Austria-Hungary imposes regime change in Serbia in 1904-1905 while Russia is busy fighting Japan

WolfBear

Well-known member
What if Austria-Hungary imposes regime change in Serbia in 1904-1905 while Russia is busy fighting Japan in the Far East? The logic behind this is quite simple: The Obernovic dynasty in Serbia was pro-A-H while the new Karadordevic dynasty in Serbia was pro-Russian and pro-French. So, A-H will seek to restore the Serbian situation to what it was before 1903 while Russia is distracted elsewhere by finding whatever Obernovic royalty remain and installing one of them on the Serbian throne, if necessary, propping them up with A-H bayonets in the form of a long-term military basing agreement between A-H and the new A-H-installed Serbian government.

Anyway, how would the other European powers have reacted to this and what would the long-term effects of this have been? Any thoughts on this?

For reference, A-H would be belatedly responding to this specific Serbian event/development:

 

raharris1973

Well-known member
I've read someone else assert that in the few years after the May coup the Russians expected the Austrians might do exactly this and would have been prepared to suck it up.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Also, what exactly stopped Austria-Hungary from doing this? In hindsight, this seems like it would have been an extraordinarily smart move on their part. Do this in 1904-1905 when Russia is weak and distracted elsewhere so that it won't have to subsequently do this in 1914 when Russia can actually fight you over this issue.
 

TheRomanSlayer

Unipolarity is for Subhuman Trogdolytes
The Obrenovic dynasty was pretty much dead with the murder of the last Obrenovic king. Who else would become the new King of Serbia that is pro-Austrian in this scenario? The House of Petrovic-Njegos rules Montenegro, but is pretty much aligned with Russia, while the House of Karadjordjevic may seek more closer ties with France.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
The Obrenovic dynasty was pretty much dead with the murder of the last Obrenovic king. Who else would become the new King of Serbia that is pro-Austrian in this scenario? The House of Petrovic-Njegos rules Montenegro, but is pretty much aligned with Russia, while the House of Karadjordjevic may seek more closer ties with France.

What about some Obernovic cousins, if necessary, distant ones?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
The Obrenovic dynasty was pretty much dead with the murder of the last Obrenovic king. Who else would become the new King of Serbia that is pro-Austrian in this scenario? The House of Petrovic-Njegos rules Montenegro, but is pretty much aligned with Russia, while the House of Karadjordjevic may seek more closer ties with France.

Also, there is another option here: Specifically having A-H directly annex Serbia. It could be jointly governed by Vienna and Budapest similar to Bosnia.
 

TheRomanSlayer

Unipolarity is for Subhuman Trogdolytes
Also, there is another option here: Specifically having A-H directly annex Serbia. It could be jointly governed by Vienna and Budapest similar to Bosnia.
That just multiplies the terrorist problem for Austria-Hungary.
 

Airedale260

Well-known member
That just multiplies the terrorist problem for Austria-Hungary.

Eh…not really. The Black Hand was being sponsored by the Serb government (Karadordjevic or Obrenovic, doesn’t matter). It’s a weird case where either the actual Serb government couldn’t control its military (specifically its military intelligence unit) or else was trying to maintain deniability.

And honestly? Serbia getting overrun means the Austrians have a chance to actually capture Dragomirovic and whack his stupid ass. And, hell, if Serbia no longer exists it averts about half a dozen different wars OTHER than World War I at least, so…yay?

Russia might fume but they’re on the other side of the Carpathians, and France won’t have had a chance to interfere so the Serbs are screwed.

The biggest irony is that Franz Ferdinand acceding to the imperial throne means that they probably wind up enjoying a much more peaceful and secure way of life (Franz was interested in federalizing the Dual Monarchy to give minorities more autonomy…and the Serbs were more interested in picking fights with their neighbors because domination of the Balkans is way more important than weak stupid things like education and healthcare…)./s
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Eh…not really. The Black Hand was being sponsored by the Serb government (Karadordjevic or Obrenovic, doesn’t matter). It’s a weird case where either the actual Serb government couldn’t control its military (specifically its military intelligence unit) or else was trying to maintain deniability.

And honestly? Serbia getting overrun means the Austrians have a chance to actually capture Dragomirovic and whack his stupid ass. And, hell, if Serbia no longer exists it averts about half a dozen different wars OTHER than World War I at least, so…yay?

Russia might fume but they’re on the other side of the Carpathians, and France won’t have had a chance to interfere so the Serbs are screwed.

The biggest irony is that Franz Ferdinand acceding to the imperial throne means that they probably wind up enjoying a much more peaceful and secure way of life (Franz was interested in federalizing the Dual Monarchy to give minorities more autonomy…and the Serbs were more interested in picking fights with their neighbors because domination of the Balkans is way more important than weak stupid things like education and healthcare…)./s

I know that Russia would stay out if A-H invaded Serbia in 1904-1905, but what about in 1903? It was less weak and distracted back then. (Russia didn't stay out of it in 1914 in real life, when it was stronger.)

And would imposing a puppet regime or directly annexing Serbia be more likely for A-H? Because they would also be annexing Bosnia roughly within the same timeframe.
 

TheRomanSlayer

Unipolarity is for Subhuman Trogdolytes
Eh…not really. The Black Hand was being sponsored by the Serb government (Karadordjevic or Obrenovic, doesn’t matter). It’s a weird case where either the actual Serb government couldn’t control its military (specifically its military intelligence unit) or else was trying to maintain deniability.

And honestly? Serbia getting overrun means the Austrians have a chance to actually capture Dragomirovic and whack his stupid ass. And, hell, if Serbia no longer exists it averts about half a dozen different wars OTHER than World War I at least, so…yay?

Russia might fume but they’re on the other side of the Carpathians, and France won’t have had a chance to interfere so the Serbs are screwed.

The biggest irony is that Franz Ferdinand acceding to the imperial throne means that they probably wind up enjoying a much more peaceful and secure way of life (Franz was interested in federalizing the Dual Monarchy to give minorities more autonomy…and the Serbs were more interested in picking fights with their neighbors because domination of the Balkans is way more important than weak stupid things like education and healthcare…)./s
Possible, although at some point, wouldn't Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria also compete for influence and domination in the Balkans as well? The only major sore point left would be the status of the Serbian Orthodox Church, given that there might be a slight chance that there could be some pressure to convince a good chunk of the Orthodox Christian population to embrace Eastern Catholicism.

And there isn't any Obrenovic member left at all, given that the last possible one is an illegitimate son of King Milan. You might be able to have the Montenegrin dynasty take over Serbia, but the lack of border between them would also mean that Austria-Hungary would have to keep an eye on Montenegro as well.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
I wonder if that would result in the Serbs becoming the Balkan equivalent of the Kurds, as in being a major European ethnic group without a homeland.

They could perhaps eventually get their own separate federal unit within A-H. It would likely consist of Serbia, Bosnia, and perhaps Dalmatia. Maybe Montenegro will also want to join A-H sooner or later in such a scenario.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top