The Americas ðŸ‡§ðŸ‡· Federative Republic of Brazil Discussion Megathread

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gral

gral

Well-known member
Sergeant Foley said:
2022 Brazilian Presidential election polls:
Datafolha (September 8, 2022)
Lula: 45%
Bolsonaro: 34%

Datafolha (September 13, 2022)
Lula: 45%
Bolsonaro: 33%

@gral @Cherico @Tiamat @Buba @WolfBear @bintananth @The Immortal Watch Dog @49ersfootball
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Don't trust Datafolha - they, together with IPEC(former IBOPE) are the most biased of the polls towards Lula(and their polls are being paid by both PT and Globo, which is locked in a struggle to get Bolsonaro out of government). Given what has been happening since early August, there simply is no way that Bolsonaro is 10-12% behind Lula.

A majority of polls is showing either Bolsonaro slightly behind or(with increasing frequency) slightly ahead of Lula. Most noticeably, Quaest(which was showing similar results to Datafolha and IPEC until 2 weeks ago) is now showing Bolsonaro at 40%, Lula at 36%, with the projected trend favouring Bolsonaro. A lesser known poll had Bolsonaro at 42%, Lula at 37% - and I'm beginning to think they are closer to the current situation. In my state(Rio de Janeiro - 3rd largest electorate), one of the most left-leaning of Brazil, Bolsonaro is now ahead. He's also ahead at Minas Gerais(2nd largest electorate - and one said to always reflect the end result of the election) by a larger margin.

Bolsonaro has been, since late July, steadily gaining lots of terrain. I once predicted(in this thread, I think) Bolsonaro would win 53-47 in the second round. I now think he will do better than that, with a small chance of him winning on the first round.
 
Sergeant Foley

Sergeant Foley

Well-known member
gral said:
Don't trust Datafolha - they, together with IPEC(former IBOPE) are the most biased of the polls towards Lula(and their polls are being paid by both PT and Globo, which is locked in a struggle to get Bolsonaro out of government). Given what has been happening since early August, there simply is no way that Bolsonaro is 10-12% behind Lula.

A majority of polls is showing either Bolsonaro slightly behind or(with increasing frequency) slightly ahead of Lula. Most noticeably, Quaest(which was showing similar results to Datafolha and IPEC until 2 weeks ago) is now showing Bolsonaro at 40%, Lula at 36%, with the projected trend favouring Bolsonaro. A lesser known poll had Bolsonaro at 42%, Lula at 37% - and I'm beginning to think they are closer to the current situation. In my state(Rio de Janeiro - 3rd largest electorate), one of the most left-leaning of Brazil, Bolsonaro is now ahead. He's also ahead at Minas Gerais(2nd largest electorate - and one said to always reflect the end result of the election) by a larger margin.

Bolsonaro has been, since late July, steadily gaining lots of terrain. I once predicted(in this thread, I think) Bolsonaro would win 53-47 in the second round. I now think he will do better than that, with a small chance of him winning on the first round.
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You're thinking Bolsonaro is using the Youngkin playbook?
 
W

WolfBear

Well-known member
gral said:
Immigration is not an electoral issue here; none of the candidates have, AFAIK, ever commented on that.
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Well, I'm just wondering because, in theory, if Brazil wants a population boost, then it could accept many more immigrants from places like India, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and East Asia. India especially is a huge reservoir for potential immigrants considering that it has over a billion people. A larger population means a larger GDP and thus more power and influence.

Not familiar with what would that be.
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Using white anger over things such as critical race theory to mobilize the white vote in order to win elections. It's named after Glenn Youngkin, the current Virginia governor who won using this approach in 2021.
 
gral

gral

Well-known member
WolfBear said:
Well, I'm just wondering because, in theory, if Brazil wants a population boost, then it could accept many more immigrants from places like India, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and East Asia. India especially is a huge reservoir for potential immigrants considering that it has over a billion people. A larger population means a larger GDP and thus more power and influence.
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Brazil doesn't seem to desire a population boost, because it doesn't seem to even be aware that it's going to finish its demographic transition, and have its population begin to shrink, in the next decade. Something that is going to bring us no end of grief, and should have already been planned for, but we as a country seem to be worried exclusively about the present right now.

