This may be difficult to accept, but when I first raised concerns about Ukraine's offensive operations in the Kursk region, I correctly anticipated that it could ultimately lead to Russian forces retaking Kursk and then advancing gradually into Sumy Oblast, and eventually toward Dnipro.
In hindsight, the offensive has proven far more costly than a limited incursion or a strategic defense would have been. A short-term operation, lasting two to four weeks, aimed at creating a modest buffer zone inside Kursk might have preserved resources. Instead, the campaign has resulted in significantly higher losses in both personnel and equipment.
As of May 2025, Ukraine had lost 994 confirmed vehicles in Kursk Oblast, compared with 791 on the Russian side. To put that in perspective, on the Avdiivka–Pokrovsk front, Ukrainian losses stood at 679 vehicles versus 2,352 for Russia.
With Western military aid dwindling- U.S. support reduced for political reasons and Europe unable to supply adequate materiel, and Ukrainian forces struggling to replenish personnel, the scale of losses sustained in Kursk is nothing but a serious operational-strategic misjudgment at the senior level.
As I have pointed from the outset, Russia was ultimately able to concentrate sufficient forces to retake Kursk without significantly weakening its positions in Pokrovsk. Only very limited Russian units were redeployed from the Pokrovsk direction, while Ukraine shifted tens of thousands of troops, leaving that front undermanned and accelerating Russia's gains there.
Unless the loss ratio begins to shift decisively in Ukraine's favor, Russian forces are likely to continue advancing, both into Sumy Oblast and, gradually, toward Dnipro. Yet the Ukrainian military and political leadership at times appears more focused on performative media operations than on articulating a long-term strategic vision for the battlefield beyond few months
Seems the Kursk operation soaked up a lot more personnel and equipment that UA could afford to lose for such small 'gains', and that the result is the situation near Sumy is getting more tenuous by the day.