Plausibility Check: If no Hitler/Nazis, could Stalin eventually launch a large-scale Soviet invasion of China and Korea to expel Japan from there?

[WolfBear]

If there is no Hitler/Nazis in power in Germany, could Stalin eventually launch a large-scale Soviet invasion of China and Korea to expel Japan from there? The logic behind this would be to install more friendly regimes in both China and Korea and also to weaken regional rival Japan by permanently expelling it from these regions.

Would this actually be a good strategy for the Soviet Union? What about after it will complete whatever military modernization and military buildup it decides to do? If there is no Hitler/Nazis in power in Germany and thus no opportunity for territorial revision in Europe, might the Soviet Union instead gamble on a bold power play in the Far East? And what exactly would other countries' reactions to a Russo-Japanese War Version 2.0 going to be? Are they going to be pro-Russia, pro-Japan, or neutral?

Any thoughts on all of this?

 

[History Learner]

It's a good question; the IJA got the better of the Red Army in 1934, 1938 and achieved a draw in 1939. The logistics certainly favor the Japanese, given the relative proximity of their homeland and the railway issue for the Soviets. If, however, Moscow is freed of the situation in Europe, they could expedite the railway expansions necessary to support the force sizes needed to fight Japan head on. Another issue is that, without the German issue, would the Anglo-Americans be willing to materially support the Japanese to contain the Soviets?

 

[WolfBear]

Another issue is that, without the German issue, would the Anglo-Americans be willing to materially support the Japanese to contain the Soviets?

Depends on whether they think that Japanese domination of China is better than Soviet domination of China, I suppose.

 

[raharris1973]

Another issue is that, without the German issue, would the Anglo-Americans be willing to materially support the Japanese to contain the Soviets?

Not any time fast, and not until it already appears the Japanese are losing badly. Because of how badly the Japanese are seen to have been treating the Chinese. It will appear at first like the Japanese are getting their just desserts. It is only afterward, when Japanese oppression and atrocity over the land is yesterday's news, and the worry is what the USSR will do with its power and influence, that the USSR becomes the main worry.

So after a good beating on the mainland, the Anglo-Americans would probably come to feel an invasion of Japan (too hard to do anyway) would be going too far, and sympathize with its home defense.

Depends on whether they think that Japanese domination of China is better than Soviet domination of China, I suppose.

They won't really have any justification to believe Japanese domination is better until it is gone. The awfulness of Japan in China has been all over global media for years. That of the Soviet Union has been much more covered up and propagandized. The Soviets haven't even attacked any small plucky nations (like Finland) or extinguished others (like the Baltics) in a no Nazis world.

 

[WolfBear]

Not any time fast, and not until it already appears the Japanese are losing badly. Because of how badly the Japanese are seen to have been treating the Chinese. It will appear at first like the Japanese are getting their just desserts. It is only afterward, when Japanese oppression and atrocity over the land is yesterday's news, and the worry is what the USSR will do with its power and influence, that the USSR becomes the main worry.

So after a good beating on the mainland, the Anglo-Americans would probably come to feel an invasion of Japan (too hard to do anyway) would be going too far, and sympathize with its home defense.



They won't really have any justification to believe Japanese domination is better until it is gone. The awfulness of Japan in China has been all over global media for years. That of the Soviet Union has been much more covered up and propagandized. The Soviets haven't even attacked any small plucky nations (like Finland) or extinguished others (like the Baltics) in a no Nazis world.

Reasonable analysis, Rob. And Yeah, the West sometimes sugarcoated its coverage of the Soviet Union, such as with the New York Times' coverage of the Holodomor in Ukraine in the early 1930s:

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