Effects on the July 1914 crisis if Conservative government is leading in Britain?

[stevep]

Now, isn't this a bit hyperbolic?


A good point.
Nevertheless in the first week of August the effects of the German invasion are impossible to predict.

Possibly a little but Germany is building a large fleet and its conquest of most of western Europe - which would be the case if France fell, would pose serious problems as it did in 1940.

On the 2nd point its probably fairly clear where the Germans are going and that nothing going through Belgium or Luxembourg. As such France faces no serious external threat at the moment. Also if Germany has decided some years before to head east would they have built up all the railway lines and facilities in the relatively thinly settled lands bordering southern Belgium?

 

[Buba]

if Germany has decided some years before to head east would they have built up all the railway lines and facilities in the relatively thinly settled lands bordering southern Belgium?

Indubitably.
Germany already had built up uneconomic railways in the east too.
This is a map of the rail network in Poland (sometime after WWII). Very few of those lines were constructed post-1914.
Guess where the German border was ...

 

[Aaron Fox]

@Buba you forget that the only other way to get massive amounts of goods, material, and people over land is via railroads. Poland doesn't have the water networks that nations like, oh, France or the United States have. So if you want to move anything over land and not take forever and a half to do it, you'll need railroads.

 

[WolfBear]

What if a relatively late PoD places the Conservatives at the head of the British governing coalition by some point in 1912, 1913, or very early 1914, possibly headed by Arthur Balfour, instead of OTL's Liberal government headed by Asquith.

Furthermore, suppose a "butterfly net" means the Sarajevo assassination and July Crisis still occurs. Will Germany and Austria be estimating their situation or chances any differently with a Conservative government in Britain that is likely more vocally militarist and navalist, and possibly more openly pro-Entente as well?

How will the public rhetoric and private diplomacy of the Conservative government match or diverge from that of Asquith and Grey? Would they issue explicit warnings and promises that war on the Entente powers means war with Britain, either publicly or privately?

Would they wait upon events developing in Belgium and use that as a focal point of argumentation in public rhetoric and with wavering parliamentarians?

Moltke the Younger could still be pushing for war, but I'm not sure that Bethmann-Hollweg would. B-H's stance on this might depend on just how distracted Britain is by the situation in Ireland. Of course, a lot might also depend on just how vocal the Conservative British government would be in any pre-war warnings that it will give to Germany.

Indubitably.
Germany already had built up uneconomic railways in the east too.
This is a map of the rail network in Poland (sometime after WWII). Very few of those lines were constructed post-1914.
Guess where the German border was ...

What year is this map from?