How much did the 2nd German Reich [1871-1914] need to concede to the Russian Empire to guarantee secure friendship, no two-front war?

[raharris1973]

We all know the following to be true:

France was Germany's forever enemy after 1871

Germany's Austro-Hungarian ally was a liability not an asset

Germany need to be allied with Britain or Russia, the only two powers powerful enough, other than France, to be worth having as main allies

Britain isn't reliable, it's flighty, perfidious:

-It doesn't like to pre-commit
-You can't count on it to reciprocate, it may turn on you if it thinks you're too powerful
-Or it may seek ties only on its own terms, drop your interests in a side deal

After the Crimean War, Austria and Russia really can't get along durably

So adding this all up, the second German Empire has to make positive relations with Russia its number one priority for security against a two front war happening. It's the biggest deterrent against France starting a war, and the biggest guarantee Germany would win any war that happens in Europe if deterrence fails.

So what does it have to cost Germany? It's hard to say "no" to Russia's geopolitical wants and desires and keep its friendship.

What does Berlin have to concede in Europe (to have it stay friendly, and not make a threatening alliance with France):

a) Russian expansion into any Ottoman territory
b) Russian expansion into any Ottoman or Balkan territory southeast of Austria-Hungary
c) Russian expansion into Ottoman, Balkan, or Habsburg territory east of Vienna
d) Carte blanche to reorganize Europe east of Vienna guarantees nothing from Russia

I think Germany could probably live with a) or b) without much discomfort if that's where things stop in Europe. c) is quite a bit more uncomfortable, and requires Germany to be ready to absorb German Catholics (and a Russian puppet Bohemia or Hungary is no fun either). d) Means all the accommodation is for nothing and was probably not the right idea in the first place and that the most sensible thing to do was when Tsar Alexander was sounding out about a war on Turkey in the 1870s Berlin and the other powers should have said 'hell no, ain't nobody changing' no borders 'round here'.

 

[PsihoKekec]

At the congress of Berlin, Bismarck tries to get the final settlement to be closer to the treaty of San Steffano, or at least guides the proceedings in such way that it is seen as fault of Great Britain and Austria-Hungary that the final settlement is as insulting to Russia as it was OTL.

 

[stevep]

We all know the following to be true:

France was Germany's forever enemy after 1871

Germany's Austro-Hungarian ally was a liability not an asset

Germany need to be allied with Britain or Russia, the only two powers powerful enough, other than France, to be worth having as main allies

Britain isn't reliable, it's flighty, perfidious:

-It doesn't like to pre-commit
-You can't count on it to reciprocate, it may turn on you if it thinks you're too powerful
-Or it may seek ties only on its own terms, drop your interests in a side deal

After the Crimean War, Austria and Russia really can't get along durably

So adding this all up, the second German Empire has to make positive relations with Russia its number one priority for security against a two front war happening. It's the biggest deterrent against France starting a war, and the biggest guarantee Germany would win any war that happens in Europe if deterrence fails.

So what does it have to cost Germany? It's hard to say "no" to Russia's geopolitical wants and desires and keep its friendship.

What does Berlin have to concede in Europe (to have it stay friendly, and not make a threatening alliance with France):

a) Russian expansion into any Ottoman territory
b) Russian expansion into any Ottoman or Balkan territory southeast of Austria-Hungary
c) Russian expansion into Ottoman, Balkan, or Habsburg territory east of Vienna
d) Carte blanche to reorganize Europe east of Vienna guarantees nothing from Russia

I think Germany could probably live with a) or b) without much discomfort if that's where things stop in Europe. c) is quite a bit more uncomfortable, and requires Germany to be ready to absorb German Catholics (and a Russian puppet Bohemia or Hungary is no fun either). d) Means all the accommodation is for nothing and was probably not the right idea in the first place and that the most sensible thing to do was when Tsar Alexander was sounding out about a war on Turkey in the 1870s Berlin and the other powers should have said 'hell no, ain't nobody changing' no borders 'round here'.

I would say that a defensive alliance would have been very practical for Germany and Britain, especially if it negates the German naval challenge which would also boost the German position as there's more resources for elsewhere. Note I'm not talking about Germany building no significant navy. Just not setting out to continually challenge Britain's security as it did.

