Election 2020 Democrat Nightmare Scenario Trump Loses by 5+ Million and still wins

[Big Steve]

I am referring to the fact that US House Districts are apportioned based on total population, not registered voting population. This is a result of language enabling the 3/5ths clause to be meaningful that remained in force when the 3/5ths clause was itself struck down.

Ah. Presumably because it also applied to immigrants, and plenty of Northern states benefited from that (indeed, arguably that and the ban on importing slaves helped set the ticking clock on the slavery-based economy of the South).

 

[FriedCFour]

I'd argue it's a terrible and unsatisfactory situation, but the problem is that the United States has no plausible pathway to reform on this issue. I understand the importance of checks and balances, but sometimes I really think the US has gone too far with them. You have so many checks and balances that needed reforms can't happen, which results in large portions of the country feeling disenchanted, irrelevant, and unheard. That leads to polarisation, fractiousness, and potentially much worse.

Large portions of the country feel disenchanted, irrelevant, and unheard either because they didnt win or dont think politicians represent their interests. Doesnt have much to do with the electoral college.

 

[Unhappy Anchovy]

To be quite honest, nobody talks about it except me, perhaps because they are afraid, but we are in the middle of a War of Laws thanks to liberal states and municipalities asserting themselves against the federal government. That is far more dangerous than anything else going on right now.

Haven't Republican or conservative areas done the same thing? One thinks of e.g. Roy Moore telling Alabama judges not to issue same-sex marriage licenses. Civil disobedience on the municipal level is not something that only liberals do.

I think the presidency has to be counter-majoritarian, simply because I think the natural tendency is for power to concentrate into the hands of one man.
[...]
I think that keeping the office of the presidency counter-majoritarian incentivizes people to devolve power back to the Congress, or at least puts the brakes on turning the presidency into an elected dictatorship.

Why have the office of president at all, on this logic? Why not adopt a parliamentary system?

Large portions of the country feel disenchanted, irrelevant, and unheard either because they didnt win or dont think politicians represent their interests. Doesnt have much to do with the electoral college.

I feel like there is some sense of disenchantment being expressed when people say to me, "I voted, but it won't have any effect, I'm a deep [red/blue] state".

 

[FriedCFour]

I feel like there is some sense of disenchantment being expressed when people say to me, "I voted, but it won't have any effect, I'm a deep [red/blue] state".

Yeah there is that. But in all honesty that's because people value the federal level and presidential elections way too much.

 

[LordSunhawk]

In my opinion it COULD be a nightmare scenario if it causes passions to ignite, or it could be a wakeup call that radicalism of any sort is ultimately self-defeating. If the Democrats realize that galloping to the hardest edges of the Left rather than sticking with mainstream liberalism is a losing proposition, then they may correct course, much as Republicans long ago realized that they needed to jettison their crazies (the John Birch Society anybody?).

What is going to be interesting is the growing amount of evidence of how popular Trump is in various minority communities, especially amongst African-Americans. For generations Democrat leaders have promised those communities the sun, the moon, the stars, and various other celestial objects in exchange for their votes... and never bothered to deliver. Trump said that his policies and actions would benefit the various minority communities in concrete, measurable ways... and delivered (black unemployment is at record lows, for one thing...). Everytime Trump goes to bat for some minority person being persecuted (which he's done regularly) he further illustrates that the institutional left is either incapable of dealing with the issues facing minorities... or simply unwilling to do so.

My hope is that people rediscover the lost art of disagreeing with the substance of a person's ideas, without attacking the person. My wish is that we realize that neither the left nor the right have a monopoly on truth, that neither liberals nor conservative are ipso facto monsters to be destroyed but fellow citizens to coexist with and persuade.

What gives me hope is the realization that for all the sound and fury of the modern age, most of the discourse is actually (on a historical basis) quite tame. That the invective and vitriol of the debate is not even close to rising to the level of personal vitriol and venom of the past. So long as we are willing to debate with words, not swords, I think we'll ultimately be fine. I just pray that nobody, on either side, decides to flip the equation.

EDIT - typos

 

[Yokkiziikzekker]

Lmgdao not gonna happen.

