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The Americas Federative Republic of Brazil Discussion Megathread

Sergeant Foley

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The main hopespot is how allies and alligned politicians to Bolsonaro are now the majority on Chamber and Senate. They can stonewall and block most of the horrendous shit Lula and his backers want like the end of gig jobs and "mo' money fo dem pograms".
The Conservatives pretty much will use McConnell Playbook of obstructing, undermining and block Lula's initiatives.
 

gral

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The main hopespot is how allies and alligned politicians to Bolsonaro are now the majority on Chamber and Senate. They can stonewall and block most of the horrendous shit Lula and his backers want like the end of gig jobs and "mo' money fo dem pograms".
I... do not have this hope.

To me, the first big alert that Bolsonaro would probably lose was his own party leader saying that if Bolsonaro lost his party would be split, because there would be a group that would be in favour of opposing Lula no matter what(thus implying that HE was open to a deal with Lula). Also, the pentecostal evangelists(which theoretically were big Bolsonaro supporters) were showing signs of defecting to Lula's side on late Sunday, with some calling for prayers for Lula.

It seems to me that the real opposition will be a group of 40-70 deputies(out of 513), with many in the supposed 'opposition' merely raising the price of their bribes. Haven't you heard about the "orçamento secreto" they were harping on so much. It is now being called "emendas do relator". Also, if things get as bad as in Argentina, the same motherfuckers of the previous paragraph will say they 'gave shelter' to the real opposition and leverage that to be part of the next government...
 

Sergeant Foley

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I... do not have this hope.

To me, the first big alert that Bolsonaro would probably lose was his own party leader saying that if Bolsonaro lost his party would be split, because there would be a group that would be in favour of opposing Lula no matter what(thus implying that HE was open to a deal with Lula). Also, the pentecostal evangelists(which theoretically were big Bolsonaro supporters) were showing signs of defecting to Lula's side on late Sunday, with some calling for prayers for Lula.

It seems to me that the real opposition will be a group of 40-70 deputies(out of 513), with many in the supposed 'opposition' merely raising the price of their bribes. Haven't you heard about the "orçamento secreto" they were harping on so much. It is now being called "emendas do relator". Also, if things get as bad as in Argentina, the same motherfuckers of the previous paragraph will say they 'gave shelter' to the real opposition and leverage that to be part of the next government...
What about the Brazilian Armed Forces?
 

DarthOne

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Election Wizard
@ElectionWiz



BREAKING: Thousands of protesters concerned about the legitimacy of the Brazilian Presidential Election swarm the military barracks in Rio de Janeiro. They pled military commanders to intervene.



From
Leonardo

12:51 PM · Nov 2, 2022·Twitter Web App



JCBr
@JBrandaox



Replying to
@ElectionWiz
It's not just in Rio de Janeiro, it's happening all over Brazil, this civil resistance happens all over the country. The Brazilian media is silent, it connived with the coup in the elections for its own financial interests. We didn't have clean elections!


1:09 PM · Nov 2, 2022·Twitter Web App
 

gral

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What about the Brazilian Armed Forces?
If they wanted to act, they would have done it before the elections.

Currently, there are some 6-8,000 military and ex-military officers on government posts filled by appointment("cargos comissionados"). The 'military intervention' happened the day Bolsonaro got in, and they allowed everything that happened up to today to happen in their watch.

For their stalwart work in 'defending the democratic institutions'(emphasis in 'institutions' mine), they will be rewarded with a bloodless purge, a complete removal from any sort of political power, control of what gets taught in the military academies and even more marginalization from society than what they have been experiencing since 1985. I find it this is exactly what they deserve.
 

Sobek

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Bolsonaro gave out another statement, this time on his YT channel. Again he thanks supporters and tells them he understands the frustration and anger (no mention of election fraud, which is good IMO as if it happened he should wait to announced it with proof already in hands) but asks that they do not block the highways.

 

Sergeant Foley

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If they wanted to act, they would have done it before the elections.

Currently, there are some 6-8,000 military and ex-military officers on government posts filled by appointment("cargos comissionados"). The 'military intervention' happened the day Bolsonaro got in, and they allowed everything that happened up to today to happen in their watch.

For their stalwart work in 'defending the democratic institutions'(emphasis in 'institutions' mine), they will be rewarded with a bloodless purge, a complete removal from any sort of political power, control of what gets taught in the military academies and even more marginalization from society than what they have been experiencing since 1985. I find it this is exactly what they deserve.
You think Lula is plotting to up the ante even further against the Brazilian Armed Forces?
 

Sergeant Foley

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Bolsonaro gave out another statement, this time on his YT channel. Again he thanks supporters and tells them he understands the frustration and anger (no mention of election fraud, which is good IMO as if it happened he should wait to announced it with proof already in hands) but asks that they do not block the highways.

