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The Americas Federative Republic of Brazil Discussion Megathread

Sergeant Foley

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Update on accusations of fraud: Claiming fraud is easy, the hard part if providing evidence.

Thankfully, unlike the USA elections, Brazilian election infrastructure was build with a underlying assumption people would try and steal. This has come to bite elites in the ass, as it has made fraud a lot harder. And we now have some pretty damning evidence to demand a strong audit.


This live was done by a Argentinean lawyer, alongside Brazilian colleagues and other experts and such. It's pretty long, mostly in portuguese. However the main crux of the arguments going on can be summarized in a single trend of anomalies. You see Brazil has universal voter ID. You are also mandated to vote in the elections. To make it work and keep it running at a acceptable pace, each voter is assigned to a single electronic urn. When election day comes you go to the voting site (normally a school, private or public, or a local big government building) where all the urns have been placed and the election officials around to check the ID. Each urn is referred to as a Electoral Section.

A highly unusual number of electoral sections have registered over 90% of votes going to Lula. And some have registered 100% Lula votes, none to Bolsonaro whatsoever. This is simply not statistically possible, especially not in a election that was this close with a single percent of different. A few over the entire country? Sure, could happen. Over A HUNDRED? Nah, it sussy.

Here is a excel spreadsheet showing the mega sus.


For comparisson, not ONE ELECTORAL ZONE HAS 100% BOLSONARO VOTES. The toppest of the top percentage he got in the most hardcore places was 98.78%

Things will be getting really interesting... The snake is gonna smoke...
Can you say VOTER FRAUD?
 

gral

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Things will be getting really interesting... The snake is gonna smoke...
It won't. For one big reason: sample size. Burden of proof for nullifying an election is huge; one would have to prove some(I forget the exact numbers, but would be at least that) 30% of votes were altered. And no one does vote fraud on that scale; remember, one million votes is less than 0.66% of all possible voters. No one will ever be able to prove voter fraud for the tribunal's satisfaction.
 

Sobek

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Almost like the system has been built to make fraud possible but look really hard isn't it?

Also the tribunal will indeed never agree, they will demand insane levels of evidence that cannot be reached. Just like they deboonked Bolsonaro's proof of election propaganda law violation by using literal twitter hearsay as a source because it agreed with them.
 

Terthna

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It won't. For one big reason: sample size. Burden of proof for nullifying an election is huge; one would have to prove some(I forget the exact numbers, but would be at least that) 30% of votes were altered. And no one does vote fraud on that scale; remember, one million votes is less than 0.66% of all possible voters. No one will ever be able to prove voter fraud for the tribunal's satisfaction.
Even if they could prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that many votes had been altered, there's an even bigger reason the government wouldn't do anything about it; in order for something of that scale to even be possible, the whole system would have to be corrupt to the point where you'd essentially be asking criminals to punish themselves for their crimes.
 

gral

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Even if they could prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that many votes had been altered, there's an even bigger reason the government wouldn't do anything about it; in order for something of that scale to even be possible, the whole system would have to be corrupt to the point where you'd essentially be asking criminals to punish themselves for their crimes.
I thought that was already implied, but yes. One thing people have to remember(and I forgot it a few times during this election and 2018, so I don't think too badly of people forgetting this) is that the Brazilian electoral system is, just like most of the legal system, effectively built to give legitimacy to the status quo. Bolsonaro in 2018 was an outlier(not because of himself, but of what he was saying), and people moved to either neutralize or absorb him. Further outliers will face a much more difficult path, until the whole thing comes crashing down.
 

49ersfootball

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It won't. For one big reason: sample size. Burden of proof for nullifying an election is huge; one would have to prove some(I forget the exact numbers, but would be at least that) 30% of votes were altered. And no one does vote fraud on that scale; remember, one million votes is less than 0.66% of all possible voters. No one will ever be able to prove voter fraud for the tribunal's satisfaction.
Howdy from the Alamo City. Anything new in the Brazilian Spring ?
 

gral

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Howdy from the Alamo City. Anything new in the Brazilian Spring ?
*snort* We're in a country mostly located between the Equator and the Tropic of Capricorn - we don't really do Spring (or any distinct seasons for that matter) here.