 

[Urabrask Revealed]

Lmgdao not gonna happen.

What is not going to happen?

 

[Comrade Clod]

Truthfully Trump winning at all in 2020 is, well, unlikely.

 

[Emperor Tippy]

Truthfully Trump winning at all in 2020 is, well, unlikely.

‘People don’t want to be stupid twice’: Diplomats brace for Trump 2020 win

Expectation that Trump will win could affect approach to negotiations with the US.

www.politico.eu

Diplomats around the world disagree with you. As do most political analysts.

 

[Comrade Clod]

‘People don’t want to be stupid twice’: Diplomats brace for Trump 2020 win

Expectation that Trump will win could affect approach to negotiations with the US.

www.politico.eu

Diplomats around the world disagree with you. As do most political analysts.

Most political analysts put it at 50/50 depending on factors.

That giant recession coming up? Makes me think it might less than 50/50 for the reelection. Still, early days yet and we don't even know his competitor so a solid guess is impossible.

 

[Emperor Tippy]

Most political analysts put it at 50/50 depending on factors.

That giant recession coming up? Makes me think it might less than 50/50 for the reelection. Still, early days yet and we don't even know his competitor so a solid guess is impossible.

We know the list of potential competitors. The only one on that list who stands a chance in hell of beating Trump is Biden. And that assumes that he can escape the primary without providing too many soundbites that will play poorly outside of the Democrat strongholds.

You don't win the Presidency in California, New York, or DC. You win it in the swing states and among the swing populations.

And yet the Democrat candidates are running to win California and New York at the expense of Pennsylvania and Ohio.

 

[Comrade Clod]

We know the list of potential competitors. The only one on that list who stands a chance in hell of beating Trump is Biden. And that assumes that he can escape the primary without providing too many soundbites that will play poorly outside of the Democrat strongholds.

You don't win the Presidency in California, New York, or DC. You win it in the swing states and among the swing populations.

And yet the Democrat candidates are running to win California and New York at the expense of Pennsylvania and Ohio.

I mean for Biden you might have a point with those. Of the candidates who can win the dem primary I think he's the most vulnerable. But Bernie? Man is practically made for swinging PA and a few other key states, Warren to a lesser extent as well, and Buttgieg is basically Biden without some of the bagage. Adding of course to the fact that Trump has done almost none of what he said he was going to do for those very same states.

New Factories? Nope, they closed anyway, some directly because of the new tariffs.

Farmers? Trump single handedly killed soybeans as a major US export to asia.

Minorities? Hahaha, no.

Now some of this might be surmountable. Trump is remarkably good at plunging headlong heedless of what other people tell him and despite some backfires it hasn't entirely failed him yet.

But then we have the recession. The recession which has been singled by a marker thats singled out every other recession in advance for the past century.

Trump needs to keep the voters from 2016 to win, and frankly I don't think he can do that well enough to have a sure win against any democratic candidate.

 

[LordSunhawk]

Funny how that market *always* signals recession, hence its perfect track record when one does occur. It's been 'signaling recession' according to the media since Trump was elected, and will continue signalling recession until he's out of office, regardless of if or when one occurs.

If I had a nickel for every time a recession has been predicted since Trump announced his candidacy to today, I'd be a rich rich man indeed.

 

[Emperor Tippy]

I mean for Biden you might have a point with those. Of the candidates who can win the dem primary I think he's the most vulnerable. But Bernie? Man is practically made for swinging PA and a few other key states,

Bernie is dead on arrival. Too many attack ads that write themselves. He has already lost every voter over fifty; they won't vote for the man who praises the USSR and breadlines. He loses the hispanic vote once it comes out how he kept trying to dump nuclear waste onto hispanic communities. Clips of him praising Venezuela and holding it up as an example of how to run a nation are also killer. Then there is the fact that his various proposals go over like a lead balloon with virtually every demographic that actually votes.

Warren to a lesser extent as well,

Also dead on arrival. There is literally no one in any sector of corporate America that will vote for her. Run her and you will suddenly see Big Tech supporting Trump (along with all of Wall Street and main street). The women is literally toxic to everyone with power, influence, or any economic relevance. And doesn't have the personal charisma to overcome that issue.

and Buttgieg is basically Biden without some of the bagage.

