Russia-Ukraine War Politics Thread Mk. 2

No shit, and yet they are on third year of fighting for Ukraine...
Yes because controlling Ukraine is extremely important to the Russian state
It would make sense, but making sense in those regards does not track with past decisions of the Russian leadership.

One thing is that in terms of industrial capacity to capture, ease of integration, and plain prestige in Russian population's understanding, western reaches of the former Russian empire hold considerably more value than the stans, who are considered shitholes, and in many cases rightfully so.

Also the already had an "adventure" with Kazakhstan that ended mysteriously, rumors are China told them to scoot off.
*sigh* its impossible to actually discuss international relations with people as emotional as you. We get it, Russia is not only evil but retarded and incompetent and will surely collapse any day now.
 
Yes because controlling Ukraine is extremely important to the Russian state
One would think that not being in an unwinnable war would be even more important to the Russian state, but here we are...
*sigh* its impossible to actually discuss international relations with people as emotional as you. We get it, Russia is not only evil but retarded and incompetent and will surely collapse any day now.
It is impossible to actually discuss international relations with people as delusional as you.
See? I can be like that too, so what was the point of this?
Talk about being emotional and having to do twitter shitpost grade parodies of me, LMAO, get a grip.
 
One would think that not being in an unwinnable war would be even more important to the Russian state, but here we are...

It is impossible to actually discuss international relations with people as delusional as you.
See? I can be like that too, so what was the point of this?
Talk about being emotional and having to do twitter shitpost grade parodies of me, LMAO, get a grip.
You are too emotionally invested in this conflict to have a conversation with, you are so deluded you can think of no rational reason why Russia would invade Ukraine and remain in that conflict despite there being quite literally centuries of analysis on the subject matter. There is nothing to be said to you and nothing to gain from entertaining your idea that Russia is ran by idiots who only make bad moves because they're stupid.

International relations seeks to understand the logic behind nation states and it is widely accepted in that space that states are rational actors with few to no exceptions, they make strategic choices to further goals and a nuanced calculus goes into every decision. So no I'm not the one who is delusional it is you who is high on one sided propaganda and can not accept that wars happen in the real world for complex reasons. You /want/ Russia to be retarded and to attack NATO while its weak because it would result in your nations historical enemy being crushed finally, but that doesn't mean its the kind of choice an actual nation state would make.
 
Thing is, Kazakhstan woukd have been a better ti engage with now, but they went with Ukraine. No one in Russia really cares about the stans
 
The Stans absolutely would have made for an easier target, and I myself would have started with those. But, as said, the former Western Reaches of the Empire hold more attraction in the eyes and minds of the Russians, so they’ve gone and wasted their strength there instead.
 
You are too emotionally invested in this conflict to have a conversation with,
Likewise.
you are so deluded you can think of no rational reason why Russia would invade Ukraine and remain in that conflict despite there being quite literally centuries of analysis on the subject matter.
If you claim that the rationality of Russian leadership's behavior is unquestionable, well, how can this be discussed with you?
There is nothing to be said to you and nothing to gain from entertaining your idea that Russia is ran by idiots who only make bad moves because they're stupid.
Yet we have a quite decisive proof that Russian leadership makes major mistakes, as evidenced by an ongoing major world event.
Be it stupidity, greed, delusion or miscalculation, they do make bad moves sometimes, and there has to be a reason for the bad moves.
International relations seeks to understand the logic behind nation states and it is widely accepted in that space that states are rational actors with few to no exceptions, they make strategic choices to further goals and a nuanced calculus goes into every decision.
That's the theory. Yet there are countless examples of them not doing so in reality, and we don't live in theory...
Including the state leadership themselves having divergent interests with what one could consider state interests, or how different cliques and cultures may have slightly different ideas on what is and isn't rational.
So no I'm not the one who is delusional it is you who is high on one sided propaganda and can not accept that wars happen in the real world for complex reasons. You /want/ Russia to be retarded and to attack NATO
Again, this is not something *i want*, this is dogma you want to push on me despite recent events showing Russia looking at some quite different patterns of action. Ever heard about hybrid warfare?
And remember when Russia did a fucking nerve gas attack on the territory of a NATO country and nuclear power?
Again, you are insisting on everyone taking some theories you like at face value despite some Russian decisions from the recent decade having made some very clear holes in those theories.
Such an act would be downright unthinkable to western countries and many others living up to the "rational actor" standard, due to the incredibly high risk and escalation potential, while not even having that good reason for it, yet Russia did it, and i can think of a small bunch of other countries that would also at least consider similar moves.
So, consider this as a hint as to how to calibrate the predicted "risk sensitiveness" of Russian leadership, because it clearly is not the same as yours.
while its weak because it would result in your nations historical enemy being crushed finally, but that doesn't mean its the kind of choice an actual nation state would make.
Your fanfiction of how i see the Russian conflict and why is cute, but its also fucking dumb, please stop writing it. 1 out of 10 mindreading, you should definitely ask your instructor for your money back.
But then again, you seem to be out of date with the whole hybrid warfare thing, so you may be imagining that if people say Russia will pick fights with NATO members, they mean something like 2022 Ukraine, while people who aren't out of date expect something more like Russia trying to pull something more like 2014 Ukraine except in Baltics.
 
