Alternate History Japan Stays Neutral In WW2
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Val the Moofia Boss
Well-known member
Americans don't barge into Japan and turn them into a vassal state, causing the Japanese leadership to want to stop being and little fish and become a big fish and emulate the other empires.
If they never invade China - yes.Especially,if they found oil in Manchuria - they almost did it in OTL.
USA try hard to provoke them in OTL,but,if Japan have oil,then they could laugh at USA embargo.
Smart thing would be attacking soviets to retake Siberia,which they hold in 1923,and then made peace with soviets.
Gold from Magadan would help - just like pictures of mountain of corpses from soviet death camps there.
raharris1973
Well-known member
And nobody else does either afterwards
sillygoose
Well-known member
That's a good reason for them to stay neutral. The trick is how given how the IJA was out of control. Not sure if it would even be possible, but assuming there was a firmer hand over the IJA's leadership then it is entirely possible that the Soviets and Japanese then get into a war over their border disputes in Manchuria that escalated in the late 1930s:
Soviet–Japanese border conflicts - Wikipedia
Without China to worry about there is every reason to assume both sides would escalate into war.
The Battle of Lake Khasan could very well escalate into something more serious:
Battle of Lake Khasan - Wikipedia
IOTL like in 1939 Japan ended the escalation by asking for peace because the OTL war in China required the resources necessary to fight the Soviets without full mobilization. Without the war in China there is no reason for Japan to backdown given their goals in launching the operation IOTL. Given how incompetently the Soviets fought an escalation would be a disaster for them. I could see them getting a bloody nose and mouth as a result and having to back down instead with the Soviets likely planning an offensive eventually, much like a Khalkin Gol. I doubt a full scale war would happen, but things would get pretty ugly for a while. Japan would likely turn to Germany even sooner as an ally to ensure the Soviets thought twice about messing with them.
For the wider world the Soviets are likely to be more distracted in the East, with potential consequences to events in Europe. Perhaps they seek an understanding with Germany sooner. In the case of China it would continue to modernize and probably write off Manchuria while wanting the Soviets and Japanese to tie each other up and leave China alone. Germany and China likely stay trading partners, which was highly lucrative to both sides and perhaps China even ends up a German quasi-ally as a result.
China-Nazi Germany relations - Wikipedia
IOTL China and Germany only broke their connection due to the Japanese invasion that forced Germany to pick sides and captured all of China's ports so that they couldn't export minerals as payment for goods. However if that doesn't happen then Germany and China continue to trade and Germany gets lots of Tungsten, Tin, and Antimony, the last of which they sold on the open market for double what they were paying for it due to the nature of the trade deal they worked out, a pretty important source of foreign exchange income that had been cut off largely by 1938 IOTL. Depending on the relations between Germany and the USSR in 1939 with the potential problems between the USSR and Japan, like IOTL the Soviets could let the Germans and Chinese trade via the Trans-Siberian RR exactly as they did with Japan IOTL. So until June 1941 the trade wouldn't actually be cut off due to the blockade of Europe by the British.
Though hardly a game changer for the war that still has significant impacts.
Not sure how Japan would stay out of the German-Soviet war ITTL though, especially without any other war for them to worry about or bad relations with the US. Taking out Russia at that time would be a major geo-strategic interest for Japan for a variety of reasons.
Taking Siberia in 1941,and then making peace.It could work for Japan.That's a good reason for them to stay neutral. The trick is how given how the IJA was out of control. Not sure if it would even be possible, but assuming there was a firmer hand over the IJA's leadership then it is entirely possible that the Soviets and Japanese then get into a war over their border disputes in Manchuria that escalated in the late 1930s:
Soviet–Japanese border conflicts - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Without China to worry about there is every reason to assume both sides would escalate into war.