Buttgieg is a gay, white, Harvard lawyer. His appeal among the Urban African American community (and the Dem's can't afford any hit to AA turnout if they want to beat Trump) is nigh on non existent. They will stay home before they vote for the cocksucker. The same applies to the Muslim community (which tanks any chance of the Dem's winning Michigan) and, to a slightly lesser extent, to the Hispanic community.

Adding of course to the fact that Trump has done almost none of what he said he was going to do for those very same states.

New Factories? Nope, they closed anyway, some directly because of the new tariffs.

Farmers? Trump single handedly killed soybeans as a major US export to asia.

Minorities? Hahaha, no.

Now some of this might be surmountable. Trump is remarkably good at plunging headlong heedless of what other people tell him and despite some backfires it hasn't entirely failed him yet.

And then we have the recession. The recession which has been singled by a marker thats singled out every other recession in advance for the past century.

Trump needs to keep the voters from 2016 to win, and frankly I don't think he can do that well enough to have a sure win against any democratic candidate.

Trump has done what the voters who elected him wanted. He has been solid on judicial picks, solid on abortion, and at least seen to try on the rest. No one who voted for Trump in 2016 is going to vote for the Dem in 2020 with how the Democrats have been acting.

On the recession issue, it's a lot more complex than you seem to think. That actually could be an entirely separate thread.

 

[Comrade Clod]

Funny how that market *always* signals recession, hence its perfect track record when one does occur. It's been 'signaling recession' according to the media since Trump was elected, and will continue signalling recession until he's out of office, regardless of if or when one occurs.

If I had a nickel for every time a recession has been predicted since Trump announced his candidacy to today, I'd be a rich rich man indeed.

I'm not reffering to whatever the market has been saying.

I'm refering to the yield of US 10 year bonds dropping below that of 2 year bonds.

That right there? Thats an indicator that people really don't know WTF the future holds, and coincidentally is also linked to every major recession in the past 100 years. Now it is fair to say that, if Trump takes the right actions and is lucky, he might not actually face the consequences of said reccession (if he loses the election) or said recession could be minor (unlikely). But equally he could be fucked and have it spring early.

 

[Comrade Clod]

Bernie is dead on arrival. Too many attack ads that right themselves. He has already lost every voter over fifty; they won't vote for the man who praises the USSR and breadlines. He loses the hispanic vote once it comes out how he kept trying to dump nuclear waste onto hispanic communities. Clips of him praising Venezuela and holding it up as an example of how to run a nation are also killer. Then there is the fact that his various proposals go over like a lead balloon with virtually every demographic that actually votes.


Trump has done what the voters who elected him wanted. He has been solid on judicial picks, solid on abortion, and at least seen to try on the rest. No one who voted for Trump in 2016 is going to vote for the Dem in 2020 with how the Democrats have been acting.

On the recession issue, it's a lot more complex than you seem to think. That actually could be an entirely separate thread.

K ima adress the 2 important P's.

For Bernie? I honestly think thats untrue. Not the over 50's vote part, he's unlikely to score a full victory in that to be sure. Everything else though reads like what Republicans think he says vs what he's actually said. Alot of his core policies have become democratic core policies (EC reform and Medicare for All in particular), the latter of which is even popular across parties. Bernie also has popularity in, well, to put it simply when one looks at a donation map you have to take out Bernie to get everyone elses donations in. Man has a base and can use them. For broader popularity though, he does well in the Rust belt compared to other D candidates and also in New England, and is the 2nd choice generally for all other D candidate voters. Even to my surprise Biden voters.

He can win, if the party lets him, which is a whole other game.

As for Trump, Judicial picks and abortion are excellent in the south, he's doing a great job at sureing up the Evangelical voter base.

But he doesn't need the south, he's always been going to win the south. What Trump needs is the midwest, the area currently getting throughly screwed by his trade war, and if a recession hits will be screwed beyond belief, that he only narrowly won in the previous GE, and didn't even win the popular vote for.

If the above changes things might look good for old Orange, at the moment though i'm willing to role the dice.

