipolar/unipolar world happens?

What do you define as a 'medium power', I think I need to ask before I make any assumptions of which nations you are referring to.

SK, Australia and about half of NATO. On top of that France, UK and Japan which are major powers.

Because, as you said, they aren't just trusting their ICBMs?

Exactly. If they thought 80-90% of them will get through anyway, that would not be a sufficient reason to not trust them.

Status-6 is what happened when some Russian realized that the Tsar Bomba warhead may not fit in a plane, but could fit in a sub/torpedo, and acted accordingly. Luckily it seems only 2 subs can actually carry them, and the torps are not being left 'on-station' at this point.

Then there's the Soviet 'mole missiles' which are pretty much uninterruptible earthquake bombs, likely deployed by subs, if they actually exist as more than propaganda and old Soviet BS. They are of limited use or dependability because of where they are (very hard to retrieve or refurbish a warhead buried in the continental slope, and every easy for it to fail if there are problems with the drilling device), but they could certainly cause problems on their own or used in concert with things like Status-6.

Status-6 due to its nature of high endurance unmanned vehicle can be deployed by all sorts of cheaper methods, if need be.

The difference with the mole bombs is that subs hanging around different continents are shadowed, and western powers are pretty good at that. If they got spotted doing it, it would be a massive scandal, and the warheads would be interfered with, destructively if need be.

And what does that prove? Yes, they're concerned (at the present) with Green energy. That does not mean that France lacks power--as in military power. France has a very capable military and often performs its own military activities in West Africa and beyond.

Which is a completely different kind of warfare than staring down Russia. And regardless of that is stretching France's readiness and funding.

France to ask allies for help in Central Africa

It wants troops or logistical aid to head off a possible genocidal civil war

www.independent.co.uk

France Struggles to Retain Colonial Ties in Africa

Despite strong efforts to maintain its historic bonds with its former colonies in Africa, France's position is far from guaranteed.

worldview.stratfor.com

Crisis in the Sahel Becoming France’s Forever War (Published 2020)

Riding along with French troops hunting Islamist militants in France’s unwinnable West African war.

www.nytimes.com

Doesn't that remind you of something?
If France is doing fine, why is it still asking for help, to add insult to injury, from tiny countries in border crisis with Russia's ally?

https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/french-president-asks-lithuania-to-send-troops-to-mali.d?id=87709461

When you can afford to be pious at the expense of others, you'll find that money is no object. When you are suddenly alone and must pay for it yourself, you will be rather stingy.

And that's the problem with greens. They, ultimately, want general "taxpayers" to pay. Meanwhile NGOs, banks, international talking circles and such are not steel or concrete industry, green agenda won't hit their pocket much.

They very much are not. The EU is not a military power, it is an economic bloc. This is rather obvious, because the moment they all stopped making money is when they began to turn on each other. The only meaningful way that the EU can integrate its various military assets is though NATO. The Germans, more or less lacking a military worth speaking of, is not suited to repel a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe. You can expect that to change, but it's going to take years for the Germans to make the changes. Assuming they have the will left to make those changes.

Germany of all countries understands their Clausewitz.
They don't have the political will to play military brinkmanship and the "western club" would look askance at them if they tried, so they have put themselves in a position to reach similar goals by mercantilist and political means instead.

You ignore the greater threat to their oil shipments. The Iranians won't be the only ones targeting oil tankers leaving the gulf. Saudi military will target Iranian oil tankers. And at the same time there's an escalating war between the Gulf States, there's going to be an escalating conflict in Eastern Asia. The Iranians will not only have a massive logistic issue in their own back yard, but so will the Chinese. There is an overland route, but that is difficult to defend and to my knowledge, is not really an option at this point. Even if it were/is, the margins are going to be different going over land.

Iranians are not afraid of Saudi navy any more than anyone is afraid of Saudi army.
That the Asia conflict will go red hot at the very same moment is... unlikely.

Nor are the Iranians without any weakness in their own weapons. Most of their aircraft are horribly outdated or cheap copies of horribly outdated tech. The Saudis, for all their horrific incompetence, are going to have a massive technological advantage in any battle. They can also be bolstered by regional allies such as Israel--who are not only competent, but technologically sophisticated.

Yes, Sauds bought lots of nice toys they have little idea what to do with. Their adventures with Yemen show both them and the Iranians, through their proxies, what to expect from each other. If the Saudis could leverage their nice toys effectively, they would be expected to do better in Yemen. Yet they made it a stalemate, even though they are merely fighting Iran's budget proxies, rather than their proper forces.