In terms of a German-Russian alliance or at least agreement the key issue is that no nation has permanent allies. As such requirements and relationships will always change with time and circumstances. ~1900 Germany is the top dog on the continent in terms of economic and actual military power - Russia has larger numbers but isn't going to risk taking on Germany on its own, let alone with Austria. However given its greater size and population even imperial Russia is going to challenge that industrially and potentially militarily. As such unless there are greater common threats sooner or later the two will become estranged. Not necessarily hostile - although given the delusions related to so called Darwinism politics and the belief in the need for continue struggle, which was generally seen largely in military terms - its likely that the two will see each other as their primary potential threat.

As such its quite possible for Bismarck's political measures to maintain good relations with Russia and isolate France for probably another decade or two at least. However especially with Russian development and if there's a failure of reform in Austria after Franz Joseph dies its likely to see increasing tension.

 

[ATP]

Russian very seriously treated panslavis shit,so Germans must agree to:
1.Gave tsar ottomans
2.gave tsar all slavic nations from A-H except poles.
3.Do not interfere in China
4.Do not support Japan/in OTL they help build japaneese army/.

Problem is - GERMANS wonted create mittleeurope with vassal states there,Russia wonted the same.For that reason,peace was impossible.There were 2 Alpha dogs wonting the same bone.They could not cooperate.

 

[raharris1973]

Russian very seriously treated panslavis shit,so Germans must agree to:
1.Gave tsar ottomans
2.gave tsar all slavic nations from A-H except poles.
3.Do not interfere in China

You're going to end up with a really weird looking border here, but OK. [I assume the Russians will want to puppet the ethnic Romanians too, because they are Orthodox]

4.Do not support Japan/in OTL they help build japaneese army/.

They never explicitly complained about that to my knowledge, but they always could I guess.

Problem is - GERMANS wonted create mittleeurope with vassal states there,Russia wonted the same.For that reason,peace was impossible.There were 2 Alpha dogs wonting the same bone.They could not cooperate.

Well the Alpha dog move for the Germans from the beginning is to warn the Montenegrins, Serbs, Romanians, and Russians from attacking the Ottomans in the first place in the 1870s. And if the Russians do it anyway, wait until the Ottomans start to hold on at Plevna and the British opinion turns from anti-Turk to pro-Turk, and ally with Britain, Austria and Turkey to come down on Russia like a ton of bricks. And just keep doing that with available allies whenever the Russians threaten to expand.

 

[bintananth]

You're going to end up with a really weird looking border here, but OK. [I assume the Russians will want to puppet the ethnic Romanians too, because they are Orthodox]

They never explicitly complained about that to my knowledge, but they always could I guess.



Well the Alpha dog move for the Germans from the beginning is to warn the Montenegrins, Serbs, Romanians, and Russians from attacking the Ottomans in the first place in the 1870s. And if the Russians do it anyway, wait until the Ottomans start to hold on at Plevna and the British opinion turns from anti-Turk to pro-Turk, and ally with Britain, Austria and Turkey to come down on Russia like a ton of bricks. And just keep doing that with available allies whenever the Russians threaten to expand.

Remember: The US was a Russian ally back then and did have enough clout to make a British prize court pay out an award for a Confederate capture of an American ship brought to a British port because there are rules and we aren't breaking them.

 

[bintananth]

Another thing to keep in mind: The RN and IJN were allies during WWI but the US never trusted "those sneaky nips" aven though many of them were born in and grew up in the US.

 

[Buba]

Berlin-Sankt Peterburg is a two way street - the Germans may offer but the Russians may have a change of heart and ask for more - or be content with less.
Problem is that keeping Russia happy makes Austria-Hungary unhappy. This is a very, very difficult balancing act with all the penis waving and chest thumping behaviour on both sides ...
An unhappy A-H may turn to France (which does happy dance) and the the French might end up signing a military convention with A-H, not Russia ...

 

[raharris1973]

An unhappy A-H may turn to France (which does happy dance) and the the French might end up signing a military convention with A-H, not Russia ...

If I got to choose my enemy coalition, that is the one I would choose. I honestly think that it would never work up the nerve to attack Germany Russia, so we end up with peace on the north European plain, average people and horses everywhere do the happy dance.