 

[Emperor Tippy]

K ima adress the 2 important P's.

For Bernie? I honestly think thats untrue. Not the over 50's vote part, he's unlikely to score a full victory in that to be sure. Everything else though reads like what Republicans think he says vs what he's actually said.

No, this is literally stuff that he is on camera flat out saying; without any editing needed.

Alot of his core policies have become democratic core policies (EC reform and Medicare for All in particular), the latter of which is even popular across parties. Bernie also has popularity in, well, to put it simply when one looks at a donation map you have to take out Bernie to get everyone elses donations in. Man has a base and can use them. For broader popularity though, he does well in the Rust belt compared to other D candidates and also in New England, and is the 2nd choice generally for all other D candidate voters. Even to my surprise Biden voters.

Medicare for All polls well until you tell people that private insurance is going to be outlawed and their taxes are going to more than double to pay for it. Come the General, Trump is going to use Medicare for All to crucify any Dem who doesn't walk it back hard.

He can win, if the party lets him, which is a whole other game.

No, he really can't. This is a man who couldn't even make Hillary fight for it in a primary (she crushed him utterly). Trump will spend the entire campaign trail calling him Comrade Bernie and hammering that point home. His attack ads in Florida will be nothing but Bernie saying bread lines are good, praising Castro, and praising Chavez. That puts the state well out of his reach.

He will be portrayed as an old white dude who promises urban blacks nothing; they won't get out and vote for him.

As for Trump, Judicial picks and abortion are excellent in the south, he's doing a great job at sureing up the Evangelical voter base.

But he doesn't need the south, he's always been going to win the south. What Trump needs is the midwest, the area currently getting throughly screwed by his trade war, and if a recession hits will be screwed beyond belief, that he only narrowly won in the previous GE, and didn't even win the popular vote for.

If the above changes things might look good for old Orange, at the moment though i'm willing to role the dice.

Judicial picks and abortion play well everywhere except the urban areas. Trump did not become President thanks to the South, he became President thanks to the Amish.

Rural America is going to stick with him, even the people most screwed by his trade war. Not because they particularly like his trade policy but because on the issues that they truly care about the Dem positions are seen as anathema.

The Dem's are running towards their base, Trump is running away from his. Why? Because Trump doesn't need to do anything to turn out his base, the Democrats are doing that for him. He's not even trying to win over independents or swing voters, what Trump is trying to do is get potential Democrat voters to stay home come election day.

 

[Comrade Clod]

Trump is trying to do is get potential Democrat voters to stay home come election day.

Eh I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on most of what was said but this?

The words "haha, no" come to mind. Trump is about as likely to scrape up significant Dem support as Steve f*cking King. He's alienated minorities in their entirety, White suburbanites in similar numbers, and just about the entire farming and factory populace of the midwest.

No way in hell does he win the democratic voter base when he can't even ensure midterm victories in Alabama and almost lost Texas. (granted though, it is Ted Cruz)

 

[Emperor Tippy]

Eh I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on most of what was said but this?

The words "haha, no" come to mind. Trump is about as likely to scrape up significant Dem support as Steve f*cking King. He's alienated minorities in their entirety, White suburbanites in similar numbers, and just about the entire farming and factory populace of the midwest.

No way in hell does he win the democratic voter base when he can't even ensure midterm victories in Alabama and almost lost Texas. (granted though, it is Ted Cruz)

He doesn't need to win over Democrat voters or gain support from them. All he has to do is convince them not to show up at the polls come election day.

Convince college educated whites to not vote for the person who wants to more than double their taxes. Convince urban blacks that they don't want to vote for the old white guy who doesn't care about them. Convince college kids that they would rather play some more Fortnight than go to the polls. Etc.

 

[Comrade Clod]

He doesn't need to win over Democrat voters or gain support from them. All he has to do is convince them not to show up at the polls come election day.

Convince college educated whites to not vote for the person who wants to more than double their taxes. Convince urban blacks that they don't want to vote for the old white guy who doesn't care about them. Convince college kids that they would rather play some more Fortnight than go to the polls. Etc.

Except he can't convince any of those people.

Those people are the ones who hate him the most.