Israel won't send much material support due to distance and their own politics.

And when you take the time to read a map, you'll notice that the Iranians are going to have just as much difficulty pushing out of their mountain nation as anyone would be in pushing in. Their supplies are still going to have to go through those mountains. Saudi Arabia may still fall (and that will be no big loss in my book), but it is not going to be easy and I don't think it's going to be quick. The only exception to that thought is if Saudi incompetence exceeds itself.

I for one have considerable trust in Saudi military incompetence.

Then let Russia and their neighbors decide that. Why should America, half a world away, place itself as defender of Ukraine, when France and Germany drag their feet?

US own political establishments mean so.
If they don't, there is a simple way USA could explain its new not-give-a-shittism based policy.
Namely, announce that if the central european countries were to, hypothetically, take all nuclear non-proliferation treaties and similar liberal internationalist peace initiatives and do what they need to protect themselves, USA won't say a word about it and will veto any sanctions against them. Then enjoy the global political earthquake.

Until then, USA is bound into that mess, in one way or another.

 

[Zachowon]

And what does that prove? Yes, they're concerned (at the present) with Green energy. That does not mean that France lacks power--as in military power. France has a very capable military and often performs its own military activities in West Africa and beyond.



When you can afford to be pious at the expense of others, you'll find that money is no object. When you are suddenly alone and must pay for it yourself, you will be rather stingy.



The French are pricks, truly this is a shock to us all.



They very much are not. The EU is not a military power, it is an economic bloc. This is rather obvious, because the moment they all stopped making money is when they began to turn on each other. The only meaningful way that the EU can integrate its various military assets is though NATO. The Germans, more or less lacking a military worth speaking of, is not suited to repel a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe. You can expect that to change, but it's going to take years for the Germans to make the changes. Assuming they have the will left to make those changes.



You ignore the greater threat to their oil shipments. The Iranians won't be the only ones targeting oil tankers leaving the gulf. Saudi military will target Iranian oil tankers. And at the same time there's an escalating war between the Gulf States, there's going to be an escalating conflict in Eastern Asia. The Iranians will not only have a massive logistic issue in their own back yard, but so will the Chinese. There is an overland route, but that is difficult to defend and to my knowledge, is not really an option at this point. Even if it were/is, the margins are going to be different going over land.

Nor are the Iranians without any weakness in their own weapons. Most of their aircraft are horribly outdated or cheap copies of horribly outdated tech. The Saudis, for all their horrific incompetence, are going to have a massive technological advantage in any battle. They can also be bolstered by regional allies such as Israel--who are not only competent, but technologically sophisticated.

And when you take the time to read a map, you'll notice that the Iranians are going to have just as much difficulty pushing out of their mountain nation as anyone would be in pushing in. Their supplies are still going to have to go through those mountains. Saudi Arabia may still fall (and that will be no big loss in my book), but it is not going to be easy and I don't think it's going to be quick. The only exception to that thought is if Saudi incompetence exceeds itself.



Then let Russia and their neighbors decide that. Why should America, half a world away, place itself as defender of Ukraine, when France and Germany drag their feet?



I for my own part, do not think that the US will be too inclined to involve itself in many of the coming wars. It may sell weapons to Europeans, Saudis, or the Israelis, perhaps perform a few targeted strikes--but you will not get a lot of boots on the ground. The only place the US is intent on facing conflict head on at all is against China, which has decided it wants to sit itself upon America's throne.

US will be in a war with boots on ground.
It is damn near guaranteed. We are preparing for just that

 

[ATP]

Everytime a multipolar world existed, war soon followed.
The US great depression lead to the world hurting and Germany suffering

We have multipolar world since bronze age,and war is part of humanity since we left Paradise.
great depression helped WW2,but was not major reason.And germans keep hurting themselves using their own stuoidity - they could win both wars early,but fucked it up.

 

[Bacle]

Russia just conducted an ASAT test, and now a new debris cloud is in orbit; ISS having to go to 'Safe Haven' maneuvers.

 

[Bacle]

Russian Anti-Satellite Test Produces Dangerous Debris Cloud In Orbit (Updated)

U.S. Space Command has confirmed a "debris-generating event," which now presents a potential risk to the International Space Station.

www.thedrive.com

More info about ASAT test, seems the crew have had to get in the escape vehicles because the debris cloud is just above the ISS's orbit and could impact the station. Right now they know it's in at least 14 pieces.

 

[Bacle]

They are now estimating over 1500 new pieces of trackable debris in that orbit, that will be there for potentially decades, and it seems the ISS crew is now in full emergency mode because of fear of hits by the debris field.

