History Learner
Well-known member
Of those age classes, yes.
French unity, persistence, and strategy in a Germany goes east WWI- Union Sacree?
- Thread starter raharris1973
- Start date
Of those age classes, yes.
Those losses are almost comparable to Soviet male losses in WWII. IIRC, around 40% of the 1923-born Soviet males who were still alive in 1941 were already dead by 1945.
Is this the kind of attitude along the lines of "We're friendly towards refugees, but we don't want them near us!"?
Do we get a Brest-Litovsk-style peace in the East in this TL, or something more moderate? Perhaps a western Russian border along the Daugava-Dnieper Line (or along OTL's future Panther-Wotan Line)? Interestingly enough, this TL will still be much better for Russia than our TL was since Russia won't suffer the extreme demographic devastation that it suffered during the 20th century in real life. So, Russia right now will have 250+ million people rather than less than 150 million (excluding the newly annexed Ukrainian territories which aren't recognized by anyone so far).
sillygoose
Well-known member
No. B-L wasn't even wanted by the CPs IOTL, but since the Bolsheviks refused to make peace hoping that revolution would spread to their countries. The CPs opted to attack and since that worked out so well they opted for a putative peace since they assumed the Bolsheviks were too weak to deliver on the raw material demands they had. Better to grab the territory that had the resources and extract it yourself rather than solely relying on the Bolsheviks honoring the treaty and delivering the resources agreed to.
IIRC a quick peace would see Germany just asking for Lithuania and Poland, since they assumed they could take it and get the necessary buffer zone needed. Galicia was A-H's buffer zone already.
Assuming peace were maintained after the quick war in 1914 and Russia only loses the two territories above then they'd have more than 250 million people, assuming the Empire otherwise remained intact.
Well, TBH, I was just wondering if the Germans would get victory fever if they are able to win a bunch of quick victories against Russia and thus think that they can get even more. Real life isn't applicable here because in real life Germans wanted to quickly close the Eastern Front in order to send as many troops as possible to the West and as soon as possible to boot.
That said, though, even in a limited peace, Germany should also aim for Courland and perhaps Riga, no? And Romania should get Bessarabia while the Ottoman Empire gets Kars Oblast (with or without Batumi) back, right?
But Yeah, if Russia does NOT lose Ukraine in this TL, then Russia would be a huge winner of this alternate World War I. It would mean that Russia's Slavic population right now would be in the 400 million range (or at least 350+ million range, depending on just how demographically devastating a subsequent civil war will be in Russia) and, once you add in another 100+ million non-Russians, you could easily see a total Russian population of around half a billion. Since Russia has high human capital, it should perform quite well economically in the long(er)-run without the extreme demographic and economic devastation that Communism has brought upon it.
Interestingly enough, I really do wonder if it would have been prudent for Britain to make a deal with Germany where the Brits stay out of WWI in exchange for Germany not annexing any French or Belgian territory:
en.wikipedia.org
Germany was apparently making such offers. The destruction of Serbia would not have destroyed the European balance-of-power if both France and Russia would have remained Great Powers after all of this would have been over.
July Crisis - Wikipedia
Germany was apparently making such offers. The destruction of Serbia would not have destroyed the European balance-of-power if both France and Russia would have remained Great Powers after all of this would have been over.
sillygoose
Well-known member
Seems like they considered Russia the real threat, so wanted to close that out as quickly as possible, rather than getting dragged into a long war in the East. Plus Nicky and Willy seemed to have liked each other much more than the British and German monarchs did, which IMHO at least in a short war means Russia will be given a cheap out while the Wentente gets to pay the price for the war.
AFAIK the Germans weren't interested in Riga until after they had taken it. Why would Romania get anything here?
Total Russian empire population might be 500 million or so, but more likely 400 million as increased prosperity tends to quickly drop birthrates, especially as they get away from agriculture where huge families were a necessity.
Arguably the 'high human capital' of Russia today is due to an evolutionary process that weeded out the weak and stupid throughout the 20th century. A relatively unblooded Russia today would be more like China with a very large population, but one with serious limitations intellectually. There is a reason that China only really tests its best students for international comparisons.
Buba
A total creep
That statement pissed me off. I have family murdered by the Soviets.
sillygoose
Well-known member
I'm not saying that your family was stupid or weak, especially given that as you say they were murdered by the Soviets not died through all the calamities that fell on the population outside of deliberate murder, just that many of those who fit that description in Russia society died due to the famines, economic collapses, and spread of disease from WW1 through the post-Soviet economic collapse. Due to repeated mass starvation events and economic collapses tens of millions died within the USSR who for whatever reason were unable to find a way through and as a result that left a more limited population of survivors to have children. As a result the people having children tended to be more robust and capable of surviving in difficult circumstances than those who lived in the stable and functional society that existed in Russia pre-1914.