WolfBear said:
Using white anger over things such as critical race theory to mobilize the white vote in order to win elections. It's named after Glenn Youngkin, the current Virginia governor who won using this approach in 2021.
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He already is the candidate of almost all whom are pissed with this leftist identitarian crap - no matter which race they belong to. He won in 2018 in part by being that. What I think is happening is that Lula and PT thought they had a stronger hand than they effectively had, found out how crap their hand really was, and tried(since this April at least) to bluff their way into victory. And now the bluff has been called.
 
W

WolfBear

Well-known member
gral said:
Brazil doesn't seem to desire a population boost, because it doesn't seem to even be aware that it's going to finish its demographic transition, and have its population begin to shrink, in the next decade. Something that is going to bring us no end of grief, and should have already been planned for, but we as a country seem to be worried exclusively about the present right now.



He already is the candidate of almost all whom are pissed with this leftist identitarian crap - no matter which race they belong to. He won in 2018 in part by being that. What I think is happening is that Lula and PT thought they had a stronger hand than they effectively had, found out how crap their hand really was, and tried(since this April at least) to bluff their way into victory. And now the bluff has been called.
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Once Brazilians will find out about this, though, will they become more supportive of mass immigration into their country? At least so long as it doesn't come from heavily Muslim countries? Hindus and non-Muslim Asians often make pretty good immigrants. :)

Bluff in what way?
 
gral

gral

Well-known member
WolfBear said:
Once Brazilians will find out about this, though, will they become more supportive of mass immigration into their country? At least so long as it doesn't come from heavily Muslim countries? Hindus and non-Muslim Asians often make pretty good immigrants. :)
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Hard to say; I think people will care once the economy starts shrinking noticeably(by the 2040s is my guess), and they probably will see immigrants as competition.

WolfBear said:
Bluff in what way?
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Lula's campaign team(and their allies, mainly in the big media organizations - especially Globo) has been trying to overstate support for Lula(and downplay support for Bolsonaro) since the first semester of this year, in order to try to get the so called 'useful vote'('only Lula is capable of facing Bolsonaro' or 'Bolsonaro loses to every other candidate in the second round, why not vote for someone else with better chances to winning over Lula?') - this plays a big part on the Datafolha/IPEC poll results. The crowds of Bolsonaro supporters on the Bicentennial of the Independence crushed that narrative, though.

Now Lula's campaign is worried about losing votes to Ciro Gomes, which is presenting himself as a better candidate to face Bolsonaro. Lula's pitiful showing on the TV debates and interviews also did him no favours - Lula only did OK on the Globo interview, where the interviewers unashamedly kissed his ass the entire interview - everywhere else, he crumpled like wet tissue whenever people didn't accept his bullshit.
 
W

WolfBear

Well-known member
gral said:
Hard to say; I think people will care once the economy starts shrinking noticeably(by the 2040s is my guess), and they probably will see immigrants as competition.



Lula's campaign team(and their allies, mainly in the big media organizations - especially Globo) has been trying to overstate support for Lula(and downplay support for Bolsonaro) since the first semester of this year, in order to try to get the so called 'useful vote'('only Lula is capable of facing Bolsonaro' or 'Bolsonaro loses to every other candidate in the second round, why not vote for someone else with better chances to winning over Lula?') - this plays a big part on the Datafolha/IPEC poll results. The crowds of Bolsonaro supporters on the Bicentennial of the Independence crushed that narrative, though.

Now Lula's campaign is worried about losing votes to Ciro Gomes, which is presenting himself as a better candidate to face Bolsonaro. Lula's pitiful showing on the TV debates and interviews also did him no favours - Lula only did OK on the Globo interview, where the interviewers unashamedly kissed his ass the entire interview - everywhere else, he crumpled like wet tissue whenever people didn't accept his bullshit.
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There's a keyhole solution here; specifically charging immigrants some kind of entry surtax or something like that. Or maybe denying immigrants citizenship and instead making them lifetime guest workers and taxing an additional part of their income and giving the money to natives. Of course, immigrants' children would become citizens due to birthright citizenship in Brazil.

Interesting.
 
W

WolfBear

Well-known member
A highly relevant map to this thread:

WolfBear said:
Historical population density of Brazil:

80ae76bd378fac8c55223617e4fcfb8c4b8f43d8.gif
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