Or, if the Franco-Austria-Hungary decides to fight or provoke one from the Berlin-Sankt-Petersburg POV, Austria will be finished pretty quickly, less than a year, and France in probably no more than two years.

 

[Buba]

Austria will be finished pretty quickly, less than a year, and France in probably no more than two years.

But ... but ... Perfidious Albion, u no, keeping Da Man down and all that ...

 

[raharris1973]

But ... but ... Perfidious Albion, u no, keeping Da Man down and all that ...

Blockade schmockade, as long as Russia’s your ally, and you’re taxing the continental harvest.

 

[Buba]

BTW - I read, I don't remember where (here? AH?) a study on this very subject.
The OP, after a few thousand words, reached the conclusion that from Berlin's c. 1890 perspective:
- Vienna will never seriously challenge Germany on its own;
- Russia will be capable of seriously challenging Germany on its own inside a few decades;

Hence when choosing between the two going with A-H was, from that point of view, the correct choice.

 

[stevep]

If I got to choose my enemy coalition, that is the one I would choose. I honestly think that it would never work up the nerve to attack Germany Russia, so we end up with peace on the north European plain, average people and horses everywhere do the happy dance.

Or, if the Franco-Austria-Hungary decides to fight or provoke one from the Berlin-Sankt-Petersburg POV, Austria will be finished pretty quickly, less than a year, and France in probably no more than two years.

In that case I would agree that France and Austria would never willingly risk conflict with the opposing alliance, especially since its very likely to have Italy in the alliance against them as well. The issue would be the danger of the Berlin-St Petersburg-Rome alliance triggering a war.

 

[ATP]

You're going to end up with a really weird looking border here, but OK. [I assume the Russians will want to puppet the ethnic Romanians too, because they are Orthodox]

They never explicitly complained about that to my knowledge, but they always could I guess.



Well the Alpha dog move for the Germans from the beginning is to warn the Montenegrins, Serbs, Romanians, and Russians from attacking the Ottomans in the first place in the 1870s. And if the Russians do it anyway, wait until the Ottomans start to hold on at Plevna and the British opinion turns from anti-Turk to pro-Turk, and ally with Britain, Austria and Turkey to come down on Russia like a ton of bricks. And just keep doing that with available allies whenever the Russians threaten to expand.

All true.And german almost made right thing and join Turks with England against Russia in 1878.It would mean war with France and A-H,too,and would be tough fight - 1 and half army/germany and Turkey/ against 3 armies/Russia,France and A-H/
Interesting,who would win ?

 

[raharris1973]

All true.And german almost made right thing and join Turks with England against Russia in 1878.It would mean war with France and A-H,too,and would be tough fight - 1 and half army/germany and Turkey/ against 3 armies/Russia,France and A-H/
Interesting,who would win ?

Austria-Hungary on Russia's side instead of the German and Ottoman? WTH?

 

[ATP]

Austria-Hungary on Russia's side instead of the German and Ottoman? WTH?

They still remembered about 1866,and Russia was much weaker then.Who would win? France had modernized army,so have A-H.Russian were still partially obsolate,Turkey were totally obsolate,so it would be A-H + France against Germany and Russia finishing off Turkey.
Interesting war to wage.

 

[WolfBear]

If I got to choose my enemy coalition, that is the one I would choose. I honestly think that it would never work up the nerve to attack Germany Russia, so we end up with peace on the north European plain, average people and horses everywhere do the happy dance.

Or, if the Franco-Austria-Hungary decides to fight or provoke one from the Berlin-Sankt-Petersburg POV, Austria will be finished pretty quickly, less than a year, and France in probably no more than two years.

Yep, completely agreed. But even in such a scenario, it might still be in Germany's interests to vassalize rump Austria afterwards as opposed to outright annex Austria due to the fact that an outright German annexation of Austria (and perhaps Czechia) will significantly alter Germany's religious character, possibly up to the point of making Germany Catholic-majority, in which case questions could be asked as to why exactly Germany still has a Protestant monarch.

Anyway, I voted that the Russians will be content with a German carte blanche to redraw the Ottoman Empire and the Balkans south of Austria-Hungary, but not Austria-Hungary itself, however the Russians will see fit. I think that the Russians could be content with an Austria-Hungary that keeps its territorial integrity but also functions as a vassal to Russia.