Interpreting this as a concession and the transition will be smooth. Big question is whether Bolsonaro attends Lula's third inauguration?
 

gral

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You think Lula is plotting to up the ante even further against the Brazilian Armed Forces?
Not only Lula, the entire political class. It is an open secret that one of the objectives of the political class since 1985 is to remove political power from the Armed Forces - they want the military to be as politically relevant as the Imperial Family.
 

Sergeant Foley

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Not only Lula, the entire political class. It is an open secret that one of the objectives of the political class since 1985 is to remove political power from the Armed Forces - they want the military to be as politically relevant as the Imperial Family.
Similar to what happened to the Argentine Armed Forces when the Junta fell from power in 1983?
 

gral

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I see many Bolsonaro supporters are taking over the streets across the country. I wonder how long before Lula & his cronies retaliate by having them tortured, killed, disappeared ?
It won't come to that(not now). They will face lawfare, though - I know a guy who left his kids in the car to join a manifestation got arrested(and will probably lose custody of his children).
 

49ersfootball

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It won't come to that(not now). They will face lawfare, though - I know a guy who left his kids in the car to join a manifestation got arrested(and will probably lose custody of his children).
Lost custody of his kids because he participated in manifestation protest ? WTF ?
 

Sobek

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Pretty obvious the angle was "oh he left his kids in the car, so he is unfit to be a father because they could have had heatstroke". And yes it would have been that flimsy.
 

gral

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Pretty obvious the angle was "oh he left his kids in the car, so he is unfit to be a father because they could have had heatstroke". And yes it would have been that flimsy.
To add to the above, we've had a bit of a media-fuelled hysteria over cases of people leaving children in the car(while running an errand or something like that) and those children dying of heatstroke. Politicians being what they are, the consequence was leaving your children locked inside your car can get you a reckless endangerment charge... which is exactly what they did with the guy. And they will use the charge to make him lose custody of their children.

BTW, I do think people who bring children or elderly to a political manifestation are idiots at best, idiotic scum at worst(with the most probably option being the latter) - it is extremely obvious right now that what is allowed for people of one political persuasion is not for those of the other, and trying to copy the tactics of one side will only get insult added to your injury.
 

Sobek

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Before the election the media was complaining that Bolsonaro was using amendments to stretch the public spending with the nickname "secret budget". Now they have changed to referring to said amendment as "rapporteur's amendments"



They are also complaining that "Bolsonaro left Brazil broke" because they wanna pass 200 billion R$ in gibs and bribes but there isn't enough money, despite the massive economic boom Brazil had during his term and the fact we weathered the pandemic economic collapse better than almost anyone.

And of course Lula and his team are moving quite fast to try and block Bolsonaro from ever running again, under the laughable excuses of "questioning the democratic process" and "economic help close to election" as if the courts and deep state didn't openly side with Lula or the entire fucking PT plataform isn't entirely built on gib me dats. The don't realize the man is a symptom not the cause. Much like Trump in a way. Except unlike Trump there are many more parties in Brazil who will be glad to run their own right wingers inspired by Bolsonaro and swarm the election, guaranteeing a 2nd round where they cannot hope to win without the cheat code of having the 9 finger's image to use as a crutch.
 

Sobek

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Update on accusations of fraud: Claiming fraud is easy, the hard part if providing evidence.

Thankfully, unlike the USA elections, Brazilian election infrastructure was build with a underlying assumption people would try and steal. This has come to bite elites in the ass, as it has made fraud a lot harder. And we now have some pretty damning evidence to demand a strong audit.


This live was done by a Argentinean lawyer, alongside Brazilian colleagues and other experts and such. It's pretty long, mostly in portuguese. However the main crux of the arguments going on can be summarized in a single trend of anomalies. You see Brazil has universal voter ID. You are also mandated to vote in the elections. To make it work and keep it running at a acceptable pace, each voter is assigned to a single electronic urn. When election day comes you go to the voting site (normally a school, private or public, or a local big government building) where all the urns have been placed and the election officials around to check the ID. Each urn is referred to as a Electoral Section.

A highly unusual number of electoral sections have registered over 90% of votes going to Lula. And some have registered 100% Lula votes, none to Bolsonaro whatsoever. This is simply not statistically possible, especially not in a election that was this close with a single percent of different. A few over the entire country? Sure, could happen. Over A HUNDRED? Nah, it sussy.

Here is a excel spreadsheet showing the mega sus.


For comparisson, not ONE ELECTORAL ZONE HAS 100% BOLSONARO VOTES. The toppest of the top percentage he got in the most hardcore places was 98.78%

Things will be getting really interesting... The snake is gonna smoke...
 
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