Russian Invasion of Ukraine 2022

Jormungandr

The Midgard Wyrm
Founder
Honestly the loss of those generals is making me wonder if there isn't some truth to that conspiracy theory ATP brought up about Putin using this as a way of eliminating perceived domestic threats to himself from his own army.
It wouldn't surprise me -- However, I don't think he expected a lot of the oligarchs to begin turning on him. Well, either he did expect that and saw it as a calculated risk. It isn't paying off, I think.
 

Chiron

Well-known member
You might wanna read that list before crowing about it.

Because something like 70% of that list is TRANSPORT/UTILITY Helicopters, but what Russia has been loosing are ATTACK Helicopters. And not their old Soviet era shit which makes up the majority of their Attack Helicopter arsenal either, but modern stuff which they can't replace.

Also it's hilarious that you think the vehicles in Russia's vehicle park will run when they can barely keep their active equipment working due to corruption and sub standard maintenance.

Finally, Ukraine has a confirmed 3 to 1 kill ratio, and have literally captured more vehicles then they have lost at this point in the war.

4 Ka-52s lost so far, well below their replacement rate.

Also, Oryx's list is incomplete, has known errors, and means nothing, which was pointed out pages ago. If we grant 100% accuracy to his lists, Russia could easily afford 5 to 1 losses and come out ahead, that and as the Russian MoD releases more video evidence, it is becoming clear the UkA has lost more men and vehicles than Russia has. Kherson Base alone was a Brigade Base containing Divisional Assets and was overran pretty quickly with its vehicles and ammo captured and its Garrison basically disintegrating. Also a good 70,000 of the UkA's troops are trapped in pockets, 10,000 alone in Mariupol. As those close, Russia will be getting the bulk of their gear back and UkA will be losing the bulk of its professional troops.

Finally, Ukraine is throwing teenagers on the front with just 3 days training and is short on rifles and ammunition. Russian Recruits are being sent in with a minimum of 6 months training. Also the Foreign Legion got wiped, and Ukraine's ability to make and distribute war material is being systematically destroyed.











More reinforcements. Putin is making it clear that he will have victory. A clear and decisive one.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!


Apparently hackers hit Ukraine24 channel with a deep fake of Zelensky's voice calling on UkA to lay down their arms. Had the reporters gong till they realized it wasn't Zelensky. The real Zelensky on right now on their live feed if you're interested.

So, a choice between a piece of CGI/CGA and a cokehead clown on strings.

My, the quality of entertainment keeps plummeting.


Here is some more slavic war kino.



Russia giving Donbass both captured and Russian weapons.
 
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TheRejectionist

TheRejectionist
4 Ka-52s lost so far, well below their replacement rate.

Also, Oryx's list is incomplete, has known errors, and means nothing, which was pointed out pages ago. If we grant 100% accuracy to his lists, Russia could easily afford 5 to 1 losses and come out ahead, that and as the Russian MoD releases more video evidence, it is becoming clear the UkA has lost more men and vehicles than Russia has. Kherson Base alone was a Brigade Base containing Divisional Assets and was overran pretty quickly with its vehicles and ammo captured and its Garrison basically disintegrating. Also a good 70,000 of the UkA's troops are trapped in pockets, 10,000 alone in Mariupol. As those close, Russia will be getting the bulk of their gear back and UkA will be losing the bulk of its professional troops.

Finally, Ukraine is throwing teenagers on the front with just 3 days training and is short on rifles and ammunition. Russian Recruits are being sent in with a minimum of 6 months training. Also the Foreign Legion got wiped, and Ukraine's ability to make and distribute war material is being systematically destroyed.











More reinforcements. Putin is making it clear that he will have victory. A clear and decisive one.


@Chiron that's interesting. I didn't expect that. But as I said to @Jormungandr let's see what happens after this war.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Why, if I were Putin I'd want them to make the rump state of Ukraine into a bigger and bigger shithole, I will also have all of Russia's worse criminals building a great wall of the Don river, with people who finish their quota getting very, very little supervision.

All of the people of interest to Russia, if they are smart, will be moving west.
Some of those people are criminals, oligarch proxies, mobsters, they will get a lot of nice, shiny guns with which to make things even worse.
At this point, I am sure Russia will want the leftovers of Ukraine to be a very costly badlands for Europe.

Also, hint hint nudge nudge the Donbass and Odessa republics to get into fentanol and ecstasy production, and that maybe some of all those weapons they are confiscating might be sold off to "reputable pan-slavic businessmen out west"
Are you trying to seem like some sort of fucking psychopath?

Anyway, Zelenski is once again trying to get the West to establish a 'no-fly-zone', this time in an address to the US Congress:
 

strunkenwhite

Well-known member
While generals are sacrosanct in the West, they are not in Russia, they are supposed to go in the harms way. They lost several generals in Chechnya and even couple of days of fighting in Georgia saw one of their generals wounded.
I am pretty ignorant of military matters but everything I have ever heard points to: modern generals should never have reason to be in harm's way unless they get extremely unlucky or shit is completely fucked and their presence is necessary to unfuck it. Multiple Russian generals dying is thus another indicator of how bad the Russians are doing—not just on the battlefield but as an organization generally.
 