Survival of the fittest depends on the circumstances as to what qualifies as 'fittest'. It doesn't necessarily mean the strongest or smartest. Often the most corrupt and parasitical are likely to come through as their willing to throw anyone else under the train to get through. Which could help explain why Russia is the disaster area it is today.
I'm just saying that simply taking Poland, Lithuania, and Courland won't be enough to destroy Russia's power long-term. Though if Germany just wants a buffer to protect itself from Russia, then it would be a different story.
As for Romania, I would presume that it would jump into the war at the last minute in order to get its fair share of spoils once it looks like Germany is winning. Ditto for the Ottoman Empire.
FWIW, it's worth noting that the urbanization process in Russia might have been slower in this TL without forced collectivization and whatnot. It would have still gradually occurred, of course, but perhaps not quite at the same pace as it occurred in real life. And the 400 million should be Russia's total Slavic population in the long-run after the loss of Poland; 500 million would include an extra 100 million Central Asians, Caucasians, et cetera.
As for high human capital, it certainly weren't only the dull Russians who were killed by Communists. A lot of smart Russians were killed, exiled, or emigrated as a result of Communism as well. And how exactly do you know that Chinese as a whole are dull on average? Sure, they're not as smart as the Chinese in Shanghai, but they don't give me the impression of being dull:
The Evolution Of Chinese IQ
In the discussion at the previous post, in which I took exception to Ron Unz\'s theory of the East Asian Exception, he alerted me to so additional work on the matter he\'d done as a Harvard freshman on Chinese IQ. You can read his summary of Social Darwinism and Rural China as well as Steve...
www.unz.com
Disagree With Ron Unz's Conclusions On Chinese IQ - Anatoly Karlin
He writes: These scores are indeed truly remarkable, and completely confirm the apparent pattern of Lynn’s IQ samples, in which desperately poor East Asians tend to score at or above the levels of the most successful and well-educated Western populations… But since the total population is at...
akarlin.com
Analysis Of China's PISA 2009 Results - Anatoly Karlin
As human capital is so important for prosperity, it behoves us to know China’s in detail to assess whether it will continue converging on developed countries. Until recently the best data we had were disparate IQ tests (on the basis of which Richard Lynn’s latest estimate is an IQ of 105.8 in...
akarlin.com
Why China Is Far Superior To India - Anatoly Karlin
It is not a secret to longtime readers of this blog that I rate India’s prospects far more pessimistically than I do China’s. My main reason is I do not share the delusion that democracy is a panacea and that whatever advantage in this sphere India has is more than outweighed by China’s lead in...
akarlin.com
sillygoose
Well-known member
Sure, in the general sense that is the definition of fittest. However based on reading and interviews about the various calamities that hit Russia in the 20th century I've repeatedly seen reference to these events, namely the famines and general collapse of social functions not the deliberate mass murders, having a culling effect on the sick, old, children, and people unable to find some way to sustain themselves. That doesn't of course mean that smart and strong people didn't perish, but disproportionately they were the type that survived what happened (other than in the wars). During the 1990s collapse I saw a rather extensive interview with someone would lived through the collapse of the economy and social order in his city and talked about how among the generations that lived through it only the robust survived, everyone else died due to lack of medical care.
Russia is no more a 'disaster' today than the US or Europe is. What problems is has is the fall out of the economic system imposed by the US for aid, which led to the rise of the oligarchs; that has created major issues that still haven't been resolved especially given the sanctions imposed since 2014. Still, economic inequality in Russia is actually less bad than the US:
The Wealth Gap in the U.S. Is Worse Than In Russia or Iran
David Brooks believes it's ruining America. We ask urbanist Richard Florida to weigh in.
sillygoose
Well-known member
Sure, but that wasn't what the Germans were trying to do. They were trying to get a buffer zone and mobilization area in event of a future war. Plus those territories were quite economically valuable and could theoretically at least yield considerable numbers of soldiers to fight for the CPs.
Agreed, but that goes against OP.
Also agreed. And Russia would be stronger for it. 400 million though is probably an overestimation of the Slavic population by at least 50-100 million. Birthrates would slow down with increased prosperity and more urbanization, plus emigration might well pick up.FWIW, it's worth noting that the urbanization process in Russia might have been slower in this TL without forced collectivization and whatnot. It would have still gradually occurred, of course, but perhaps not quite at the same pace as it occurred in real life. And the 400 million should be Russia's total Slavic population in the long-run after the loss of Poland; 500 million would include an extra 100 million Central Asians, Caucasians, et cetera.