Edit: NASA statement.

NASA Administrator Statement on Russian ASAT Test - NASA

On Monday Moscow Standard Time, the International Space Station (ISS) Flight Control team was notified of indications of a satellite breakup that may create

www.nasa.gov

 

[PsihoKekec]

Russian treatment of all this is peculiar to say the least. There were no public announcement of the test and there were also no public denial, they are simply keeping silent and waiting for it to blow over.

 

[ATP]

Russian treatment of all this is peculiar to say the least. There were no public announcement of the test and there were also no public denial, they are simply keeping silent and waiting for it to blow over.

No,that old soviet behaviour.They did what they wonted,without talking about that.
Why now ? maybe to show everybody that USA is nothing? they did so when Biden agreed to NS2.So,why?

 

[Bacle]

Precision of a goldsmith...bold strategy Cotton, let's see how it goes.

Edit:

US accuses Russia of ‘dangerous’ behavior after anti-satellite weapons test

Russia fired missile at its own satellite, generating debris that US says ‘threatens interests of all nations’

www.theguardian.com

"Nelson said the astronauts now faced a four times greater risk than normal with the ISS passing near or through the debris cloud every 90 minutes."

 

[Bacle]

If true...Russia, don't get stupid on us, please...Ukraine is not worth it.

 

[Yinko]

More info about ASAT test, seems the crew have had to get in the escape vehicles because the debris cloud is just above the ISS's orbit and could impact the station. Right now they know it's in at least 14 pieces.

If the Russians, or anyone else, used an anti-satelite weapon in anger (or even as a test) what are the odds of a catastrophic chain reaction that destroys the entire satellite-ophere?

 

[PsihoKekec]

They would have to destroy well over dozen satellites, possibly even more than fifty to get such cataclysm cascade. Space is 3D environment with orbits of satellites ranging from several hundred kilometres to tens of thousands of kilometres of distance from Earth, not to mention that satellites have their own thrusters, with limited fuel reserves, to correct the orbit, with the change of even few hundred meters sometimes enough to dodge the debris field.

If true...Russia, don't get stupid on us, please...Ukraine is not worth it.

This is just ramping up the anti-Russia hysteria for the sake of neocons. These call-ups are considered unprecedented because Russian reserves system fell apart in the 90's and it was only in the last ten years that they started doing these large scale call-ups of the reserves again, increasing their size with each exercise. So the next call-up will be even larger than this one and American propaganda will again hype it as a horrible clear and present danger.

The most obvious sign that this is nothing but media hysteria for the sake of politics is the fact that it's all out in the media. Russians have been training and improving their deployment doctrine and capable of sudden fast redeployment of their units, so if they actually wanted to invade Ukraine, it would take them between 72-96 hours from the first movement of units in other parts of Russia to full out offensive. Since we are almost three weeks from the first noticeable deployments...

There is possibility that at some point USA will push Russia to the point where they will see no other option but to start the big one, but this is neither here or now.

 

[Marduk]

There is a third and very likely interpretation of moves like this. It is an application of a military strategy as old as organized warfare, and as effective as ever.
Namely, mock attacks to keep enemy troops on their toes, tiring them out, making them spend money, and damaging their readiness in process. Currently such tactic is most well known by what China is doing to Taiwan.

Why is China increasing its military pressure on Taiwan?

As China ramps up its display of power, Taiwan’s leaders vow to do ‘whatever it takes’ to defend its independence

www.theguardian.com

It works the same way with Ukraine, combining especially well with the need to deploy troops to guard the border with rogue republics. Ukraine is not a rich country, it struggles to arrange money and supplies for troops deployed in the field, and the troops also need plenty of overdue training which, thanks to events like this, they have limited time to do aswell.

 

[Zachowon]

They would have to destroy well over dozen satellites, possibly even more than fifty to get such cataclysm cascade. Space is 3D environment with orbits of satellites ranging from several hundred kilometres to tens of thousands of kilometres of distance from Earth, not to mention that satellites have their own thrusters, with limited fuel reserves, to correct the orbit, with the change of even few hundred meters sometimes enough to dodge the debris field.


This is just ramping up the anti-Russia hysteria for the sake of neocons. These call-ups are considered unprecedented because Russian reserves system fell apart in the 90's and it was only in the last ten years that they started doing these large scale call-ups of the reserves again, increasing their size with each exercise. So the next call-up will be even larger than this one and American propaganda will again hype it as a horrible clear and present danger.