CurtisLemay

Wargamer, Amateur Historian, Writer
Nuke Mod
Moderator
Staff Member
Founder
Hello all,
Yep, it's mod colors. I've been tracking this thread. And I am not impressed. This is the War College. We're supposed to be having a sober,
reasoned discussion of what is going on in this war from a military standpoint, not having an exercise in poo-flinging on who the hell is right. That to me is a discussion for the Politics channel. I speak in my mod colors because I am very concerned about what's going on here.

This war, like any war, is a sad waste of human life and potential. We're seeing the spectacle of a Russian army shelling the birthplace of modern Russia into dust. We're seeing the specter of a modern, full-stop, conventional conflict stalk Europe again. The Sietch could and should have been a place to discuss this with some really good analysis. We certainly have the skill set. Instead? We get shills. We get people saying things I'd expect from the mouths of men like Heydrich and Eichmann. Yeah, that's right, I said it. I am an Eastern European Jew by descent. I've probably got distant cousins on both sides in this mess. I am sure I have distant relatives in the soil at Babi Yar.

So do me a favor, if a post seems political? Post it on the Political channel? If it's a sober analysis of what the hell is going on and what you think *might* happen from a military standpoint? Then post it here.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Hello all,
Yep, it's mod colors. I've been tracking this thread. And I am not impressed. This is the War College. We're supposed to be having a sober,
reasoned discussion of what is going on in this war from a military standpoint, not having an exercise in poo-flinging on who the hell is right. That to me is a discussion for the Politics channel. I speak in my mod colors because I am very concerned about what's going on here.

This war, like any war, is a sad waste of human life and potential. We're seeing the spectacle of a Russian army shelling the birthplace of modern Russia into dust. We're seeing the specter of a modern, full-stop, conventional conflict stalk Europe again. The Sietch could and should have been a place to discuss this with some really good analysis. We certainly have the skill set. Instead? We get shills. We get people saying things I'd expect from the mouths of men like Heydrich and Eichmann. Yeah, that's right, I said it. I am an Eastern European Jew by descent. I've probably got distant cousins on both sides in this mess. I am sure I have distant relatives in the soil at Babi Yar.

So do me a favor, if a post seems political? Post it on the Political channel? If it's a sober analysis of what the hell is going on and what you think *might* happen from a military standpoint? Then post it here.
Where is the line between the military and political spheres of this, though?

Is Zelenski making appeals to Western politicians for 'no-fly-zones' and/or Western politicians recommending the same political or military? Is reports of new sanctions, condemnations, or promises from various nations to either side of this fight something for this thread, or the political thread?

I'm not trying to be cheeky, either.

War is a continuation of politics by other means, and trying to separate the two can sometimes seem like it's a purely subjective exercise.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Where is the line between the military and political spheres of this, though?

Is Zelenski making appeals to Western politicians for 'no-fly-zones' and/or Western politicians recommending the same political or military? Is reports of new sanctions, condemnations, or promises from various nations to either side of this fight something for this thread, or the political thread?

I'm not trying to be cheeky, either.

War is a continuation of politics by other means, and trying to separate the two can sometimes seem like it's a purely subjective exercise.
The US/West already went "nuclear" with the financial sanctions on Russia's central bank and with the airspace prohibitions, and the singling out of Russians in the west and Russian culture in general.
They tried to sanction India because it is trying to put feeding its population above western Twatter sperg outs.
This will not escalate to actual nuclear war, but it will get uglier and uglier.
 

Spartan303

In Captain America we Trust!
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
Osaul
Where is the line between the military and political spheres of this, though?

Is Zelenski making appeals to Western politicians for 'no-fly-zones' and/or Western politicians recommending the same political or military? Is reports of new sanctions, condemnations, or promises from various nations to either side of this fight something for this thread, or the political thread?

I'm not trying to be cheeky, either.

War is a continuation of politics by other means, and trying to separate the two can sometimes seem like it's a purely subjective exercise.


Lets try to keep this as close to military related matters and discussions on strategy and tactics that both sides are using, could use, and can not use in this war. Discussions on weapons and equipment, troop movements and supplies, battle lines, battles and objectives in this campaign.

Those posts of a more political nature should be made in a more general Ukraine-Russian war thread in the Politics section.
 

Carrot of Truth

War is Peace
photo-2022-03-11-11-37-04.jpg


That there is just the EU overstepping its authority and claiming its laws should supersede member states laws and constitutions.
 

Arlos

Sad Monarchist
I don’t think we’ll get much good conversation going on the purely military side right now, on one side, they seems very tight lipped, on the other side, way too much disinformation and propaganda, probably not helped by the fact that in many places in Ukraine right now, only governments agencies have communication, for either side.
 

Spartan303

In Captain America we Trust!
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
Osaul
I don’t think we’ll get much good conversation going on the purely military side right now, on one side, they seems very tight lipped, on the other side, way too much disinformation and propaganda, probably not helped by the fact that in many places in Ukraine right now, only governments agencies have communication, for either side.


