Is China really a threat to the United States Hegemony?

[Zachowon]

According to this article

COVID-19 Knocks on American Hegemony

The coronavirus pandemic threatens U.S. hegemony in new, deadly ways.

carnegieendowment.org

It says COVID is knocking on the door of the US Hegemony and that China may replace the position as the Hegemon of the world.

How true is this?

 

[Deleted member 88]

First off the Chinese need the hard power to be able to displace the US. Better PR and economic clout are important, but so long as the USN controls the sea lanes, China will never displace the US.

 

[Lanmandragon]

Don't know but according to Reuters they're prepping for war. So fun times ahead at least.

 

[Tiamat]

Not to knock on the Orange Man here....but he's got the right mind about one thing but is also shooting himself in the foot.

He's at least been consistent from the beginning of taking a hard nose with China, publicly at least. China is a current and future threat and if the Chinese are indeed prepping for war...well, you can draw your own conclusions. Xi apparently believes his own press and fancies himself another would-be emperor in the making, ala Edrogan. Trump is popping more investment back in the military, at least for now so that helps.

The problem with Trump however is his rather self-absorbed nature to the point it reflects how he views alliances as more burdens than benefits. Yes, alliances look shiny at a distance but they can stink like shit up close when you look at the constant bickering and BS....NATO being one fine example as of late, sadly. But the fact remains if you're going to counter a regional threat, you NEED alliances, not just bilateral ones. It's how we won the Cold War against the Soviet Union. You need to at least try to show some semblance of global leadership...and sadly, as much as I agree with Trump on some things, there are other issues where his faults are as evident as his hairdo.

 

[Lanmandragon]

We need S.koreaa, Japan,ROC, Australia ,and maybe Vietnam for China. The Euros aren't necessary for this threat we need a SEATO.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

What about Nukes or other Chinese WMDs?

 

[Lanmandragon]

What about Nukes or other Chinese WMDs?

Take out as many as we can I guess. We aren't going to start the war imhop it'll be China. So we won't have any option but to fight.

 

[Husky_Khan]

We need S.koreaa, Japan,ROC, Australia ,and maybe Vietnam for China. The Euros aren't necessary for this threat we need a SEATO.

Well there is the Five Powers Defence Agreement for SE Asia with Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, and Singapore. Then we got those US defense treaties with several of the above as well as with Japan and the Philippines... and to other extents South Korea and the Republic of China/Taiwan.

The althist fics will practically write themselves (no they won't)!

 

[Lanmandragon]

To clarify I don't necessarily think China is gonna go to the mat. If there is to be war though I'd say Bejing starts it. As POTUS isn't really into starting wars just finishing them.

 

[Cherico]

Ok here's the thing about china it has a whole lot of structural problems.

China's one child policy started 1979 its been about 40 years since then and China is running out of 30 year olds, 20 year olds and every thing under that, and no China cant fix that because men are required to take care of their parents people decided to focus on boys which means men outnumber women but it gets worse because when china urbanized the men mostly stayed behind to do all of the hard rural labor and women moved into urban centers which means that the two sexes are further separated by geography.

It gets worse the CCP's policy towards economic growth is to take the entire countries savings pool it all together and then point it at any company that promises jobs. It doesn't matter if your company is successful or if your competent if you can create jobs and your Chinese good for you here's the money. Thing is after doing this for decades china is now the single most overleveraged country in human history. They have a subprime crisis in the making that makes our look like a sad joke.

It gets worse.

China has paved over their farmland and put the three gorges damn smack dab in the center of their best river and on top of this have poluted things like crazy. China deals with this problem by having their farmers put in more imputes into their farming then american farms would dare use because of cost issues. This makes China more dependent on middle eastern crude then any other nation on the planet. To get this crude big massive slow moving oil tankers must go past a series of hostle island chains, go bast India a hostle country thats at the very least a regional power if not a great power go to the middle east pick sides in a centuries long bloodfeud then get their oil past India, past that hostle island chain and back to china.

If this oil supply is cut off and it can easily be done at the source, india and the island chains the Chinese people do not recieve the oil. This causes their industry to fail, this destroys China's farming capability when it is already unable to feed China as a whole with out imports. It gets worse.