The most obvious sign that this is nothing but media hysteria for the sake of politics is the fact that it's all out in the media. Russians have been training and improving their deployment doctrine and capable of sudden fast redeployment of their units, so if they actually wanted to invade Ukraine, it would take them between 72-96 hours from the first movement of units in other parts of Russia to full out offensive. Since we are almost three weeks from the first noticeable deployments...

There is possibility that at some point USA will push Russia to the point where they will see no other option but to start the big one, but this is neither here or now.

I fully disagree.
Things have been going against Russia in Ukraine for awhile, and it seems they are going fully against them even worse.

But I do see how some of your arguments are

 

[ATP]

If true...Russia, don't get stupid on us, please...Ukraine is not worth it.

They are still lead by soviets,unfortunatelly dumber one.So yes,they could go for Ukraine.After all fucks Ukraine was showing Poland lately,i hope that we do not help them.
They are german invention,not our.

 

[Bacle]

Well that is at least a more useful place for that equipment to go, and if we are sending advisors as well...I guess we are going to test how far Putin is willing to go to take Ukraine, if he wants to. Will he be willing to risk killing US advisors on the ground, if he decides to send official Russian units into Ukraine, and attempt a Crimea 2.0?

 

[Marduk]

Well that is at least a more useful place for that equipment to go, and if we are sending advisors as well...I guess we are going to test how far Putin is willing to go to take Ukraine, if he wants to. Will he be willing to risk killing US advisors on the ground, if he decides to send official Russian units into Ukraine, and attempt a Crimea 2.0?

The Georgian war demonstrates that Russia is absolutely willing to play chicken on this and won't yield.

At this point its hard to say if Russia will attempt a Donbass 2.0 (Crimea 2.0 is impossible because Ukraine is not filled with Russian military forces anymore, while Crimea was). So far there is a distinct lack of political grounds/backing/excuse for the operation in the targeted area to be taken. If any such arise, then we can be pretty sure that this is happening within weeks, if not days. Russia doesn't pull shit like that without well prepared narrative to defend its actions with diplomatically, we have seen it in their previous operation.
Particularly be on lookout for the Odessa and Mariupol area, because due to strategic positioning they are of greatest interest to Russia.

The alternate theory is even more interesting - namely, few weeks ago rumors started that Ukraine got its military into order, while the separatist republics only got poorer and more miserable over time, and so Ukraine has decided to take back Donbass this spring and the separatists probably can't stop them.
Wouldn't be surprised if Russia noticed, and started to make moves faking preparations for an attack in order to scare off Ukraine from that plan, or at least distract them by forcing them to put their forces into defensive positions rather than commit these forces to an offensive in Donbass. An attack repelled without firing a single shot...

 

[Zachowon]

I do not think this is a faint

 

[Marduk]

I do not think this is a faint

If its not, then we're going to see some shit along the lines of massive protests, insurgency or terrorist attacks happening in Ukraine, particularly the regions Russia is interested in, in order to excuse their intervention.
Until then, there can be no intervention.

 

[Bacle]

The Georgian war demonstrates that Russia is absolutely willing to play chicken on this and won't yield.

At this point its hard to say if Russia will attempt a Donbass 2.0 (Crimea 2.0 is impossible because Ukraine is not filled with Russian military forces anymore, while Crimea was). So far there is a distinct lack of political grounds/backing/excuse for the operation in the targeted area to be taken. If any such arise, then we can be pretty sure that this is happening within weeks, if not days. Russia doesn't pull shit like that without well prepared narrative to defend its actions with diplomatically, we have seen it in their previous operation.
Particularly be on lookout for the Odessa and Mariupol area, because due to strategic positioning they are of greatest interest to Russia.

The alternate theory is even more interesting - namely, few weeks ago rumors started that Ukraine got its military into order, while the separatist republics only got poorer and more miserable over time, and so Ukraine has decided to take back Donbass this spring and the separatists probably can't stop them.
Wouldn't be surprised if Russia noticed, and started to make moves faking preparations for an attack in order to scare off Ukraine from that plan, or at least distract them by forcing them to put their forces into defensive positions rather than commit these forces to an offensive in Donbass. An attack repelled without firing a single shot...

Well supposedly the Ukrainians have started using the Javelin's Trump sold them against 'rebel' armor recently, so it might have something to do with that.

IIRC, there is also a Royal Navy CV in the Black Sea, per Twitter, with USMC F-35's onboard, plus it's own airwing, so that likely has the Russians a little amped up. As well, we just delivered 2 ex-USCG cutters to Ukraine for their navy, so a lot of assets have been moved into the area.

If Russia really does move on some part of Ukraine, this has potential to get ugly fast.