It seems Bolsonaro's party will try to seek an annulment of the 2022 Election. No chance of that happening. I wonder why they are doing that(remember, Bolsonaro isn't the party leader; why would the party leader, an old hand at both parliamentarian politics and corruption, go for that?).
 

49ersfootball

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*snort* We're in a country mostly located between the Equator and the Tropic of Capricorn - we don't really do Spring (or any distinct seasons for that matter) here.

It seems Bolsonaro's party will try to seek an annulment of the 2022 Election. No chance of that happening. I wonder why they are doing that(remember, Bolsonaro isn't the party leader; why would the party leader, an old hand at both parliamentarian politics and corruption, go for that?).
But the conservatives have majorities in both chambers of the Brazilian National Congress including Governorships.

Doubling-down on Lula not finishing his 3rd term. I'll be shocked if he seeks reelection to 4th term in 2026.
 

gral

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But the conservatives have majorities in both chambers of the Brazilian National Congress including Governorships.
No; candidates of the Centrão running on allegedly-conservative platforms won majorities. Lula has the wallet. And his supporters are already saying what they won't get passed through Congress, they will try to pass it through the Supreme Court. Congress will strike a deal with him. I don't expect the opposition to Lula to count more than 50 deputies, and some 10-15 senators.
 

49ersfootball

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No; candidates of the Centrão running on allegedly-conservative platforms won majorities. Lula has the wallet. And his supporters are already saying what they won't get passed through Congress, they will try to pass it through the Supreme Court. Congress will strike a deal with him. I don't expect the opposition to Lula to count more than 50 deputies, and some 10-15 senators.
What about the Governors ?
 

gral

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What about the Governors ?
At least a few, including the governor-elect of São Paulo(which people have been saying would be Bolsonaro's successor) are saying they'll look for the interests of their states, which is a nice way of saying they are open to deals.

Truth is, if Lula does well in the first few months, he'll face no significant opposition; if he does poorly, everyone that is now open to compromise will remember they got elected as Bolsonaro's supporters and work to make his life Hell on Earth.
 

Sobek

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The entire system is fucked. When Lula got in the 1st time Lula was riding the boom in the commodities economy and could afford to sell the future to buy the present. Then that ended, Dilma came in and the house of card of debt ended in the "Pedalada fiscal" that got her impeached. Her vice then got called illegitimate and the thing was acused of being a coup by lefty retards without a understanding of economy.

Now Lula is coming back, but there is no commodities economy to suck the profits off for corruption and vote buying. The retarded 13 voters wanted 1st term Lula, they will get 2nd term Dilma.
 

Cherico

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The entire system is fucked. When Lula got in the 1st time Lula was riding the boom in the commodities economy and could afford to sell the future to buy the present. Then that ended, Dilma came in and the house of card of debt ended in the "Pedalada fiscal" that got her impeached. Her vice then got called illegitimate and the thing was acused of being a coup by lefty retards without a understanding of economy.

Now Lula is coming back, but there is no commodities economy to suck the profits off for corruption and vote buying. The retarded 13 voters wanted 1st term Lula, they will get 2nd term Dilma.
Cant really judge Brazil on that front, the entire planet very badly mismanaged things during the good times and now the party is over and the bill is due.
 

49ersfootball

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At least a few, including the governor-elect of São Paulo(which people have been saying would be Bolsonaro's successor) are saying they'll look for the interests of their states, which is a nice way of saying they are open to deals.

Truth is, if Lula does well in the first few months, he'll face no significant opposition; if he does poorly, everyone that is now open to compromise will remember they got elected as Bolsonaro's supporters and work to make his life Hell on Earth.
Big question is whether Lula gets a historic 4th term in 2026 ? I highly DOUBT it due to his age.
 
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