The Battle of Lake Khasan could very well escalate into something more serious:
Battle of Lake Khasan - Wikipedia
IOTL like in 1939 Japan ended the escalation by asking for peace because the OTL war in China required the resources necessary to fight the Soviets without full mobilization. Without the war in China there is no reason for Japan to backdown given their goals in launching the operation IOTL. Given how incompetently the Soviets fought an escalation would be a disaster for them. I could see them getting a bloody nose and mouth as a result and having to back down instead with the Soviets likely planning an offensive eventually, much like a Khalkin Gol. I doubt a full scale war would happen, but things would get pretty ugly for a while. Japan would likely turn to Germany even sooner as an ally to ensure the Soviets thought twice about messing with them.
For the wider world the Soviets are likely to be more distracted in the East, with potential consequences to events in Europe. Perhaps they seek an understanding with Germany sooner. In the case of China it would continue to modernize and probably write off Manchuria while wanting the Soviets and Japanese to tie each other up and leave China alone. Germany and China likely stay trading partners, which was highly lucrative to both sides and perhaps China even ends up a German quasi-ally as a result.
China-Nazi Germany relations - Wikipedia
IOTL China and Germany only broke their connection due to the Japanese invasion that forced Germany to pick sides and captured all of China's ports so that they couldn't export minerals as payment for goods. However if that doesn't happen then Germany and China continue to trade and Germany gets lots of Tungsten, Tin, and Antimony, the last of which they sold on the open market for double what they were paying for it due to the nature of the trade deal they worked out, a pretty important source of foreign exchange income that had been cut off largely by 1938 IOTL. Depending on the relations between Germany and the USSR in 1939 with the potential problems between the USSR and Japan, like IOTL the Soviets could let the Germans and Chinese trade via the Trans-Siberian RR exactly as they did with Japan IOTL. So until June 1941 the trade wouldn't actually be cut off due to the blockade of Europe by the British.
Though hardly a game changer for the war that still has significant impacts.
Not sure how Japan would stay out of the German-Soviet war ITTL though, especially without any other war for them to worry about or bad relations with the US. Taking out Russia at that time would be a major geo-strategic interest for Japan for a variety of reasons.
sillygoose
Well-known member
Buba
A total creep
I wonder about Japan, pissed off by Hitler betraying the Anti-Komintern Pact, becoming friendly to the UK in 1940. Selling weapons during the Invasion Panic, etc.
There is a window of opportunity between the fall of France and Barbarossa. So maybe even grabbing FIC is still possible? Britain bought off by assistance not supporting KMT China?
FDR unhappy, true, which might torpedo the whole idea as Churchill deems US support more important.
There is a window of opportunity between the fall of France and Barbarossa. So maybe even grabbing FIC is still possible? Britain bought off by assistance not supporting KMT China?
FDR unhappy, true, which might torpedo the whole idea as Churchill deems US support more important.
Yep.But,he still need pretext.In OTL he must made Japan attack him after oil embargo = but,if they found oil in Manchuria,that trick would not work.
Yes,FDR wanted save commies - but coud not openly start war in the name of it.
I remember some Gate story on fanfiction.net,when Itami meet japaneese army from 1940 which never invade China,beaten soviets in 1939,and supported England sending few fighter units during battle of England,and mechanized dyvision to Africa.
Pity, story died.
sillygoose
Well-known member
Britain wouldn't do anything to piss off the US and the US was explicitly hostile to Japan. That is what ended the Anglo-Japanese treaty IOTL. So regardless of what Japan wants the UK basically has to remain hostile to Japan. Still given the conflict with the Soviets and potential hostility of the US I don't see how the Japanese can abandon the alliance with Germany no matter how pissed they are about the anti-comintern treaty.
There are more ways than just that to poke Japan. Also don't forget that it wasn't simply oil, but also steel and various other things, including rubber, hence the Japanese invasion of the DEI.
Not quite, but he could do lots of things to provoke it.
You have a point - but,in this case,Japan could simply attack Siberia in 1941.Soviets could not defend it,and Japan would found everytching except rubber there.