China because of its aging population can not possibly have their domestic economy absorbe all of their exports they need countries that they can dump goods onto. The problem with that is that the EU is aging too and has become an Export union. Russia doesnt have enough money to do it. India is a closed economy, Africa's governments are a pain in the ass and the only country that can continue to absorb their goods is the United states and the US had 30 years of built up beef with china before Covid. By the way there is no friendly political party to china the democrats are if anything even more hostle to china then then Trump is.

If China cant dump their goods, their economy melts down, thats why all of the smart money has been fleeing china for at least 10 years now, why china is locking down all of the things and installing a system of social control that has George Orwell complaining about plagarism.

Then Covid hit the scene, and it shut down entire sections of the chinese economy. The fact that they lied about it and let the pandemic spread has managed to deeply enrage the hostile island chain they need to get their oil through. It has...oh man if you have been watching indian news the Indians are Livid about this crisis. A lot of Indians are going to die and those fingers are all pointed at China. Then the Chinese decided to deflect by blaming the crisis on Italy which pissed off the EU, then as americans entered full panic mode they blamed the americans for the virus.

Which no one belives but has managed to ENRAGE people like crazy on top of this they have proven themselves to be an unreliable supplier so the Americans, Japanese and others are pulling their industry out of china when ever possible and building it closer to home. America is currently going through one of the biggest reindustrializations in its history.

These are all of the issues at play before a shooting war with china begins.

I wouldnt bet on china to win this one.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

@Cherico
What if the PRC gets desperate? Can they at least make credible threats or significant damage before going down?

Just because the Communist Powers did horribly, doesn’t mean they didn’t have offensive power to give their enemies pause

That said, if even your American Left abandons China, then they lose even more ground in what is potentially dangerous, the ability to have naive & crazy supporters en masse in enemy territory

 

[Cherico]

@Cherico
What if the PRC gets desperate? Can they at least make credible threats or significant damage before going down?

Just because the Communist Powers did horribly, doesn’t mean they didn’t have offensive power to give their enemies pause

That said, if even your American Left abandons China, then they lose even more ground in what is potentially dangerous, the ability to have naive & crazy supporters en masse in enemy territory

If china didn't purposely destroy their own demographics, wasn't so completely dependent on middle eastern oil, and hadn't set their economy up for a melt down that makes the great depression look tame while pissing off every one around them I would feel more concern.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

If china didn't purposely destroy their own demographics, wasn't so completely dependent on middle eastern oil, and hadn't set their economy up for a melt down that makes the great depression look tame while pissing off every one around them I would feel more concern.

Nukes and Deadlier Bioweapons?

 

[Cherico]

Nukes and Deadlier Bioweapons?

Bio weapons have blow back issues like crazy and we have far more nuclear weapons then china does if it gets to nukes Americas done for a generation and china stops existing period.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

Bio weapons have blow back issues like crazy and we have far more nuclear weapons then china does if it gets to nukes Americas done for a generation and china stops existing period.

Still, just because it’s illogical doesn’t mean they won’t do it, if only as spite or a last ditch effort

Course if it gets shot down before it lands and enough of the USA survives, expect China to be invaded while the UN looks on in horror at a Sleeping Giant awakened

 

[Zachowon]

Ok here's the thing about china it has a whole lot of structural problems.

China's one child policy started 1979 its been about 40 years since then and China is running out of 30 year olds, 20 year olds and every thing under that, and no China cant fix that because men are required to take care of their parents people decided to focus on boys which means men outnumber women but it gets worse because when china urbanized the men mostly stayed behind to do all of the hard rural labor and women moved into urban centers which means that the two sexes are further separated by geography.

It gets worse the CCP's policy towards economic growth is to take the entire countries savings pool it all together and then point it at any company that promises jobs. It doesn't matter if your company is successful or if your competent if you can create jobs and your Chinese good for you here's the money. Thing is after doing this for decades china is now the single most overleveraged country in human history. They have a subprime crisis in the making that makes our look like a sad joke.

It gets worse.

