D
Deleted member 88
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An offer of peace by Egypt has failed. The GNA seems to have the initiative now.
Not sure how widespread this is, but there have been anti regime protests in Syria again. Omar al Bashir fell after weathering the Arab Spring in 2011-2012.
Bashar al-Assad has exhausted his resources and now relies on playing his allies against each other-who have sunk a lot of money and blood into keeping him around.
If a renewed wave of unrest in Syria occurs-I can see the Russians, and potentially the Iranians deciding to drop Assad and let some military transitional leadership take over. Deciding that more fighting is just not worth it and they(Russia and Iran) have bigger problems at the moment. I doubt we'd see another civil war. If only because even the people out on the streets now have neither the backing or resources to mount an uprising again.
However in Sudan's case-the rising cost of food, alongside divisions in the regime, and the fact that the demonstrators had more or less coalesced behind civil society middle class respectables, meant Bashir was unable to crush them. At least not due to the fact that the desperation due to food costs had made the people willing to endure the police and Janjaweed and not retreat or break, even if a thousand people got killed. They couldn't afford to lose.
Once that became clear-is when Sudan's military brass turned on Omar al-Bashir.
If a similar situation happens in Syria I suspect his foreign backers will weigh the costs of supporting him with no hope of getting any return on investment vs cutting him loose and doing the bare minimum to at least get a government that won't be pro America or western.
Not sure how widespread this is, but there have been anti regime protests in Syria again. Omar al Bashir fell after weathering the Arab Spring in 2011-2012.
Bashar al-Assad has exhausted his resources and now relies on playing his allies against each other-who have sunk a lot of money and blood into keeping him around.
If a renewed wave of unrest in Syria occurs-I can see the Russians, and potentially the Iranians deciding to drop Assad and let some military transitional leadership take over. Deciding that more fighting is just not worth it and they(Russia and Iran) have bigger problems at the moment. I doubt we'd see another civil war. If only because even the people out on the streets now have neither the backing or resources to mount an uprising again.
However in Sudan's case-the rising cost of food, alongside divisions in the regime, and the fact that the demonstrators had more or less coalesced behind civil society middle class respectables, meant Bashir was unable to crush them. At least not due to the fact that the desperation due to food costs had made the people willing to endure the police and Janjaweed and not retreat or break, even if a thousand people got killed. They couldn't afford to lose.
Once that became clear-is when Sudan's military brass turned on Omar al-Bashir.
If a similar situation happens in Syria I suspect his foreign backers will weigh the costs of supporting him with no hope of getting any return on investment vs cutting him loose and doing the bare minimum to at least get a government that won't be pro America or western.
