Poland copies New Zealand regorms after 1989.

[ATP]

I just end reading "Na antypodach wolności" by Tomasz Cukiernik/my translation - on antipodes of freedom/ about economical reforms in New Zealand,and how polish reform lacked compared to them.
Author proved,that if we do not joined UE and copied New Zealand reforms,poles would be in 2013 twice as rich as germans,and more numerous/more then 50 millions by my estimates/

So,how it would change History from 1989 ? let assume,that we joined NATO,but not UE.

P.S Author proves,that every country which follow N.Z would be much richer and had bigger population - so you could add another country which followed N.Z,as many as you wont.And how it would change History.

 

[Buba]

Poland could had grown faster after 1989 than it did OTL. But let us not go overboard - twice as rich as Germany is ASB.
In 1990 Poland had an economy of c. 200B USD (exact figure depends on what Dollars one uses, but that's the ballpark - not much larger than Belgium). That was 30 years ago. Doubling every ten years - that's what 7% per annum amounts to - Poland would had octupled its economy to c. 1,5B USD - that's Brazil, Spain, South Korea, Russia, Australia, Canada territory, far cry from Germany and its roughly 4B. Let alone the 8B needed to be double that of Germany ...
Nevertheless that'd be 2,5 times the current i.e. c.600B USD Polish GDP.

As to population - c.50M is IMO "no sweat" territory - simply have less emigration and more and earlier immigration. I'm not sure if the plunge to the disastrously low birthrate of today can be remedied, though. The "babies per woman" index went below the replacement rate c. 1990. And kept on going down ...
Less emigration alone would had pushed the population to around 41-42M. To that add the babies these people would have had.

No EU but NATO and economic policies providing that 7% p/a growth rate - my opinion is that it would need an efficient dictatorship, something like the Franco or Pinochet or Park Chung-hee or - even better - Lee Kuan Yew. I am not sure if a direct copy of Kiwiland's policies would had worked due to difference between the countries - much stronger in 1990 than today - but faster growth was possible.

I am not sure if achieving such a high economic growth rate is possible without close ties to Russia.
"No EU, let us tie ourselves economically with Russia and PROFIT!" was on of Korwin-Mikke's ideas I read in the 1990s

 

[ATP]

NZ had no dictator,so we do not need one,too.And with 10% per annum/just as China/ we would be as rich as author said.
NZ do not needed Russia,too.
According to the author,our main problem were our commies which keep stealing ,coruption,and turning Poland into economical colony.I think,he is right.

 

[ATP]

Author made numbers about alternate Poland on his own,but for another countries he take from ""Living with Leviathan.Public spending.Taxes and Economic Performance by David B.Smith. /from british economical institute/
According to that,if other countries started with NZ stule economy in 1960,in 2005 they would have:
1.Sweden - 331% GDP
2.Belgium - 278% GDP
3.Switzerland - 313 % GDP
4.France - 246% GDP
5.Spain and Japan - 232% GDP
Italy-204% GDP
USA - 137% GDP

So,if somebody want say what those countries/and Poland/ with bigger money could do,please post here.
Of course,european countries could not join UE for that.

 

[ATP]

So,i made short scenarios for each country:
1.Sweden - they are richer,but so what? Unless....they made alliances with countries in Central Europe after soviet fall.Then they could have their own political and economical zone there.Or save South Vietnam in 1975.
2.Belgium - they would not keep Kongo as colony,but could as vassal state.Without them,UE is weaker.They could try get client states in Central Europe,too.
3.Switzerland - since they do not engage in politics,nothing change.
4.France - no UE or so weak that it not matter.France still superpower,with more client states in Africa.Could save South Vietnal in 1975,Laos and Camodia too.After soviets fall,they take Central Europe as client states.
They are third power world now,and rule their own mini-empire in Europe,Africa and Asia.
5.Spain - Franco leave good successor,they are superpower now.Probably save portugal african colonies from commies in 1975,maybe others,too.
Now they are nuclear power with allies in Central Europe,Africa and maybe Asia.
6.Japan.They do not engage politically,so nothing change till 1992.After that - they could create their own economical empire in Central Europe.
7.Italy - in 1988 they planned to create Hexagonalle/central europe states union/ ,but were to weak and germans destroyed that.Now,it could work.
8.USA - No difference becouse after 2008 Obama would fuck USA just like in OTL.

Poland - it could be done,only if soviets made deal with Solidarność in 1980.They considered that,but ultimately choosed Jaruzelski.
But assume,that Solidarność is ruling since 1980 - they would copy New Zealand,becouse reform there was made by socialist and worker party.
Poland now would be leader of Central Europe,which would not belong to UE,maybe nuclear power.Certainly strong enough to defend themselves without USA help.

That is all,i think.

 

[ATP]

Max version.ALL MENTIONED COUNTRIES GET BETTER ECONOMY.And they are cooperating.
Result -
1.France and Belgium do not lost colonies in Africa,they are all good allies.They do not treat them bad.
2.Spain take over portugal colonies in Africa.
3.In 1975,France save South Vietnam,vassal state,too.Laos and Cambodia saved,too
4.Ethiopia saved from commies.
5.All central european countries allied states/Poland made reforms,too - so more strenght/,the same goeas for ex-yugoslavia except Serbia.Belaruss taken,too.
6.Japan with many countries to sell products never get economical decline.
7.Rhodesia and South Africa never fell,client states.
8.Support Brasil/with normal presidents,not leftists/

Now - powerfull block dominating world.Russia without Belaruss,Germany weaker even then Poland and China made bussiness partner - they were promised Siberia if they behave,so no opposition there.USA get bidenized as OTL.