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Likewise.

If you claim that the rationality of Russian leadership's behavior is unquestionable, well, how can this be discussed with you?

Yet we have a quite decisive proof that Russian leadership makes major mistakes, as evidenced by an ongoing major world event.
Be it stupidity, greed, delusion or miscalculation, they do make bad moves sometimes, and there has to be a reason for the bad moves.

That's the theory. Yet there are countless examples of them not doing so in reality, and we don't live in theory...
Including the state leadership themselves having divergent interests with what one could consider state interests.

Again, this is not something *i want*, this is dogma you want to push on me despite recent events showing Russia looking at some quite different patterns of action. Ever heard about hybrid warfare?
And remember when Russia did a fucking nerve gas attack on the territory of a NATO country and nuclear power?
Again, you are insisting on everyone taking some theories you like at face value despite some Russian decisions from the recent decade having made some very clear holes in those theories.
Such an act would be downright unthinkable to western countries and many others living up to the "rational actor" standard, due to the incredibly high risk and escalation potential, while not even having that good reason for it, yet Russia did it, and i can think of a small bunch of other countries that would also at least consider similar moves.
So, consider this as a hint as to how to calibrate the predicted "risk sensitiveness" of Russian leadership, because it clearly is not the same as yours.

Your fanfiction of how i see the Russian conflict and why is cute, but its also fucking dumb, please stop writing it. 1 out of 10 mindreading, you should definitely ask your instructor for your money back.
But then again, you seem to be out of date with the whole hybrid warfare thing, so you may be imagining that if people say Russia will pick fights with NATO members, they mean something like 2022 Ukraine, while people who aren't out of date expect something more like Russia trying to pull something more like 2014 Ukraine except in Baltics.
2014 is how they would start, 2022 would be phase 2 of it.
 
Yup. And phase 2 may or may not look the same. I do have "Russia trying to get own buddies in control of a country they want to take over and using them to politically make a country leave NATO so that they can send "brotherly aid" in relative safety" on my bingo card.
I have that and suwalki gap on mine
 
You are too emotionally invested in this conflict to have a conversation with, you are so deluded you can think of no rational reason why Russia would invade Ukraine and remain in that conflict despite there being quite literally centuries of analysis on the subject matter. There is nothing to be said to you and nothing to gain from entertaining your idea that Russia is ran by idiots who only make bad moves because they're stupid.
They had rational reasons to invade - problem is,if they were lead by ignorant like me,they would take Kiev in 6 months.Yet,they failed to do so.
They are either idiots,or have hidden agenda to start war and not win it.
I Seriously start thinking,that Putin is China plant.and did it to made Moscov China vassal state.
International relations seeks to understand the logic behind nation states and it is widely accepted in that space that states are rational actors with few to no exceptions, they make strategic choices to further goals and a nuanced calculus goes into every decision. So no I'm not the one who is delusional it is you who is high on one sided propaganda and can not accept that wars happen in the real world for complex reasons. You /want/ Russia to be retarded and to attack NATO while its weak because it would result in your nations historical enemy being crushed finally, but that doesn't mean its the kind of choice an actual nation state would make.
They are not our historical enemy.That was Russia,and soviets killed it,and then fall.What we have now is KGB mafia ruling over soviet people.Poland do not have problems with them.