China has paved over their farmland and put the three gorges damn smack dab in the center of their best river and on top of this have poluted things like crazy. China deals with this problem by having their farmers put in more imputes into their farming then american farms would dare use because of cost issues. This makes China more dependent on middle eastern crude then any other nation on the planet. To get this crude big massive slow moving oil tankers must go past a series of hostle island chains, go bast India a hostle country thats at the very least a regional power if not a great power go to the middle east pick sides in a centuries long bloodfeud then get their oil past India, past that hostle island chain and back to china.

If this oil supply is cut off and it can easily be done at the source, india and the island chains the Chinese people do not recieve the oil. This causes their industry to fail, this destroys China's farming capability when it is already unable to feed China as a whole with out imports. It gets worse.

China because of its aging population can not possibly have their domestic economy absorbe all of their exports they need countries that they can dump goods onto. The problem with that is that the EU is aging too and has become an Export union. Russia doesnt have enough money to do it. India is a closed economy, Africa's governments are a pain in the ass and the only country that can continue to absorb their goods is the United states and the US had 30 years of built up beef with china before Covid. By the way there is no friendly political party to china the democrats are if anything even more hostle to china then then Trump is.

If China cant dump their goods, their economy melts down, thats why all of the smart money has been fleeing china for at least 10 years now, why china is locking down all of the things and installing a system of social control that has George Orwell complaining about plagarism.

Then Covid hit the scene, and it shut down entire sections of the chinese economy. The fact that they lied about it and let the pandemic spread has managed to deeply enrage the hostile island chain they need to get their oil through. It has...oh man if you have been watching indian news the Indians are Livid about this crisis. A lot of Indians are going to die and those fingers are all pointed at China. Then the Chinese decided to deflect by blaming the crisis on Italy which pissed off the EU, then as americans entered full panic mode they blamed the americans for the virus.

Which no one belives but has managed to ENRAGE people like crazy on top of this they have proven themselves to be an unreliable supplier so the Americans, Japanese and others are pulling their industry out of china when ever possible and building it closer to home. America is currently going through one of the biggest reindustrializations in its history.

These are all of the issues at play before a shooting war with china begins.

I wouldnt bet on china to win this one.

If a shooting war happens Nukes will either be choice A or last ditch to take the States down with it.

They have been extending thier reach since two carriers has Covid and are acting like they are tough, then B52s rolled across an airfield and they did not take the warning.
They are pushing it

 

[Arch Dornan]

Then Covid hit the scene, and it shut down entire sections of the chinese economy. The fact that they lied about it and let the pandemic spread has managed to deeply enrage the hostile island chain they need to get their oil through. It has...oh man if you have been watching indian news the Indians are Livid about this crisis. A lot of Indians are going to die and those fingers are all pointed at China. Then the Chinese decided to deflect by blaming the crisis on Italy which pissed off the EU, then as americans entered full panic mode they blamed the americans for the virus.

Which no one belives but has managed to ENRAGE people like crazy on top of this they have proven themselves to be an unreliable supplier so the Americans, Japanese and others are pulling their industry out of china when ever possible and building it closer to home. America is currently going through one of the biggest reindustrializations in its history.

I've seen enough on India's Wion they fucking hate the CCP and take every opportunity to shit on them and unsuprisingly Pakistan.

Even Africa's getting red pilled when they're getting scammed with shitty test equipment like Tanzania testing it on animals and getting a positive.

 

[Tiamat]

If a shooting war happens Nukes will either be choice A or last ditch to take the States down with it.

They have been extending thier reach since two carriers has Covid and are acting like they are tough, then B52s rolled across an airfield and they did not take the warning.
They are pushing it

I think it's partly to do with that the Chinese are starting to actually believe their own press...they've put such a substantial propaganda campaign over the years, intensifying within the last few years and especially now. Much like that saying "repeat the lie enough times and you will believe it", they are starting to actually believe "China Number 1", "China will rule the world", etc. etc....

I can think of another country, hell two, back in the late 1930's that deluded themselves with the same thinking...it didn't go well for either one IIRC. Hell, Japan now is probably looking at China and going "you might want to take a lesson or two from us guys..."

