Austria-Hungary allies with France and Russia against Germany, Italy, Britain, and the Ottoman Empire

[WolfBear]

What if, after 1871, Austria-Hungary allies with France and Russia against Germany, Italy, Britain, and the Ottoman Empire? This wouldn't be as irrational as it looks since in the event of victory in a major war Austria-Hungary could conquer lucrative territories at both Germany's (Silesia) and Italy's (Venetia and Lombardy/Milan) expense. I think that France and Russia would love to have an ally like A-H, which in turn would motivate Germany to ally with Italy, Britain, and the Ottomans.

How do you see this playing out long-term and would the Ottoman Empire be the most likely long-term casus belli here?

 

[stevep]

What if, after 1871, Austria-Hungary allies with France and Russia against Germany, Italy, Britain, and the Ottoman Empire? This wouldn't be as irrational as it looks since in the event of victory in a major war Austria-Hungary could conquer lucrative territories at both Germany's (Silesia) and Italy's (Venetia and Lombardy/Milan) expense. I think that France and Russia would love to have an ally like A-H, which in turn would motivate Germany to ally with Italy, Britain, and the Ottomans.

How do you see this playing out long-term and would the Ottoman Empire be the most likely long-term casus belli here?

As I've said elsewhere I think this alignment is highly unlikely. Also can't see it occurring until Bismarck is no longer about as he's too wily to allow a combination like that to develop while he's in charge. However if something happens after that its possible that such a combination could develop. Such a grouping would pretty much force Italy into the German camp and unless German leadership is even worse than OTL probably Britain. The Ottomans are likely to join to as both potential protectors against Russia are in the same camp. Assuming that events in the far east go as OTL then add Japan to the list although possibly China as well/instead of it.

Also assuming you mean a clash developing ~1914 and the assorted powers have technological and economic development roughly parallel to OTL then:
a) Just about anything could trigger a war as there would be so many options. One obvious one if the 1st Balkan war occurs is that Britain and Germany would oppose such gains by Russian allies. However it could come with a colonial dispute, some issue in say Alsace-Lorraine, or some issue in Poland perhaps.

b) Assuming that Germany goes defensive and survives the initial invasions, especially if the opponents were as poor quality as OTL then it would be a long war. Suspect that the technological edge and British naval power would give the central powers an edge but it could end up with a war of mutual exhaustion, even more than OTL and possibly at least some of the states ending up in violent revolution.

 

[ahmed ali]

As I've said elsewhere I think this alignment is highly unlikely. Also can't see it occurring until Bismarck is no longer about as he's too wily to allow a combination like that to develop while he's in charge. However if something happens after that its possible that such a combination could develop. Such a grouping would pretty much force Italy into the German camp and unless German leadership is even worse than OTL probably Britain. The Ottomans are likely to join to as both potential protectors against Russia are in the same camp. Assuming that events in the far east go as OTL then add Japan to the list although possibly China as well/instead of it.

Also assuming you mean a clash developing ~1914 and the assorted powers have technological and economic development roughly parallel to OTL then:
a) Just about anything could trigger a war as there would be so many options. One obvious one if the 1st Balkan war occurs is that Britain and Germany would oppose such gains by Russian allies. However it could come with a colonial dispute, some issue in say Alsace-Lorraine, or some issue in Poland perhaps.

b) Assuming that Germany goes defensive and survives the initial invasions, especially if the opponents were as poor quality as OTL then it would be a long war. Suspect that the technological edge and British naval power would give the central powers an edge but it could end up with a war of mutual exhaustion, even more than OTL and possibly at least some of the states ending up in violent revolution.

You oppose making the Habsburgs as distasteful to Italy and Germany as France is, and you will agree to leave the Balkans to Russia in exchange for Italian and German territories.

The rest I agree

 

[stevep]

You oppose making the Habsburgs as distasteful to Italy and Germany as France is, and you will agree to leave the Balkans to Russia in exchange for Italian and German territories.

The rest I agree

I don't follow what your saying here? Can you clarify please?

 

[ahmed ali]

I don't follow what your saying here? Can you clarify please?

sorry for late

I mean, make Habsburg Austria follow a vindictive streak like France

(Make Bavaria a Prussian ally during the Austro-Prussian War, restore the borders of 1808, take Tyrol and Salzburg, take Prussia the Sudetenland, and establish an independent Bohemia)

This humiliation made Austria follow a line of retaliation, like France, and ally itself with France and Russia

So we get France, Russia and Austria against Germany, Italy, Britain and the Ottomans

 

[stevep]

sorry for late

I mean, make Habsburg Austria follow a vindictive streak like France

(Make Bavaria a Prussian ally during the Austro-Prussian War, restore the borders of 1808, take Tyrol and Salzburg, take Prussia the Sudetenland, and establish an independent Bohemia)

This humiliation made Austria follow a line of retaliation, like France, and ally itself with France and Russia

So we get France, Russia and Austria against Germany, Italy, Britain and the Ottomans

Ah if that happens then its likely they make their move in 1870. Plus Austria loses a lot of its German territories here, along with the power-house that is Bohemia so its going to be a lot weaker and Germany stronger.

If for whatever reason they don't then France has some serious economic strain funding both Russian and Austrian military and economic expansion. Especially with the loss of Bohemia by Austria.

Mind you thinking about it if Austria takes those losses can it keep Hungary in 1867?

 

[ahmed ali]

آه إذا حدث ذلك ، فمن المحتمل أن يتحركوا في عام 1870. بالإضافة إلى أن النمسا تفقد الكثير من أراضيها الألمانية هنا ، جنبًا إلى جنب مع بيت القوة في بوهيميا ، لذا ستكون أضعف كثيرًا وألمانيا أقوى.

إذا لم يفعلوا ذلك لأي سبب من الأسباب ، فإن فرنسا لديها بعض الضغوط الاقتصادية الخطيرة التي تمول التوسع العسكري والاقتصادي الروسي والنمساوي. خاصة مع خسارة النمسا بوهيميا.

ضع في اعتبارك التفكير في الأمر إذا تعرضت النمسا لتلك الخسائر ، فهل ستحافظ على المجر في عام 1867؟

ستصبح المجر مستقلة إذا فرض الألمان ذلك ، وهذا مرجح ، بالإضافة إلى سيطرة روسيا على غاليسيا

لن تنجح أي ثورة مجرية لأن الأجناس غير المجرية ستثور ضدها

فيما يتعلق ببوهيميا ، لا أعتقد أنه سيتم ضمها ، ومن المحتمل أن يؤسس بسمارك مملكة بوهيمية ويعين ملك ساكسونيا ملكًا على بوهيميا مقابل ضم بروسيا لساكسونيا.