raharris1973
Well-known member
This scenario is inspired by something I learned about while watching the pilot for "The Tudors", Cardinal Thomas Wolsey gained the support of his sovereign, Henry VIII, for a proposed perpetual peace treaty/non-aggression treaty and commitments to collective security enforcement in the event of violations. The ambition was remarkable, even if doomed in OTL, it anticipated many core concepts of the League of Nations Covenant and Kellog-Briand Pact 400 years early. Here's some additional detail from wiki:
The Treaty of London in 1518 was a non-aggression pact between the major European nations. The signatories were Burgundy, France, England, the Holy Roman Empire, the Netherlands, the Papal States and Spain, all of whom agreed not to attack one another and to come to the aid of any that were under attack.[1][2]
The treaty was designed by Cardinal Wolsey and so came to be signed by the ambassadors of the nations concerned in London.[3] Pope Leo X originally called for a five-year peace while the monarchs of Europe helped him fight back the rising power of the Ottoman Empire, which was encroaching into the Balkans.[2] Wolsey was very keen on instead making lasting peace and persuaded Henry to avoid war and take a more diplomatic route in foreign affairs. ]
All European countries except for Islamic Turkey were invited to London (Russia was not considered to be a part of Europe, but of Asia at that time). The treaty hoped to bind the 20 leading states of Europe into peace with one another, and thus end warfare between the states of Europe. In October 1518 it was initiated between representatives from England and France. It was then ratified by other European nations and the Pope. The agreement established a defensive league based upon the following:
The terms committed states with an active foreign policy to not only commit to a stance of non-aggression, but also to promise to make war upon any state which broke the terms of the treaty. At the time, it was thought a triumph for Thomas Wolsey and allowed Henry VIII to greatly increase his standing in European political circles, to the extent that England became seen as a third major power.[4][full citation needed]
So what if ASB mind-control compels the 20 nations of Europe to collectively follow the terms of the treaty at the system level. The ASB's spell lasts at least 200 years. It does not have to be perfect peace. Because I'd want to see the collective security provisions played out, individual countries or pairs of countries can go berserk a few times a century and commit aggression, but the violator(s) in all such cases must be actively opposed by all other signatories and brought back into line within a year.
Although there are loopholes allowing the signatories to fight nations outside of Christendom, I'd rather ask more about the economic, political, social and cultural consequences of intra-European relations being far more peaceful and orderly than OTL for 1518-1718. Even the merging Protestant Catholic divide does not allow allow signatory states to exclude each other from the system's protection. The ASBs don't permit it.
What do the economy, society and politics of Europe look like by 1718? What technologies are slower and what are faster? What about European relations with other continents, in the context of Europeans being peaceable with each other 95% of the time no matter where they meet around the globe?
Among the development I could imagine with this extraordinarily peaceful Europe:
1) More wealth accumulates in private hands, at multiple levels of society. Many great estates are not ruined by war and the tax burden and the military service burden on the peasants is less. This goes hand in hand with lower taxes.
2) Lower taxes probably means fewer revolts overall. Rebellion and civil strife are far more likely than interstate war to cause violent death in any given population.
3) Many military related developments and innovations are stymied, including sophisticated central banking, various weapons and medical techniques developed in the context of military medicine and surgery.
4) More patronage of the arts. Wider participation of the nobility in the arts (think effect of Tokugawa Japanese regime on Samurai)
5) No Thirty Years War and various other lengthy wars in this period reduces population losses due to war deaths, war pillaging, the boost wars and foraging armies and sieges give to epidemics etc. European population expands *alot* in the century from 1518 to 1618. After that crowding and rising cost of living probably starts to cause more in the way of famines, revolts, epidemics, capital crimes, and capital punishment, and some other Malthusian correctors.
6) European trade and colonization continues to go global. But, with the Atlantic powers at peace with each other almost al the time, and hardly any prospect of making gains by aggression against each other, there are big differences. Colonies are not constantly changing hands in wars, and the powers are much more likely to work out the division of the Americas through international conferences and "rules of the game" like this involved in OTL's late 19th century "scramble for Africa". Colonies can change hands through purchase, bankruptcy, etc, but first effective claimers in any given area will generally be secure from attack by other Europeans, and Europeans are generally not encouraging and arming native Americans to attack each others colonies.
7) Piracy is less of an issue worldwide because national navies can focus on its suppression, and their merchants will demand it.
8) Consumer and leisure related technological innovations occur more quickly.
9) There may be an earlier attempt to revive systems of international tournaments or sporting competitions, maybe claiming the Olympic label, or not, as an activity for boisterous nobility to occupy their time.
