Not to digress, but this is precisely why I expect things to come undone mid-century, rather than at the very end. Sure, people have too much to lose and the elites have staying power now, but the difference is that (unlike the Optimates) these assholes seem dead-set on pissing it all away and (if anything) accelerating a cycle that'd have otherwise taken much longer to play out.
Between tut-tutting at the commoners as their gas prices surge, going around mask-free while punishing everyone else for doing the same in a "deadly pandemic", or (my personal favorite) parading a senile, half-dead octogenarian on TV and pretending he's POTUS... I'd say these guys are poking the bear both extra fast and extra hard, much more so than their Roman counterparts ever did.
I've always said that based on both historical precedents for this kind of thing (which offer a 'typical' time-frame) and current trends, the present period will only end in the last stages of this century. I stand by that analysis. This does not suggest that things just remain peaceful and "as they are", and then suddenly erupt. Rather, I expect a series of escalations. Everything points in that direction.
Look at the current situation. There's a lot of people in the Netherlands very unhappy with the government, but if you held elections today, the mainstream parties would still stay in power. People aren't willing to vote for a drastic change, because that's uncertain, and uncertainty scares them. This situation persists until enough people are more scared of the
certain doom they face if things go on as they have than they are of the
uncertainty that a drastic change will bring.
We're not nearly there yet.
We'll see failed, abortive attempts to overthrow the current order before we ultimately get a successful attempt. And in the mean-time, those failed attempts will allow the establishment to assume (essentially) despotic power "in response to insurrectionism". The January 6th thing is a taste of that. Just a taste. A little preview.
As
@Cherico says: it's sort of a see-saw, where any populist success is going to prompt retribution. Let me suggest a scenario. Not necessarily what I think will happen, but the
sort of thing that's going to happen. We're currently seeing a lot of shit and discontent. I'm not difficult to imagine the MAGA movement sweeping back into power in '24. What do they inherit? An ecnomy going down the drain. Even vastly improving policies
immediately cannot arrest the crash. We're in a nose-dive, globally, and the causes are structural. If MAGA winst in '24, they win a poisoned chalice.
And they'll get all the blame for all the ills. And in '28, the establishment takes back power. Again. Things will be even more contested, embittered and radicalised this time around. More vindictive, still. If they can frame the next MAGA administration for the collapsing economy hitting rock bottom (and if they can "fortify" the elections sufficiently), then the establishment administration that follows may well get a majority in both houses. Even if only for a while, they can use that to push through their whole agenda. Anything they want. Federal "pro-choice" legislation. Court-packing. New laws against "domestic terrorists". Gun laws. You name it, they'll do it.
Not just for its own sake, but to infuriate their opponents. So that as
many loose cannons as possible will fire off. And then they'll use
that as an excuse to crack down even harder. Which will radicalise the populist opposition even more, "justifying" even more crack-downs... You see the cycle here? The goal will be to essentially
cause an insurrection, or something they can half-way believably
call an insurrection. And then they'll crush it relentlessly, and they'll basically outlaw the whole MAGA movement.
I think that before you reach 2030, there's a good chance you'll see new electoral laws that disenfranchise all members of "domestic terrorist organisations"... which will encompass the bulk of the populist opposition. Your enemies can't vote you out of office if they're not allowed to vote. (And if they try to use violent means... that just proves that they're terrorists, and that your punitive legislation is justified.)
There. How's that for a scenario? Again, I'm not saying that's the play-by-play. But that's how these things have gone many times before. And it works, too. Better than you'd think. It'll give them a new lease on power for a good 20 years. Far more brutal, overtly despotic power than they use currently, but still power. Not seriously contested.
By that latter point, we're indeed half-way through the century. And yes, that's when I'd expect the civil wars to start. But note: wars, plural. This, too, is the sort of things that comes in waves. I think it only
ends by the century's close.
Let's see how it plays out.