For rubber...ask England nicely,if they sell it,or prefer war.
Becouse american public would not go to war becouse japs beat commies,ot brits.They need attack on american soil for that.
sillygoose
Well-known member
This topic came up on Space Battles a while back. Resources extraction in the Soviet Far East was minimal. Lots of stuff was there, but the infrastructure largely didn't exist. More oil would have been available in Manchuria already. As to rubber if they work with the Germans more they could probably get a Buna rubber plant up and running, as IIRC the Germans helped them build a coal hydrogenation plant.
The Dutch had plenty of rubber in the East Indies, but they were strong armed by the US into not selling it.
The French though also had a lot in Vietnam/Indo-China, so if the Germans force them after 1940 they could sell rubber to Japan. Assuming the US doesn't freeze their accounts like IOTL 1941.
The US might go to war over Britain being defeated, that was something polling seemed to indicate, as they were very sensitive to a total British defeat, especially if the Japanese did it. However without fighting China there is no reason to go after the French colonies, so some things should be available for sale without having to fight Britain.
You're right about the American public vis-a-vis the Soviets. FDR and his financial backers however...
Point being though if Japan gets into a serious war with the Soviets some time in 1938-39 and Germany doesn't help it may not be the case that Japan joins in on the invasion of the USSR for reasons of spite. But if they do then likely the Soviets do fight for the Far East, just with what they have locally, which was no where near enough to stop Japan. Even if the US then does a total embargo of Japan like IOTL. Which means then the Soviets are screwed and will go down, even if that puts Japan on the war path with the US and/or Britain.
I could see FDR start building up in the Philippines to threaten Japan and entice them to attack and give casus belli.
I suppose then the question is what happens if things go really hot between Japan and the Soviets in 1938 or 39 before war in Europe happens. Looking up the anti-comintern treaty is looks like there is no obligation to declare war, just not aid the enemy in anyway. If a major war in the east happens though it may well mean the M-R Pact of 1939 is not politically possible. That would get interesting since the Soviets would really get depleted and locked down in the Far East and be probably unable to invade Finland or occupy more territories in the west or potentially even be able to invade East Poland assuming the war against Germany happens (I don't see why not ITTL though).
Things then get interesting, since Japan could probably win the war in the Far East, but it would get quite bloody if the Soviets reinforce from Europe. Then you could potentially see Stalin being willing to make massive concessions to Hitler to avoid a war, even if the invasion of Poland takes longer and is bloodier for the Germans without Soviet help. Just a matter of how long the war with Japan goes on for then. A rerun of the Russo-Japanese war with the same outcome is likely to result in a very paranoid and unstable Stalin who probably goes on another serious purge...which might mean the Great Purge just never stops and gets worse. Lots of implications to that.
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One important thing - soviets do not have means to send forces bigger then 1-2 armies to Siberia,which mean,they could not win on mountain of their dead soldiers.
So,Japan could win there,if they have better tanks,or good AT guns.
sillygoose
Well-known member
Even if not. This was before the T-34. Historically in 1938-39 the Soviets got the living shit kicked out of them against even lower quality Japanese formations. The Soviets just had numbers and didn't care about casualties. The T-34 was created specifically because of the experience at Kalkhin Gol.
If Japan rolled in heavy the Soviets were fucked. Mountain of corpses is very correct.
Except that one thing definitely worse than Soviet logistics were Japanese ones. There's very little to loot in eastern Siberia so any attempt at advancing to any great degree is going to cause huge casualties. Plus every unit pulled from China helps the KMT there while the clock is clicking on when the US imposes embagoes, which are likely to be even quicker with Japan expanding its attacks. Also if this is earlier, with a 39/40 invasion of Siberia that again takes pressure off the KMT and their allies and unlikely Japan will risk occupying FIC.
sillygoose
Well-known member
China isn't in the war ITTL.
Ah forgot that was a possible part of the OP.
sillygoose
Well-known member
No worries