10) More populous and richer central Europe
11) In prosperous periods, problems of obesity, diabetes, tobacco and drug use might affect a somewhat wider strata than that of OTL. This in turn leads to lifestyle related medicine and recommendations advancing faster, but not necessarily being applied.
The Treaty of London in 1518 was a non-aggression pact between the major European nations. The signatories were Burgundy, France, England, the Holy Roman Empire, the Netherlands, the Papal States and Spain, all of whom agreed not to attack one another and to come to the aid of any that were under attack.[1][2]
The treaty was designed by Cardinal Wolsey and so came to be signed by the ambassadors of the nations concerned in London.[3] Pope Leo X originally called for a five-year peace while the monarchs of Europe helped him fight back the rising power of the Ottoman Empire, which was encroaching into the Balkans.[2] Wolsey was very keen on instead making lasting peace and persuaded Henry to avoid war and take a more diplomatic route in foreign affairs. ]
All European countries except for Islamic Turkey were invited to London (Russia was not considered to be a part of Europe, but of Asia at that time). The treaty hoped to bind the 20 leading states of Europe into peace with one another, and thus end warfare between the states of Europe. In October 1518 it was initiated between representatives from England and France. It was then ratified by other European nations and the Pope. The agreement established a defensive league based upon the following:
The terms committed states with an active foreign policy to not only commit to a stance of non-aggression, but also to promise to make war upon any state which broke the terms of the treaty. At the time, it was thought a triumph for Thomas Wolsey and allowed Henry VIII to greatly increase his standing in European political circles, to the extent that England became seen as a third major power.[4][full citation needed]
So what if ASB mind-control compels the 20 nations of Europe to collectively follow the terms of the treaty at the system level. The ASB's spell lasts at least 200 years. It does not have to be perfect peace. Because I'd want to see the collective security provisions played out, individual countries or pairs of countries can go berserk a few times a century and commit aggression, but the violator(s) in all such cases must be actively opposed by all other signatories and brought back into line within a year.
Although there are loopholes allowing the signatories to fight nations outside of Christendom, I'd rather ask more about the economic, political, social and cultural consequences of intra-European relations being far more peaceful and orderly than OTL for 1518-1718. Even the merging Protestant Catholic divide does not allow allow signatory states to exclude each other from the system's protection. The ASBs don't permit it.
What do the economy, society and politics of Europe look like by 1718? What technologies are slower and what are faster? What about European relations with other continents, in the context of Europeans being peaceable with each other 95% of the time no matter where they meet around the globe?
Among the development I could imagine with this extraordinarily peaceful Europe:
1) More wealth accumulates in private hands, at multiple levels of society. Many great estates are not ruined by war and the tax burden and the military service burden on the peasants is less. This goes hand in hand with lower taxes.
2) Lower taxes probably means fewer revolts overall. Rebellion and civil strife are far more likely than interstate war to cause violent death in any given population.
3) Many military related developments and innovations are stymied, including sophisticated central banking, various weapons and medical techniques developed in the context of military medicine and surgery.
4) More patronage of the arts. Wider participation of the nobility in the arts (think effect of Tokugawa Japanese regime on Samurai)
5) No Thirty Years War and various other lengthy wars in this period reduces population losses due to war deaths, war pillaging, the boost wars and foraging armies and sieges give to epidemics etc. European population expands *alot* in the century from 1518 to 1618. After that crowding and rising cost of living probably starts to cause more in the way of famines, revolts, epidemics, capital crimes, and capital punishment, and some other Malthusian correctors.
6) European trade and colonization continues to go global. But, with the Atlantic powers at peace with each other almost al the time, and hardly any prospect of making gains by aggression against each other, there are big differences. Colonies are not constantly changing hands in wars, and the powers are much more likely to work out the division of the Americas through international conferences and "rules of the game" like this involved in OTL's late 19th century "scramble for Africa". Colonies can change hands through purchase, bankruptcy, etc, but first effective claimers in any given area will generally be secure from attack by other Europeans, and Europeans are generally not encouraging and arming native Americans to attack each others colonies.
7) Piracy is less of an issue worldwide because national navies can focus on its suppression, and their merchants will demand it.
8) Consumer and leisure related technological innovations occur more quickly.
9) There may be an earlier attempt to revive systems of international tournaments or sporting competitions, maybe claiming the Olympic label, or not, as an activity for boisterous nobility to occupy their time.
10) More populous and richer central Europe
11) In prosperous periods, problems of obesity, diabetes, tobacco and drug use might affect a somewhat wider strata than that of OTL. This in turn leads to lifestyle related medicine and recommendations advancing faster, but not necessarily being applied.
