Russia gathering forces near Ukraine Border

Zachowon

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It definitely is. But is it the main goal, a secondary goal, or opportunistic advantage made out of an unavoidable problem?
"Much less" is very different from "enough to gain surprise". Perhaps Russian internet would not be guessing it. But would that work well enough to fool US SIGINT despite the area in question certainly being of interest to it specifically for that reason?

And then there are the obvious follow up questions:
What is Russia expecting to achieve through this pressure initiative, and what is it going to do if Ukraine does not yield what is expected?
Is it opportunistic saber rattling in hope that Ukraine gets foolishly intimidated to give something up in next round of negotiations out of fear, or a last attempt to get the objectives of a military action without having to pay all the costs of taking said military action?
No the couldn't fool US SIGINT
 

Marduk

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No the couldn't fool US SIGINT
Any SIGINT can be fooled, the question is only for how long.
My point exactly. They could possibly fool NATO SIGINT for a little time with some rapid reaction forces, but the sheer scale of what they are doing and in turn, time needed for it, mean its just impossible. No one can just hide whole divisions for a week or few, and certainly not in a region that is under particular observation at the time.
Hence the next best thing they can do is just the usual - call it a military exercise.
 

Husky_Khan

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Vladimir Putin shared some insights on potential foreign meddling over Russia's apparent 'redlines.'


Vladimir Putin said:
“I hope that no one dares to cross the red line in respect to Russia, and we will determine where it is in each specific case. Those who organize any provocations threatening our core security interests will regret their deeds more than they regretted anything for a long time."

“We want good relations, and we really don’t want to burn the bridges. But if some mistake our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intend to burn or even blow up those bridges themselves, Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, quick and tough.”

In other news, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered to meet Putin in the Donbass Region for talks, stating:

“Once, the president of the Russian Federation said ‘if a fight is inevitable, you need to strike first.’ But in my opinion, today every leader must understand that a fight cannot be inevitable when we’re not talking about back alleys and hooligans, but a real war and millions of human lives. And unlike in a fight, in a war, all sides lose.”
 

Aaron Fox

Well-known member
I call bullshit on that one
It isn't bullshit I'm afraid. Hell, we had a literal test run of what Russia did in 2016 in the Baltics years earlier, and people literally up and ignored it. Got at least one Baltic state in their back pocket thanks to that if I remember right. Historically, Russia has always considered the Baltic States and Ukraine as its clay (for, oh, the better part of a millennium if I remember correctly) and no one else's and has been fiercely adamant in keeping it that way.
 

CurtisLemay

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Unless Ukraine is willing to concede to all of Putin's terms? I don't see how they avoid war?
 

CurtisLemay

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Aaron Fox

Well-known member
I doubt.
Let's see what happens
[prepares for worst-case scenario]

I literally live just down the way from a railyard, a few miles from Malestrom AFB, an international airport, and live in the 'red zone' for nuclear war (i.e. so much radiation that you'll die within 24 hours of radiation poisoning)... so yeah.
As do I...joke going around is "3rd Shock Army is backing up to get a running start."
Eh, given the players involved... I would keep the jokes until after it's all over.
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
I'd like to think Putin is keeping Sun-Tzu in mind, the bit about appearing strong where you are weak, and building up a large presence slowly and obviously specifically to create the impression he might attack when really he can't for international relations reasons. That's also backed up by classic Russian maskirovka strategy.

On the other hand, Putin has shown generally a wild disregard for foreign opinion and he clearly has alien priorities and values. Further, the pathetic international response to the Crimea issue can only embolden him. FFS, last time they made a grab for it England at least had the common sense to stop them. :mad:
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
a wild disregard for foreign opinion and he clearly has alien priorities and values.
In other words, kind of like USA, but on smaller scale.

FFS, last time they made a grab for it England at least had the common sense to stop them.
Crimean war wasn't about Crimea (which Russia held for decades by then) but about modern day Bulgaria and Romania, it was part of long term plan of Britain to uphold the Ottoman empire.
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
In other words, kind of like USA, but on smaller scale.
You think America doesn't care about foreign opinion? That is a novel take.

Crimean war wasn't about Crimea (which Russia held for decades by then) but about modern day Bulgaria and Romania, it was part of long term plan of Britain to uphold the Ottoman empire.
And, the end result was Russia didn't get Crimea, because England stopped them, because they cared enough and had the stomach to act on international issues. So...?
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
You think America doesn't care about foreign opinion? That is a novel take.
My bad, I must have missed how they cancelled the invasion of Iraq over it being unpopular outside of USA,

And, the end result was Russia didn't get Crimea, because England stopped them, because they cared enough and had the stomach to act on international issues. So...?
Look up books or at least Wikipedia, Russia retained possession of Crimea (and Ukraine), it was only assigned to Ukraine SSR during Kruschev reign. The result of war was Turkey retaining control of Bulgaria and Romania, until liberated by Russians in 1877/78. Also it's pretty rude to overlook the role of France in this war, afterall they did the most of the fighting in Crimea.
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
My bad, I must have missed how they cancelled the invasion of Iraq over it being unpopular outside of USA.
No, you just didn't read. I'm sure you can though, try harder. There's a difference between caring about something, and being entirely governed by it. Though, if you really want to equate a war that had mixed reception with say, brazenly sending assassins to another country to whack a political target, or arresting the leader of domestic opposition, maybe I give you too much credit.

Look up books or at least Wikipedia, Russia retained possession of Crimea (and Ukraine), it was only assigned to Ukraine SSR during Kruschev reign. The result of war was Turkey retaining control of Bulgaria and Romania, until liberated by Russians in 1877/78. Also it's pretty rude to overlook the role of France in this war, afterall they did the most of the fighting in Crimea.
Russia suffered a humiliating defeat, and was forced to give up their militarisation and imperialist interests in that direction. Also, it was pretty rude of France to pull the cheese eating surrender monkey routine and quit before achieving the real endgame.
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
There's a difference between caring about something, and being entirely governed by it.
So in other words USA and Russia are not that different

Though, if you really want to equate a war that had mixed reception
Never thought you were a neocon, well you learn something new every day.

brazenly sending assassins to another country to whack a political target
You are right, sending drones is much more civilized.

or arresting the leader of domestic opposition
Yeah, those are stupid, Navalny makes enough idiocies to make himself unpalatable to majority of Russians, it's various prosecution (and money from the West) that are keeping him still somewhat relevant.

Russia suffered a humiliating defeat, and was forced to give up their militarisation and imperialist interests in that direction.
And people of Bulgaria and Romania got to to enjoy being massacred and enslaved by Ottomans for the next twenty years, until Russia resumed it's militarization and imperialism in that direction.

Also, it was pretty rude of France to pull the cheese eating surrender monkey routine and quit before achieving the real endgame.
I would advise you to watch Blackadder and read some Terry Pratchet, because your jokes are really poor by the standards of this forum. And our standards aren't all that high to begin with.
 

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