 

[Lord Sovereign]

The United States, on its own, would swat China like a gnat. The American soldier is the roman legionary of today whilst the Chinese soldier is some poor conscript who does not want to be there. His equipment, training and leadership are also inferior. Chinese tanks are not the match of M1 Abrams; Chinese jets are not the match of F-22s or F-35s; and as for their navy, that is just a laughable comparison. They would have to use human wave tactics on, which honestly would likely overwhelm the Americans due to the sheer multitude of Chinese soldiers trying to surrender to them.

A part of me wonders whether military action is necessary. China, this tedious country with delusions of grandeur, should be put in its place. Besides, making an example of the People's Republic will remind the world who is in charge here. Washington D.C is the 21st century Rome, and any who break her peace must pay the price.

 

[Lanmandragon]

Ok here's the thing about china it has a whole lot of structural problems.

China's one child policy started 1979 its been about 40 years since then and China is running out of 30 year olds, 20 year olds and every thing under that, and no China cant fix that because men are required to take care of their parents people decided to focus on boys which means men outnumber women but it gets worse because when china urbanized the men mostly stayed behind to do all of the hard rural labor and women moved into urban centers which means that the two sexes are further separated by geography.

It gets worse the CCP's policy towards economic growth is to take the entire countries savings pool it all together and then point it at any company that promises jobs. It doesn't matter if your company is successful or if your competent if you can create jobs and your Chinese good for you here's the money. Thing is after doing this for decades china is now the single most overleveraged country in human history. They have a subprime crisis in the making that makes our look like a sad joke.

It gets worse.

China has paved over their farmland and put the three gorges damn smack dab in the center of their best river and on top of this have poluted things like crazy. China deals with this problem by having their farmers put in more imputes into their farming then american farms would dare use because of cost issues. This makes China more dependent on middle eastern crude then any other nation on the planet. To get this crude big massive slow moving oil tankers must go past a series of hostle island chains, go bast India a hostle country thats at the very least a regional power if not a great power go to the middle east pick sides in a centuries long bloodfeud then get their oil past India, past that hostle island chain and back to china.

If this oil supply is cut off and it can easily be done at the source, india and the island chains the Chinese people do not recieve the oil. This causes their industry to fail, this destroys China's farming capability when it is already unable to feed China as a whole with out imports. It gets worse.

China because of its aging population can not possibly have their domestic economy absorbe all of their exports they need countries that they can dump goods onto. The problem with that is that the EU is aging too and has become an Export union. Russia doesnt have enough money to do it. India is a closed economy, Africa's governments are a pain in the ass and the only country that can continue to absorb their goods is the United states and the US had 30 years of built up beef with china before Covid. By the way there is no friendly political party to china the democrats are if anything even more hostle to china then then Trump is.

If China cant dump their goods, their economy melts down, thats why all of the smart money has been fleeing china for at least 10 years now, why china is locking down all of the things and installing a system of social control that has George Orwell complaining about plagarism.

Then Covid hit the scene, and it shut down entire sections of the chinese economy. The fact that they lied about it and let the pandemic spread has managed to deeply enrage the hostile island chain they need to get their oil through. It has...oh man if you have been watching indian news the Indians are Livid about this crisis. A lot of Indians are going to die and those fingers are all pointed at China. Then the Chinese decided to deflect by blaming the crisis on Italy which pissed off the EU, then as americans entered full panic mode they blamed the americans for the virus.

Which no one belives but has managed to ENRAGE people like crazy on top of this they have proven themselves to be an unreliable supplier so the Americans, Japanese and others are pulling their industry out of china when ever possible and building it closer to home. America is currently going through one of the biggest reindustrializations in its history.

These are all of the issues at play before a shooting war with china begins.

I wouldnt bet on china to win this one.

Sure they can't actually win but if Houston or Chicago go up un nuclear fire that's not good. I'm not saying we shouldn't fight but we have to be aware if the enemy's capabilities. Because if I've learned one thing being a gansta. It's underestimating your enemy means you die damn near every time. Fear is a good thing as long as it's controlled fear.