One of the things we can do in this thread is to try to discern fact from fiction. Stick with what we know but make sure we are clear when we are guessing. Oveall, I don't think anyone is going to truly know everything.
 

Tiamat

I've seen the future...
I don’t think we’ll get much good conversation going on the purely military side right now, on one side, they seems very tight lipped, on the other side, way too much disinformation and propaganda, probably not helped by the fact that in many places in Ukraine right now, only governments agencies have communication, for either side.

One can and probably should beforehand state “here’s what MIGHT happen/may be going on/etc.”, and then put down what they believe is or will happen on the ground. Just put in a friendly disclaimer first, as the fog of war does tend to be chaotic. HuskyKhan usually puts in a disclaimer, ie “this cannot be independently verified yet” whenever she posts Twitter threads on the conflict.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Lets try to keep this as close to military related matters and discussions on strategy and tactics that both sides are using, could use, and can not use in this war. Discussions on weapons and equipment, troop movements and supplies, battle lines, battles and objectives in this campaign.

Those posts of a more political nature should be made in a more general Ukraine-Russian war thread in the Politics section.
Which thread is that?

There is the 'Money printer go Brr' thread, but that is hardly a thread just for this conflict, and more a general 'our economies are fucked' thread.

And if a political statement could have immediate, or near future affects on the military dimension, does it really make since to try to split the conversation about it between 2-3 threads, depending on what happens?

I mean this thread was split off from the main thread about the regions tensions as it was, a thread that effectively died when it happened, and trying to continue to shove conversations on the same overall subject into different silo's kinda feels like it's more about an exercise in power than actually letting people see what's going on.

I mean this obviously isn't the thread for memes, but trying to silo the political from the military aspects of this situation seems very much like trying to split hairs on a subjective basis that just causes conversations/debates to jump between threads in a rather disjointed fashion.

Are only update about stuff on the ground to be allowed here, and not reply or debates about them and their potential ramifications, be they military of political?
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Which thread is that?

There is the 'Money printer go Brr' thread, but that is hardly a thread just for this conflict, and more a general 'our economies are fucked' thread.

And if a political statement could have immediate, or near future affects on the military dimension, does it really make since to try to split the conversation about it between 2-3 threads, depending on what happens?

I mean this thread was split off from the main thread about the regions tensions as it was, a thread that effectively died when it happened, and trying to continue to shove conversations on the same overall subject into different silo's kinda feels like it's more about an exercise in power than actually letting people see what's going on.

I mean this obviously isn't the thread for memes, but trying to silo the political from the military aspects of this situation seems very much like trying to split hairs on a subjective basis that just causes conversations/debates to jump between threads in a rather disjointed fashion.

Are only update about stuff on the ground to be allowed here, and not reply or debates about them and their potential ramifications, be they military of political?
The problem is that our discussions of the on the ground situation will inevitably lead to more speculation about what will happen.
And this is a pretty hot issue, IMO.
 
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Spartan303

In Captain America we Trust!
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
Osaul
Which thread is that?

There is the 'Money printer go Brr' thread, but that is hardly a thread just for this conflict, and more a general 'our economies are fucked' thread.

And if a political statement could have immediate, or near future affects on the military dimension, does it really make since to try to split the conversation about it between 2-3 threads, depending on what happens?

I mean this thread was split off from the main thread about the regions tensions as it was, a thread that effectively died when it happened, and trying to continue to shove conversations on the same overall subject into different silo's kinda feels like it's more about an exercise in power than actually letting people see what's going on.

I mean this obviously isn't the thread for memes, but trying to silo the political from the military aspects of this situation seems very much like trying to split hairs on a subjective basis that just causes conversations/debates to jump between threads in a rather disjointed fashion.

Are only update about stuff on the ground to be allowed here, and not reply or debates about them and their potential ramifications, be they military of political?


This thread here.



Anyway, thats a fair question. This is the war college which is essentially what the War Room was to SB. Id prefer to keep most politics out of this. Notice I said most, but not all. Because Politics does play a part in war, regardless of how we feel about it. But my goal is to keep the politics to a minimum here insofar as it pertains to the war only. Politics surrounding the conflict but not strickly speaking directly related must be taken the the politics thread of the same name.

For example. Lets say Moscow is applying political pressure on the Generals in the field to expedite their attacks on certain targets. Their hope is to either seize key objectives or force Zelynski to the negotiation table but on more favorable terms. This is allowed as its poltics directly related to the war.

Another example. The Ukrainians win a major victory in an around Kiev and force the Russians back. You can speculate how this might effect local poltics in the Ukraine and in Russia, but larger discussions internationally are not permitted.

If however you want to talk about Polish/Russian politics as it relates to the war, or the greater poltics involved from around then world, then take the other thread.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder



@Spartan303

Here's a test case for you.

Where should news like this, and response like this from 'political' players go? Should the news and response from our Embassy be in separate threads?

Edit: Nevermind, just saw your reply, and this seems like it would be fine here under your guidelines.
 

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