As for high human capital, it certainly weren't only the dull Russians who were killed by Communists. A lot of smart Russians were killed, exiled, or emigrated as a result of Communism as well. And how exactly do you know that Chinese as a whole are dull on average? Sure, they're not as smart as the Chinese in Shanghai, but they don't give me the impression of being dull:
The Evolution Of Chinese IQ
In the discussion at the previous post, in which I took exception to Ron Unz\'s theory of the East Asian Exception, he alerted me to so additional work on the matter he\'d done as a Harvard freshman on Chinese IQ. You can read his summary of Social Darwinism and Rural China as well as Steve...www.unz.com
Disagree With Ron Unz's Conclusions On Chinese IQ - Anatoly Karlin
He writes: These scores are indeed truly remarkable, and completely confirm the apparent pattern of Lynn’s IQ samples, in which desperately poor East Asians tend to score at or above the levels of the most successful and well-educated Western populations… But since the total population is at...
Analysis Of China's PISA 2009 Results - Anatoly Karlin
As human capital is so important for prosperity, it behoves us to know China’s in detail to assess whether it will continue converging on developed countries. Until recently the best data we had were disparate IQ tests (on the basis of which Richard Lynn’s latest estimate is an IQ of 105.8 in...
Why China Is Far Superior To India - Anatoly Karlin
It is not a secret to longtime readers of this blog that I rate India’s prospects far more pessimistically than I do China’s. My main reason is I do not share the delusion that democracy is a panacea and that whatever advantage in this sphere India has is more than outweighed by China’s lead in...
Sure the Soviets did kill quite a few smart people, but the bulk of their victims were the average person through famines and political repression of criminals. However I'm not simply talking about communist action, I'm also talking about the wars and social collapse that happened during the civil war, collapse of the czarist regime, and collapse of communism as well.
China only tests its best urban students for those, not the average person.
On Those 'Stunning' Shanghai Test Scores
How frightened should we be about the latest proof of Chinese dominance?
www.theatlantic.com
Plus I don't know if you know/knew many Chinese students in college, but cheating is rampant and nearly universal due competitiveness.
My hunch is that the Chinese are like everyone else in terms of IQ distribution, but the one child policy hampered them since it really only was enforced strickly in urban areas. Farmers could have a second child officially, but from what I've heard from Chinese students even that wasn't really enforced for that group.
That makes sense, but wouldn't it make even more sense to try permanently taking Russia down a notch by stripping it of as much of its valuable territory as possible so that there won't be any future war? The Daugava-Dnieper Line seems like a great defensive line in this regard.
Gotcha.
The projections that I've seen show 260-280 million Russians, 87 million Ukrainians, and perhaps 20 million Belarusians. Those are separate projections, BTW. And they do factor in a decline in birth rates as well as an increase in life expectancy. But there would also be some Slavs in Central Asia and the Caucasus. So, Yeah, 400 million strikes me as being about accurate. Certainly no less than 350 million, though. Unless of course Russia gets Daugava-Dnieper Line borders, in which case it could have something like 300-ish million Slavs instead.
Killing average people does not lower a country's average IQ.
China only tests its best urban students for those, not the average person.
On Those 'Stunning' Shanghai Test Scores
How frightened should we be about the latest proof of Chinese dominance?
Plus I don't know if you know/knew many Chinese students in college, but cheating is rampant and nearly universal due competitiveness.
My hunch is that the Chinese are like everyone else in terms of IQ distribution, but the one child policy hampered them since it really only was enforced strickly in urban areas. Farmers could have a second child officially, but from what I've heard from Chinese students even that wasn't really enforced for that group.
Interesting. But I find it hard to believe that Chinese are innately significantly duller than other East Asians, such as Japanese and South Koreans. Taiwan also performs pretty well on the PISA exam, and its population is something like 84% Chinese, so the 16% or so Aboriginal population does very possibly bring Taiwan's PISA exam scores down a bit.
which mean,that survived worst.Those who always obeyed genociders,and helped them if they could get something from it.
Indeed.Died thse who fought or only be decent,survived bandits and NKWD agents.Well,some lucky one and specialists,too - but it was negative selection.
Nutrition has more impact on intelligence in large populations than genetics. Taiwan is not Communist.
Sure, nutrition can play a role. My guess is that about half of the China-India average IQ difference is environmental rather than genetic, for instance.
You were just saying you found it hard to believe Chinese were duller than other southeast Asians. I contend that if there were two sets of identical twins that paired up and one couple stayed on the mainland with Mao Tse Tsung and the other escaped to Taiwan with Chang Kai Shek the children of the couple that escaped to Taiwan would be smarter because they didn't suffer through the Great Leap Forward. High test scores in capitalist nations aren't indicative of intelligence in Communist nations because in one system parents can buy food and in the other they get what a bureaucrat who doesn't understand nutrition and can't hear the children complain about hunger says they need, which is probably less than the next higher level bureaucrat says because he's siphoning some off.