ASBs ISOT the US from mid-1917 to September 1914, and the reverse

WolfBear

Well-known member
What if ASBs ISOT the US from mid-1917 to September 1914, and the reverse? In mid-1917, the US has recently declared war on the Central Powers, but then the US will be sent back to the world as it was right after Germany's defeat at the Marne--so, almost three years earlier. Would the US still want to enter WWI right away while knowing that the next three years are likely still going to be a bloodbath? Would the US aim to do anything differently in this TL? And in the other TL, what do the CPs do? Do they halt their USW campaign once they see that they're confronting the US of late 1914 rather than the US of mid-1917? Or do they still decide to go for it in an attempt to force Britain into submission?

Any thoughts on all of this? @stevep
 

stevep

Well-known member
Well initial thoughts
Option a) The US has declared war and is psychologically committed to a war. They knew by 1917 what kind of bloodbath the conflict was so I don't know if that would deter them. Also their aware of the German actions that brought them into the conflict, such as USW, support of sabotage attacks in the US, the Zimmerman Telegraph along with other German actions. However since they would be going against a still very powerful Germany even assuming a ~15 month period before their committing forces in numbers their likely to take much heavier losses compared to OTL. However they and also any allied military personnel brought back with them do have some idea of what does and doesn't work and probably some details as well as production of some items. It would be interesting to see what the allies think of events to come such as the widespread use of poison gas and prolonged trench warfare.

One big issue likely to occur between the allies and the US would be the issue of war debts as to 1917 US the allies owe it a lot of money but the 1914 allies haven't occurred those debts or received any services for them.

There are a lot of possible butterflies here. Does news from the future stop the Ottomans joining the war? I suspect not as the Young Turk leadership is already pretty committed to the CPs but could see some stiff warnings about the fate of the Armenians. More likely it might deter the Bulgarians although in summer 1917 - which is what they will heard about - the CPs position isn't looking to bad with Russia in turmoil, Serbia, Belgium and a large chunk of France under CP occupation.

Similarly would the allies still try the Gallipoli campaign or would they try doing it differently. How does the RN respond to details about Jutland or the USW campaign? France about Verdun and the 1917 military strikes. Russia about the collapse of Czarist power? Germany about what they hear about the course of the war?

Overall I think this greatly favours the allies as they get a belligerent US on their side and also more knowledge of the TL the 1917 US has come from than the CPs are likely to.

Option b) - This is going to be more confusing for everybody. The allies have lost the US as a clear ally although news about 'future events' from US diplomats abroad could move them significantly towards a friendly neutrality towards the allies. Also they have lost their debts to the US and have their assets in the US restored. However they have also lost a good bit of the build up of a war industry in the US.

The situation here is more favourable to the CPs but still not a lost war for the EPs so it could go either way.
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
Option a)

If the US is moved from May, June or July 1917 to a September 1914 world and seasonally appropriate weather, that can cause a drastic shortening of the United States 1917 growing season, grain crop, and harvest, a big problem for the Americans and whole Entente.

@stevep - you mention the Ottomans, or in your estimate the Bulgarians, being deterred from joining in. Especially from receiving a mid-1917 vantage point, might downtime Italy and Romania be deterred from joining in? But at the same time future knowledge makes the CP think about perhaps preempting.

Option b) - This is going to be more confusing for everybody.

Agreed. However, I think in answer to the OP, the Germans are going to be too irrevocably committed to the U-Boat weapon to drop it, even after learning of the change in America. The strong British blockade and withering British assaults in Flanders will convince the Germans they cannot abandon the U-Boat weapon and that they just have to play it out and win with it before the Americans can intervene in the war effectively. Possibly, if the Germans continue with it through the Bolshevik October revolution, and downtime America has not declared war yet, Germany might offer to suspend or halt attacks on neutral shipping if America stays neutral. - But it will be awful hard for the USA to trust Germany's word by this point and tolerate that many months of ship sinkings. And it will be tempting for the Germans to see if they can redeploy forces from the east for a victory in the west before America can send over relevant numbers of trained and equipped men to the western front.
 

stevep

Well-known member
If the US is moved from May, June or July 1917 to a September 1914 world and seasonally appropriate weather, that can cause a drastic shortening of the United States 1917 growing season, grain crop, and harvest, a big problem for the Americans and whole Entente.

Good point.

@stevep - you mention the Ottomans, or in your estimate the Bulgarians, being deterred from joining in. Especially from receiving a mid-1917 vantage point, might downtime Italy and Romania be deterred from joining in? But at the same time future knowledge makes the CP think about perhaps preempting.

Also a good point. They could try attacking Italy or Romania early but that's likely to backfire. However until the 1915 victories in Serbia and Russian Poland how much spare capacity in terms of troops, supplies etc they have. Also an early attack on Romania would not only stretch the CPs further but without Bulgaria already in the CP and German forces based there plus the Russian army still in decent - for it anyway - condition that could be a tough fight. Or do you mean something different. Plus while the 1917 US knows what happens its still not happened in the 1914 world so despite what their hearing from the US it would still seem like naked aggression by the CPs which would unify their opponents.