But,they act as if they want to lost,and that is problem - becouse they could not be idiots.KGB do not welcomed them,that it mean:
1.They are China plants - and i do not want China on our border.
2.They want to provoke bigger war to take over Europe using some hidden army which they could have gathered in their hidden underground cities - and i do not want that,too.
 
What reasons?
USA widraw from Afganistan,and Biden agreement to NS2.For Moscov it was weakness,and they thought that they could use USA weakness to take back soviet countries,including Poland.
In 2021 Lagrow demanded widraw NATO troops from Poland,and polish troops need Moscov agreement to made any defence work east of Vistula river.

I do not blane Putin,to be honest,after Biden fucks i would decide that USA are too weak to fight,too,and go on conqest.
If i were in Putin shoes.
And,if he was smart,he would win - USA in beginning want evecuate Zelensky,not send weapons,and started sending modern weapons only after few months.

Either he is idiot,which is impossible becouse KGB do not welcome idiots,China plant,or it is part of genius KGB plan to take over Europe.And no,i am not joking here - KGB are dudes who are perfectly happy with killing few millions of their own people,if it gave them more power.
 
If they weren't intending to be hostile, why would Ukraine joining Nato be a reason to invade?

Would you accept a Chinese Naval base in Hawaii or Halifax? How about Russian airbases in southern ontario or New Brunswick? Would he UK accept it if an independant scotland allowed the russians to base submarines in scapa flow?

It threatens Sevastopol, and Russia's access to the black sea, puts hostile military bases, aircraft and missiles within hours of moscow, and provides a staging base for spies, agents and saboteurs. Russia has stated over and over again that Ukraine is existentially important to its security, and NATO has refused to listen.
 
What reasons?
Begin the restoration of the Russian Empire, bring land with some of the richest soil in the world under their control alongside its natural resources, improve strategic position, assert dominion over what was a rather ancient part of Russia that they believe should be reunited with the “Rodina” etc.

That’s the logic of it anyway. A quick conquest of Ukraine would have been quite beneficial to Russia…but it wasn’t a quick conquest…and they badly underestimated the diplomatic reaction to it.

If the goal was to prevent “NATO expansionism” (which wouldn’t have been a problem if three centuries of Moscow’s thuggery hadn’t driven Eastern Europe into America’s arms), that has backfired spectacularly with the accession of Sweden and Finland.
 
Would you accept a Chinese Naval base in Hawaii or Halifax? How about Russian airbases in southern ontario or New Brunswick? Would he UK accept it if an independant scotland allowed the russians to base submarines in scapa flow?

It threatens Sevastopol, and Russia's access to the black sea, puts hostile military bases, aircraft and missiles within hours of moscow, and provides a staging base for spies, agents and saboteurs. Russia has stated over and over again that Ukraine is existentially important to its security, and NATO has refused to listen.
1. You're listing places in the territory of the nations you're asking if would 'allow' foreign military bases in those locations.

2. NATO already shares a border with Russia, and has done so for years, up at the Baltic states. During the Cold War, the USSR had direct land borders with the NATO nations, and since then, Russian revanchism has steadily pushed more soviet states into the arms of NATO, entirely of their own volition, with the attack on Ukraine pushing Sweden and Finland in.

3. "How dare these people try to protect themselves from me!" is not a sane justification for invading another nation preemptively. After what Russia did in 2014, why wouldn't Ukraine want to join NATO? Russia had already proven it was willing to use military force to seize Ukrainian territory.

No matter how much Russia tries to claim that it's acting in 'self defense' in some parts of its propaganda, every war that Russia has been in since WWII ended, it has been the aggressor.

That track record should mean something to you.
 

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