With Turkey I would expect it to still join the CPs as the ruling clique are already heavily committed but they might get strong pressure, including possibly from Berlin, not to commit widespread slaughter of minorities. Bulgaria with its dispute with Serbia could even move earlier but that would leave them exposed if Serbia gets aid. An interesting situation would be what happens in Greece where effectively the allies organised pretty much a coup backed by the Prime Minister against the king who was pro-German/hardline neutral depending on what source you read.

Overall I think the EPs will do better with 1917 information because they will have markedly better access to it. Both because the US is by this time distinctly hostile to the CPs and because EP people have more access to the US itself including a lot of people in the country. There might be some German-American groups who may want to help the CPs but their going to have difficulty getting info to the beleaguered powers.

Agreed. However, I think in answer to the OP, the Germans are going to be too irrevocably committed to the U-Boat weapon to drop it, even after learning of the change in America. The strong British blockade and withering British assaults in Flanders will convince the Germans they cannot abandon the U-Boat weapon and that they just have to play it out and win with it before the Americans can intervene in the war effectively. Possibly, if the Germans continue with it through the Bolshevik October revolution, and downtime America has not declared war yet, Germany might offer to suspend or halt attacks on neutral shipping if America stays neutral. - But it will be awful hard for the USA to trust Germany's word by this point and tolerate that many months of ship sinkings. And it will be tempting for the Germans to see if they can redeploy forces from the east for a victory in the west before America can send over relevant numbers of trained and equipped men to the western front.

One factor here might be US people including sailors and military people outside the US at the point of the ISOT. Especially anyone who has been on a ship, US flagged or otherwise sunk by U boats. Its going to complicate matters because many of them will have their 1914 equivalents now in the US so there's going to be a lot of personal and legal strife resulting there. Not to mention its going to have an impact with 1914 people who get told "in 1915/16/17 you got killed by a U boat attack".

However the EPs will be hit by the fact that the US is now - at least in its eyes - at peace and also that it hasn't gotten the development and knowledge from 3 years of allied purchases.

One issue here is that since Germany is at war with the US there's likely to be some US ships sunk before Berlin, let alone its sub commanders realise that something has changed. This could change opinion fairly quickly in the US.

Does the ISOT in either case affect US people/forces outside the continental US [and possibly Hawaii]? If not then there's going to be people living overseas and in the 1914 to 1917 world probably a fair amount of military personnel who are aware their at war with Germany and could further complicate matters. Not sure when the USN started supporting ASW efforts in numbers or sent a battle squadron to Scapa to join the Grand Fleet. In the 1917 to 1914 the people overseas are likely to be less in number because you will have less military abroad. However still potentially forces at sea or in the Philippines and the like.
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
Does the ISOT in either case affect US people/forces outside the continental US [and possibly Hawaii]? If not then there's going to be people living overseas and in the 1914 to 1917 world probably a fair amount of military personnel who are aware their at war with Germany and could further complicate matters. Not sure when the USN started supporting ASW efforts in numbers or sent a battle squadron to Scapa to join the Grand Fleet.

US naval ships and personnel engaged far, far more speedily than Army personnel in WWI after the declaration of war - within mere weeks. This is largely unnoticed because the fleet battles were over and the US was reenforcing Allied naval supremacy. Importantly, that supremacy was only established on the surface, and took months of combined effort to apply against Germany's undersea assets.
 

Buba

A total creep
Entente, seeing how much in debt to the USA they are, and learning of February Revolution, make peace with CP?
And refuse to pay any outstanding debt incurred after VIII.1914 :p

U-boots? Please count how many there were in the KM in 3Q14. If you take off your socks and wiggle your toes you can probably count them on your wee extremities, even without being blessed by the Gods of Chaos.

Remember - one third can be on station. Another third is coming or going, while the remaining third is in port preparing for a new sortie.
 
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stevep

Well-known member
Entente, seeing how much in debt to the USA they are, and learning of February Revolution, make peace with CP?
And refuse to pay any outstanding debt incurred after VIII.1914 :p

Are you referring to 1917 US to 1914? Think so but not clear. I would say that the 2nd part would be pretty much certain as they haven't taken out those loans or obtained any of the equipment/supplies etc their 1917 versions have. [The 1917 US would still have the duplicated gold now in their possession and other assets inside the US that were transferred from allied ownership.

On the 1st part not so sure for two reasons.
a) It takes two to tango and would Germany agree to any terms agreeable to the EPs?

b) They would probably decide that with knowledge of the 'future' they could do markedly better than the version of the EP that the 1917 US came from. Most especially Nickolas is likely to decide to avoid the revolution although given his personality he could actually accelerate it.

True the CPs will also have knowledge of future events but the EPs will have greater access to such knowledge between their greater representation in the US and ability to try and restrict the passage of knowledge to the CPs.

U-boots? Please count how many there were in the KM in 3Q14. If you take off your socks and wiggle your toes you can probably count them on your wee extremities, even without being blessed by the Gods of Chaos.

Remember - one third can be on station. Another third is coming or going, while the remaining third is in port preparing for a new sortie.

:LOL: - Not sure who made that typo but a good point. Even without possible early reluctance to go to USW the German sub arm is a lot weaker in 1914 and from their naval representatives in 1917 US the allies can probably push earlier for the use of convoys and other protective measures.
 

Buba

A total creep
U-boot was not a typo but the German spelling - sorry for the unintended yet amusing confusion!
 
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